The -9.1% achieved by the Emilia-Romagna GDP in 2020 already seems a distant memory. There is an optimism that has not been breathed for some time in the declarations of the industrialists and in the forecasts for 2021: the year of the post-pandemic restart will see Emilia-Romagna return to excel, driving the growth of the country with a record + 6% (5.3% in Italy) which will continue in 2022 with a further increase of 4.2%, says Prometeia. Exports, despite the decline recorded in 2020, confirm two other regional records: the highest internationalization index of the country (13,698 euros of exports per resident, almost double compared to the Italian 7,269 euros) and the strongest contribution to the national trade balance , which owes almost half of its surplus (the difference between export and import) to the 27.5 billion of the Via Emilia.
An unusual optimism
“I am particularly satisfied with these data, because despite the penalization suffered on international markets (regional exports -8.2%), the first half of 2021 has just ended with a surge in orders and the balance between optimists and pessimists on the outlook growth for the second half of the year reaches over 40 points ”, says Pietro Ferrari, the president of Confindustria Emilia-Romagna in the meeting before the holidays to present scenarios and the 2021 Booklet on the economy. The numbers released by Prometeia corroborate confidence, despite the increases in infections: exports will grow in 2021 by 13.9% (+ 6.1% in 2022), predicts the Bologna study center, and investments by + 17.9% (+ 8.6% in 2022), driven by the industrial sector, which this year should reach a + 10.6% increase (+ 3.3% in 2022). its ceramic, automotive, motor, biomedical and food specializations to show the greatest dynamism, with a + 7.4% GDP growth that will allow the territory to return to pre-Covid levels in 2021, one year earlier than the rest of the region . “However, we have two unknowns that weigh – underlines the president, a Modenese engineering entrepreneur – that is the trend of infections and that of raw materials, due to external international events but also to the replenishment of warehouses, with increases that are eating up margins and making it difficult to find even materials previously considered commodities such as iron and cement ». However, Ferrari remains positive and assures «that there will be no Gkn case here and the release of the layoffs will not cause landslides. Our problem is that we don’t have enough workers, not too many ”. And the 28,000 extra employees expected by Prometeia by 2024 intersect with the fears of companies of having the real obstacle to development precisely in the shortage of young people and talents, between investments arriving both from industry and from the research and research system. aging of the population. Via Emilia is the only “strong innovator” region for the EU to frame the prospects of the industry – the only Italian region included as a “strong innovator” in the EU’s Regiona Innovation Scoreboard 2021 on innovation – is the Pact for work and the climate signed by all the economic-social-institutional partners of the Via Emilia, “a pact that is an act of trust and a very tiring commitment for companies to respect – concludes Ferrari – and now we also have the further request for EU to get to zero emissions in 2050, which risks pushing to relocate to areas where the rules are less stringent and burdensome. Because it should not be forgotten that Europe with 550 million inhabitants produces less than 9% of global CO2 emissions and while we tighten the constraints, both China and the US are inaugurating coal-fired megacentres: they will become increasingly competitive in prices and increasingly polluting. , our companies will be the first in the class for respect for the environment and on the margins of the market because they will be crushed by costs ».
Loading…