(Original title: Holding currency or holding shares for the festival? 70% of private equity is optimistic about the market in 2023, and these directions are the key points)
Since November 2022, the U.S. dollar index has begun to fall, the renminbi has started to appreciate, and the domestic epidemic prevention and control policy has been adjusted, and the financing policy of the real estate industry has been improved. Under a series of positive stimuli, A shares began to rebound and repair the market. As of January 17, 2023, the SSE 50 has rebounded the most, with a bottom rebound of over 20%, entering a technical bull market.
Since the beginning of the new year in 2023, driven by the “buy, buy, buy” of northbound funds, the major A-share indexes have accelerated their upward attack, all hitting new highs in stages. Wire.
Data source: Choice, as of January 17
In the face of the Spring Festival holiday, the northbound funds are “like a broken bamboo”. As of January 17, the net northbound purchases since 2023 have reached nearly 90 billion yuan, which is close to the level of last year. Domestic capital has already entered the “holiday” mode, but as the index has been rising all the way, many investors with light positions feel “out of reach”, and investors with heavy positions are also considering whether to “get off” when the market rises.
Faced with the long Spring Festival holiday and the current “sweeping goods” model of northbound funds, many investors are quite confused about holding currency or holding shares for the holiday.
More than 60% of private equity supports heavy positions or full positions for the holidays
According to the relevant survey data, 64% of the private equity companies participating in the survey chose heavy positions or full positions for the festival, believing that the mid-level A-share market has already started, and there is a high probability that A-shares will continue to fluctuate upward after the festival; 27% of private equity companies choose medium positions for the festival, thinking Structural opportunities in the market are still worth looking at, but proper attention should be paid to defense; 9% of private equity companies choose to liquidate their positions or hold currency for the festival, believing that the market has limited further upward space, and there are still many uncertainties in the external market fluctuations during the long holiday.
Private equity after the festival is most optimistic about the growth sector
When it comes to investment opportunities in which sectors are you optimistic about after the festival? According to the survey results of private equity ranking network, 41% of private equity investors are optimistic about new energy, pan-technology and other main growth lines; Each style and each main line will gradually rotate, and the overall opportunities are relatively balanced; 11% of private equity investors are optimistic about undervalued sectors such as finance, real estate, and cycles.
70% of private equity is optimistic about the market in 2023
Looking forward to the performance of the A-share market for the whole year of 2023, according to the survey results of the private equity ranking network, 70% of the private equity companies are optimistic about the market in 2023, including 14% of the private equity companies are optimistic about the quarter, and believe that the market is expected to rise sharply throughout the year. Possibility of bullishness, 56% of private equity companies are relatively optimistic about the market in 2023, believing that although the index’s growth rate is relatively limited, the overall market will fluctuate and strengthen throughout the year; 23% of private equity companies are neutral, believing that the index performance still needs to be improved Look, the focus is on market structural opportunities; 7% of private equity investors hold a cautious view, believing that there are many internal and external uncertainties and risk factors, and the market may rise first and then decline throughout the year.
Jurong Assets: This year is expected to repeat 2019, optimistic about the post-epidemic recovery sectors such as big consumption and medicine
Jurong Asset Investment Director Wang Lei believes that the improvement trend of the current macroeconomic fundamentals remains unchanged, and the peak of the national epidemic has passed. After the Spring Festival, it is expected that the service industry will continue to recover and the job market will be active. Startups will also recover significantly. Under the background of low stock market valuation and continuous improvement of the economy, people tend to hold heavy stocks for the festival.
Fundamentally, consumption will usher in a definite rebound in 2023, and the previously suppressed travel and social needs will be significantly released. In addition, as the economy stabilizes and improves, residents’ consumption ability and willingness to consume are expected to gradually increase. In terms of policy, the Central Economic Work Conference also puts consumption in the first place. Wang Lei judged that the pace of improvement in demand after the holiday may be confirmed at an accelerated pace, and the inflection point of fundamentals and policy orientation are expected to continue to resonate. With the peak speed of the epidemic situation in various places and the speed of travel recovery successively exceeding expectations, the valuations of the post-epidemic recovery sectors such as large consumption and medicine have increased, but they are still at historically low levels.
In 23Q2, the post-epidemic restoration sector is facing a low base. Under the catalysis of the peak holiday seasons of Qingming and May Day, performance restoration is expected to be further realized. Wang Lei believes that 23Q1 is still a good investment window for the post-epidemic restoration sector.
Wang Lei believes that the restart of the service industry in 2023 will significantly boost GDP growth. It is estimated that the annual GDP will be close to 6%, and the profitability of the broader market will continue to improve, which is expected to be around 10%. At the same time, if the valuation of the market is restored to the historical central level, with the loose liquidity environment, the stock market is expected to rise by more than 30%, repeating the bull market in 2019.
Chen Xingwen of Kurosaki Capital: In 2023, we may welcome the “buffalo market” of policy and currency “two horses running in parallel”
Chen Xingwen, founding partner of Herosaki Capital, believes that after A-shares have experienced repeated polishing at 3000-3300 points in 2022, the bubbles of individual stocks have been fully squeezed out, and the bottom structure is very solid. In line with the expectation of a strong economic recovery this year, A-shares have everything The starting basis for the uplink. Externally, the recent interest rate hike in the United States has temporarily come to an end, and capital outflows have been effectively alleviated; internally, in line with expectations of a strong economic recovery, domestic monetary quantitative easing is progressing steadily, and the continuous deepening of reform and opening up, and the expansion of land-port connectivity will further boost The RMB continues to appreciate, and the RMB has become an “international safe haven”.
Chen Xingwen believes that in 2023, A-shares will be a “buffalo market” where policy and currency “two horses run side by side”. In 2019, the market will run out of a volatile upward structural overall upward recovery market.
In terms of specific sector selection, Chen Xingwen of Herosaki Capital believes that we should adhere to the growth track of upward structural repair under the high allocation and strong recovery market, and the new energy sector is expected to usher in a strong return. Domestic new energy vehicles and energy storage batteries will continue to iterate to produce world-class products, which is still the focus of Kurosaki Capital’s layout.
At the same time, Kurosaki Capital will deploy the leading stocks of the Internet platform economy under the strong recovery of consumption, because they are the “core promoters” of the efficient recovery of consumption. The strong policies of the major platform economies will boost and restart the market, which will usher in a new round of continuous upward valuation recovery.
Mingshi Partner Fund: It is expected to usher in a structural recovery bull
Mingshi Partners believes that this year’s market is still dominated by structural features. Many factors have undergone directional changes this year, so we are full of expectations for this year’s market. Conservatively speaking, this year’s market should be a structural recovery bull.
In terms of sector direction, this year we are mainly optimistic about five areas including medicine, general security, new energy, automobile (new energy vehicle), and high-end manufacturing. Looking at the pharmaceutical industry as a whole, we believe that the current stage is the bottom of history, and it is expected to usher in a double-click opportunity this year. Medicine is a golden track. After two years of adjustments, it was beaten down because of the centralized procurement policy that killed valuations and performance. But after the big waves washed away, many good companies emerged, the most typical ones being innovative drugs and innovative medical devices.
There are three cores in the generalized security direction: computers, military industry, and semiconductors. The computer direction is expected to usher in a double-click driven by fundamentals and events. The industry boom in the military industry is expected to continue to run through, and the subdivision of black technology has performance and growth. Under the background of military-civilian integration, there are many opportunities and targets for market space expansion, which are attractive in valuation, such as airborne missiles and other related directions . For the direction of semiconductors, it is necessary to comprehensively consider the growth of its global demand cycle, domestic expansion demand cycle, and domestic substitution rate.
New energy in a broad sense is mainly an energy system represented by light, wind, storage, and hydrogen. This is also the direction of the organization’s heavy warehouse in the past two years. From the dimension of 2 to 3 years, it is more optimistic about perovskite and heterojunction. Newer technology direction. The sea breeze has a certain direction and space within 2 to 3 years. In the entire new energy vehicle, the direction of intelligence is a subdivision direction worthy of attention. This area has just started, and it is far from the end of the industry, and there will be many targets worth exploring. The whole vehicle has the attribute of manufacturing industry, but on the other hand it belongs to consumer goods. For the involution of consumer goods, the surviving companies will have a wave of good opportunities.
There are many small and beautiful companies in high-end manufacturing or new manufacturing, especially in the direction of specialization, special innovation and 688 on the Science and Technology Innovation Board. On the one hand, in terms of the competition pattern, these companies have “unique skills” Scarcity; on the other hand, due to domestic substitution, industrial upgrading and other reasons, the downstream segment market has a good growth rate. From the perspective of subdivision, such as service robots, metaverse, satellite Internet, pan-domestic substitution, new equipment, new materials, etc., we will explore investment opportunities from the bottom up.
CEIBS: Optimistic about the four major directions
Ten-billion private equity Zhongou Ruibo believes that A-shares are currently in the mid-level upward process. Although the improvement of economic fundamentals may take time, the market bottom has a high probability. At present, the strength of the policy is not oriented toward strong stimulus, and the increase may be relatively limited. The follow-up still needs to track the strength of the policy. If there is a policy that exceeds expectations, it can be seen as a high line. Therefore, during this period, alpha income can be obtained by selecting individual stocks.
Opportunities mainly exist in the following aspects: the field of high dividends and low valuation, the field of cycle reversal, the field of epidemic reversal, and the field of policy reversal.
Zhuozhu Investment: The annual increase may be limited, optimistic about finance and big consumption
Zhuozhu Investment believes that at the current point of time, the A-share market is still in the embryonic stage of the economic reversal cycle. Although the market has experienced a significant rebound recently, looking back at the historical PE of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, the current dynamic PE valuation of 11.9 times is still in a rare extreme underestimation range. From the perspective of capital, the recent market rebound is obviously driven by foreign capital. The investment perspective of overseas funds is more inclined to the medium and long-term. With overseas investors regaining confidence in being long on the Chinese economy, the rebound after the Spring Festival will continue.
The overall market is expected to fluctuate and strengthen throughout the year. At present, the pricing power of foreign capital has been improved in the short term, which will promote the continued rise of blue-chip companies dominated by heavyweight stocks, but its marginal impact is bound to gradually diminish. Although the market may strengthen throughout the year, in the context of lack of incremental funds, the index’s rise is relatively limited, and the forward index’s rise still depends on the process of economic recovery.
In terms of specific sector selection, Zhuo Zhu Investment is optimistic about the financial sector dominated by banks, as well as large consumer sectors. Zhuozhu Investment believes that in the context of the improvement of the real estate financing environment, the risk of asset quality deterioration that suppressed bank valuations in the past is expected to gradually ease. At the same time, under the promotion of policies, the recovery of corporate investment and residents’ consumption behavior will gradually improve the growth rate of credit scale in the banking industry. Banks are also a sector that foreign capital has always favored. Driven by overseas funds and combined with the industry’s overall valuation advantage, the rise of the banking sector will continue throughout the year. White goods, duty-free, liquor and other industries in big consumption are also sectors favored by foreign capital, and will continue to benefit from the economic recovery after the festival and are expected to rise.
Hongfeng Assets Huang Yi: The post-holiday style may be biased towards the growth sector
Huang Yi, investment director of Hongfeng Assets, believes that A-shares have undergone nearly 20 months of shock adjustments, and currently have dual advantages in valuation and liquidity. Market valuation and sentiment are at extremely low levels in history, and risk premiums are relatively high. As the “steady growth” policy continues to increase and the growth cycle continues to rise, the opportunities in the domestic stock market will outweigh the risks in the coming year. If the impact of the follow-up epidemic is significantly reduced or overseas inflation improves and interest rate hikes end, domestic A-shares may have a clear advantage among major global asset classes and usher in a rising market.
At present, whether it is domestic or overseas, it is more favorable for A shares. The first wave of the epidemic after the domestic epidemic control was relaxed has reached its peak. The current epidemic situation is stabilizing, and the interference of the epidemic on the economy will rapidly weaken. It is expected that consumption and economic recovery will be seen after the Spring Festival. Overseas, the Fed’s interest rate hike is coming to an end, and the RMB has continued to appreciate against the US dollar recently, prompting funds from the north to continue to buy RMB assets.
It is expected that A shares will continue to fluctuate upward after the Spring Festival. In January, the market is in a time window for style switching. At the end of last year, the market showed an obvious undervalued value style. After entering January, the market style tends to be balanced. It is expected that after the Spring Festival, the market style will turn to a growth-oriented style. The main reason is that the early transactions in the financial real estate, consumption and other sectors are expected to recover. After the stock price has risen sharply, it has included a large recovery expectation, and it will enter the verification period later. After the Spring Festival, the new energy industry will enter the peak season again, and the technology industry will also see the introduction of industrial support policies after the Spring Festival.
Investing in Yi Xiaobin in a timely manner: A shares will fluctuate upward
Yi Xiaobin, Director of Equity Investment at Shunshi Investment, believes that after a major adjustment in 2022, there will definitely be a lot of opportunities in the market in the Year of the Rabbit. Whether it is valuation, liquidity, or risk appetite and policy support, it will support market volatility However, due to the early stage of economic recovery, the market will show some hesitation, and the index’s rise will be limited.
During the Spring Festival, the main focus is on holding shares for the festival. This is mainly based on the expectation that the market will continue to improve in the future. However, considering that there has been a pull-up before the festival, in order to properly defend and avoid short-term corrections, it is not recommended to operate with full positions. First of all, the key factors restricting economic recovery have been fundamentally improved, but the path and strength are not clear, and it will take time to verify; second, the market presents structural opportunities, and the seesaw effect will continue. Respond to market changes; third, as valuations continue to recover, many listed companies need real performance support to continue to rise.
In terms of configuration direction, Shunshi Investment Yi Xiaobin believes that in 2023, there will be opportunities for all sectors, but more will be reflected in technological innovation, product iteration and industry segmentation. The previous beta market may be difficult to appear, and the requirements for configuration will be met. It’s more balanced.
Umily invests in He Jinlong: Structural market rotation is more likely
He Jinlong, general manager of Umily Investment, believes that the rotation performance of the structural market of major sectors in 2023 can be expected, and extended to the whole year, the credit data at the end of 2022 shows the visibility of the A-share market’s full-year profit recovery. It is not high, and the domestic GDP growth rate is expected to reach more than 5.5% in 2023. It is necessary to follow up the future performance report to disclose whether the market and macro data have positive performance to continue to boost market confidence, thereby releasing market energy and contributing to the continued rise of the stock market. Provide liquidity support.
Since the end of last year, the market has shown strong industry rotation characteristics, and it has a seesaw market. In the absence of a very obvious increase in the market, the possibility of stock game injects greater possibility into the performance of the structural market.
With the inflection point of negative factors, according to historical performance, growth sectors often perform better around the Spring Festival, and after two years of callbacks, some undervalued industries are more cost-effective. The market’s increase in β-income space is also a structural rotation under the policy of stabilizing growth. offer greater possibilities.
Mingze Investment Xi Peng: Proper defense is required before the festival
Xi Peng, manager of Mingze Investment Fund, believes that with the recent optimization of epidemic prevention and control policies and the adjustment of entry and exit policies, positive signals have been released, which has enhanced the confidence of global investors in China’s economic development, and the expectation of my country’s GDP growth in 2023 has been raised; Observational data shows that the pent-up consumer demand in the past has surged. In December last year, the price decline of new commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities stabilized, and the real estate market picked up. One of them is that geopolitical tensions have been eased, risk premiums have been reduced, corporate profit forecasts for 2023 have been gradually raised, market sentiment has warmed up, and market structural opportunities are still worth looking at.
However, it is still necessary to pay due attention to defense before the Spring Festival. The risk factor lies in the possible twists and turns in the subsequent fight against the new crown virus. The spread of the virus may still affect local production and supply chains for a period of time. The full recovery of the economy will be a gradual process. From a global perspective, China’s economy is expected to take the lead in entering the recovery cycle. However, the global economic growth rate in 2023 is expected to be lowered, and the subsequent uncertainty in demand from developed economies may make exports face certain variables.