Original title: New social financing of 910.2 billion yuan in April financial support is stable
Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 14th. China Securities Journal published an article on the 14th, “In April, 910.2 billion yuan of new social financing was added to financial support.” According to the article, financial statistics released by the People’s Bank of China on May 13 showed that the increase in social financing in April was 910.2 billion yuan. The growth of RMB loans slowed down in the month, which in turn led to a smaller increase in the scale of social financing that month than expected.
Experts believe that the new social financing and credit data in April were lower than expected, reflecting that various unfavorable factors such as the epidemic have temporarily suppressed financing demand, but there are also indicators such as broad money (M2) that exceeded expectations, showing that monetary and credit policies The effect of forward force, financial support for the real economy is stable. The follow-up monetary policy is expected to continue to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustment, stabilize credit, reduce costs, and strengthen support for key areas and weak links. As the policy effects of efficiently coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development gradually emerge, positive changes will be reflected in financial statistics in May and subsequent.
(Photo description) File photo, issued by Xinhua News Agency
Due to factors such as the epidemic, credit growth decreased year-on-year
The increase in the scale of social financing in April was 910.2 billion yuan, which was less than that of the previous month and the same period of the previous year. Institutional analysis shows that the decline in new social financing in April was mainly dragged down by the decrease in new RMB loans that month. In April, RMB loans increased by 645.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 823.1 billion yuan year-on-year. In March, RMB loans increased by 3.13 trillion yuan.
From credit to social financing, behind the decline in financial data is mainly the temporary restraint of financing demand caused by various unfavorable factors such as the epidemic. In response to a reporter’s question, the relevant person in charge of the People’s Bank of China pointed out that the growth of RMB loans in April slowed down significantly, and the increase was much lower than that of the same period last year, reflecting that the impact of the recent epidemic on the real economy has become more apparent, with shortages of superimposed factors and rising production costs such as raw materials. As a result, the operating difficulties of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have increased, and the demand for effective financing has dropped significantly. “The new round of epidemic has caused negative disturbances to economic activities such as investment, consumption, and production. In addition, the real estate market is still in a state of adjustment, and the effective financing needs of enterprises and the residential sector have declined.” said Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Orient Jincheng.
In addition, from the perspective of seasonality, Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst at Everbright Securities, analyzed that new RMB loans in April are usually lower than those in March. In March this year, RMB loans grew rapidly, and the new increase reached a high point in March over the years, and the decline in April will therefore appear to be slightly larger. “It is not recommended that investors pay too much attention to the monthly credit data.” Zhang Xu said that the cumulative value is a more practical indicator when judging the amount of new credit.
The above-mentioned person in charge of the People’s Bank of China pointed out that the new loans in the first four months were 8.9 trillion yuan, the second highest level in history. “Judging from the financial statistics in April, the financial support for the real economy is solid,” the official said.
M2 year-on-year growth exceeded expectations
The financial support for the real economy was reflected in some other financial performance indicators in April. For example, the year-on-year growth rate of narrow money (M1) and M2 both accelerated in the month. Among them, M2 increased by 10.5% year-on-year and returned to more than 10%, exceeding market expectations.
“The year-on-year growth rate of M2 in April exceeded market expectations, mainly for three reasons.” Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, analyzed that first, the implementation of the RRR cut in April will help increase the currency multiplier and strengthen the currency derivative effect; second, the fiscal policy is active The third is that the year-on-year growth rate of M2 in April last year was 8.1%, which was the low point at that time, forming a low base and making a certain contribution to the recovery of M2 year-on-year growth rate in April this year.
Many institutions also noticed that fiscal deposits increased by 41 billion yuan in April, a decrease of 536.7 billion yuan year-on-year. April is a traditional tax month, and fiscal deposits tend to increase more that month. Institutional analysis shows that the sharp decrease in fiscal deposits in April this year should be the result of increased fiscal expenditures, which in turn has something to do with the People’s Bank of China’s acceleration of turning over the balance of profits. Data from the People’s Bank of China shows that the People’s Bank of China has turned over 800 billion yuan since 2022, and the annual profit will exceed 1.1 trillion yuan, which will directly enhance the financial resources available to the government. The year-on-year decrease in fiscal deposits reflects the coordinated linkage of monetary policy and fiscal policy, supporting the relief of enterprises, stabilizing employment and ensuring people’s livelihood, and making joint efforts to stabilize the macroeconomic market.
In addition, regarding the further acceleration of the M1 year-on-year growth rate in April, Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher of the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that this indicates that corporate deposits have increased recently and cash flow conditions have improved.
Step up the implementation of prudent monetary policy
Risks and challenges do exist, but there is no doubt about the confidence and determination to face difficulties. “Recently, the epidemic and the Ukraine crisis have led to an increase in risks and challenges, and the complexity, severity and uncertainty of my country’s economic development environment have increased.” The aforementioned person in charge of the People’s Bank of China said that the People’s Bank of China will place stable growth in a more prominent position. We will increase the implementation of a prudent monetary policy, give better play to the dual functions of monetary policy tools in terms of total volume and structure, speed up the implementation of policies and measures that have been introduced, and actively plan for incremental policy tools to support economic operation within a reasonable range.
The person in charge introduced three major focus points for monetary policy regulation in the next step: stabilizing the total amount of credit, reducing financing costs, and strengthening support for key areas and weak links.
In the face of fluctuations in credit data, the person in charge said that the People’s Bank of China will comprehensively use a variety of monetary policy tools to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of the growth of total credit, and maintain the growth rate of money supply and social financing scale. Nominal economic growth basically matched. Macro leverage will increase, but remain within a reasonable range. In terms of cost reduction, it will give full play to the efficiency of the reform of the interest rate quoted in the loan market, play the role of the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, and promote the reduction of the cost of bank liabilities, thereby driving the reduction of corporate financing costs.
According to industry analysts, the “construction map” of the monetary policy in the next stage is already clear-increasing credit issuance, pushing down loan interest rates through the market-oriented reform of deposit interest rates, and increasing targeted support for tools such as re-lending. Gao Ruidong, managing director and chief macroeconomist of Everbright Securities, predicts that the People’s Bank of China will promote the reduction of deposit interest rates by financial institutions by leveraging the market-oriented adjustment mechanism of deposit interest rates, thereby reducing the debt cost of financial institutions, and promoting the further decline of LPR quotations and loan interest rates. . In addition, Wang Qing predicts that the scale of re-loans for small and medium-sized enterprises is expected to be further expanded in the future, and a special re-loan and re-discount plan similar to 2020 will be introduced in time to implement precise support for industries and enterprises seriously affected by the epidemic and stabilize the job market.
“Faced with the April credit data, it is necessary to remain calm, not to evade the problem, but also to strengthen confidence.” Zhang Xu said that many of the latest and gratifying changes were not reflected in the April data. (Finish)Return to Sohu, see more
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