Moderate-Intensity El Niño Event Expected to Form This Autumn, Peak Likely in October to December
September 6, 2023
The National Climate Center has revealed that the equatorial central and eastern Pacific are currently experiencing El Niño conditions. Experts predict that a moderate-intensity eastern-type El Niño event is likely to form this autumn, with its peak expected between October and December this year.
Analysis of ocean monitoring data in July 2023 indicates that sea surface temperatures (SST) in most parts of the equatorial Pacific are higher compared to normal years. The warm water center in the eastern Pacific is especially concerning, with temperatures surpassing 2.0°C above average. The sea temperature index in the Niño 3.4 zone has risen to 1.11°C, representing a 0.18°C increase from the previous month. Over the last three months (May to July), the sliding average of the index stands at 0.84°C. These findings confirm the presence of El Niño conditions in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific.
Regarding atmospheric conditions, July 2023 saw the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) decrease by 0.82 compared to the previous month, reaching -0.52. Additionally, convection has been active throughout most of the equatorial Pacific. These atmospheric characteristics further support the existence of an El Niño event.
Based on forecasts generated by dynamic climate models and statistical methods from both domestic and foreign sources, experts anticipate a continuing rise in sea temperatures in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific over the next three months. This projection aligns with the formation of a moderate-intensity eastern-type El Niño event in the upcoming fall season. The peak of this event is most likely to occur between October and December.
El Niño events can have significant impacts on global weather patterns, leading to extreme weather conditions in various regions. It is crucial for governments, organizations, and individuals to stay informed about these developments and take appropriate measures to mitigate potential risks. The National Climate Center will continue to monitor the progression of this El Niño event and provide regular updates as necessary.
Stay tuned for further information on the development and potential consequences of this anticipated El Niño event.