© Reuters. A number of brokerage-themed ETFs rebounded to a nearly three-month high. Funds are optimistic about the rebound of brokerage stocks. The brokerage sector drives the A-share Independence Day market.
Financial Associated Press, June 14 (Reporter Zhou Xiaoya) Today, A shares out of the V-shaped reversal market, the broader market rose sharply in the afternoon, and as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by more than 1%. In terms of sector performance, the securities sector exploded in the afternoon, and the sector index rose by more than 5%, reversing the trend.
In addition, the themes of price increases represented by silicone, oil and gas, and coal continued to be active. Automobiles and resource products with price increases once again became the target of grouping, and resource stocks such as silicone, coal, and chemicals were active.
Judging from the performance of the fund market, a number of brokerage-themed ETF products are among the top gainers. At the same time, coal, resources and other themed ETFs have also turned red. However, from the perspective of capital flow, the overall net inflow of these ETFs It is not large, and some products even have a small net outflow. From the perspective of stock performance, Wind data shows that as of the close on June 14, the main capital of CITIC Securities had a net inflow of 151 million yuan, ranking 22nd in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets in terms of net inflow, accounting for 3.64% of the day’s transaction value; Oriental Fortune The main capital is a net outflow of 204 million yuan, and the net outflow ranks 26th in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, accounting for 1.97% of the day’s transaction value.
Regarding the rise of the brokerage sector, the market has a view or a good opportunity. So, how do public funders view the current market?
Brokerage ETFs lead the market
On the whole, many securities company-themed ETFs were among the top gainers, among which securities ETF funds rose 6.4% today; nine products including securities ETFs, Shanghai securities companies ETFs, securities companies ETF funds, and securities companies ETFs rose more than 5%; leading securities companies ETFs rose by more than 5%. , Securities ETF E Fund and other 7 securities companies themed products rose more than 4%.
In fact, broker-themed ETFs continued to rebound in June. Wind data shows that as of June 13, Hui’an Shanghai Securities ETF, Shanghai Securities ETF, etc. have risen by more than 6% since June. Penghua Guozheng Securities’ leading ETF, Huafu 14 products including the China Securities Company Vanguard Strategy ETF rose more than 5%.
The continuous rise has caused the net value of some products to rise to recent highs. For example, the securities ETF fund that led the rise today has hit a high of nearly three months. Previously, the fund hit a high of 0.8 points intraday on March 8. . The brokerage ETF, which rose by 5.37% today, had an intraday premium rate of 0.43%, and the closing price was 0.942 yuan, which also hit a new high in more than three months. The turnover was 1.4 billion yuan, a 100% increase from yesterday.
From the perspective of capital flow, the net inflows of these ETFs are not high today. Among them, the securities ETFs under Tianhong Fund have the most gold-absorbing effect, with a net inflow of 9.3096 million yuan today, followed by the securities ETFs under China Southern Asset Management, with a net inflow of 9.3096 million yuan today. The inflow was 3.7489 million yuan, and there were also net outflows of funds from 7 related ETFs.
On the whole, Wind data shows that the Nasdaq 100 ETF under GF Fund, the new energy automobile industry ETF under Ping An Fund, and the photovoltaic industry ETF under Huatai-Pineapple Fund have received more net inflows today, with a single-day net inflow. It was 315 million yuan, 283 million yuan, and 253 million yuan in sequence.
How to watch brokerage ETF rebound?
With the rise of broker-themed ETFs, the market is paying more attention to the ETF. Why go up? Is the increase sustainable? These become the focus of market attention.
In this regard, Feng Chencheng, the ETF manager of Huabao Fund’s securities company, believes that as of June 10, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index has risen by 12% since its low point on April 26. The appeal, “Even if the sharp rise on June 14 made the securities sector increase by 10.43%, compared with the 12.31% cumulative increase of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, considering that the beta of the securities companies relative to the Shanghai Index is around 1.2-1.3, there is still room for growth. “
In addition, Feng Chencheng analyzed that in the early stage of the previous rebound, it was easy for the market to find industries that benefited from the recovery of risk appetite and obvious thematic opportunities. Therefore, under the situation that the market was generally rising in the early stage, the securities companies were in a state of stagflation.
Based on the current situation, he believes that in the context of the recovery of risk appetite in the entire market, the brokerage sector is currently “low valuation + less institutional positions”. Once it rises and has strong upward elasticity, it is also a sector where funds are willing to compete.
“When it fell to its lowest point in 2018, the CSI All-Share Securities Index PB tracked by brokerage ETFs was 1.06 times. At that time, the stock pledge risk affected the balance sheet of the brokerage industry.” In Feng Chencheng’s view, in May this year The mid-to-late index PB is 1.28 times. At present, PB is 1.46 times (located at the 11% quantile since 2013), and this round of correction is due to the slowdown of brokerage and two financing businesses, and the disturbance of proprietary business, which does not constitute a substantial damage to the asset quality of securities companies. When the market stabilizes, the negative factors When all are eliminated, there is a sufficient margin of safety in the brokerage sector.
From the perspective of policy, Feng Chencheng believes that in the time window of stable growth, the policy will maintain a reasonable abundance of funds and promote the reduction of capital costs. The state of “slow economic recovery + loose liquidity care” and the expectation that corporate profits will bottom out and rebound are conducive to equity asset allocation.
“The core reason for the slump in the performance of brokerage firms in the early stage was the sluggish stock market. Since May, the market has rebounded significantly, and the brokerage, two financing and other businesses closely related to liquidity are also expected to improve with the recovery of capital inflows. Therefore, basically The worst time has gradually passed.” Southern Asset Management believes that the second quarter may become the end of this year’s performance for securities companies, and it is expected that the third and fourth quarters may be significantly better than the previous month.
Chunjiang plumbing, brokerage prophet. Southern Asset Management said that the probability that the bottom of the market has appeared has further increased, or that on the eve of the start of a comprehensive recovery, securities companies are expected to take the lead in ushering in the counter-offensive market.
In fact, many institutions have also voiced their bullishness on brokerage stocks. For example, Tianfeng Securities mentioned that the brokerage sector is giving birth to a beta market of “defending to attacking”. At present, the valuation safety margin of the brokerage sector is relatively high, and the defensive value is significant; the frequent favorable capital market reform policies, combined with the loose monetary policy, is expected to become a major positive for the sector.
Great Wall Securities said that it is expected that the policy correction will continue to increase, and it is expected that more policies to stabilize growth and market will be introduced to promote the long-term development of the capital market. Reshaping the industry ecology, leading brokerages with excellent wealth management and institutional business are expected to obtain higher valuation premiums.
AVIC Securities pointed out that the current PB valuation of the brokerage sector is still near the 10th percentile since 2016, which is seriously undervalued. Stimulated by good news, the low valuation broke out. In the long run, there is also a large room for repairing the valuation of the sector.
On the whole, Xie Yi, the fund manager of Nord Fund, believes that the recent overall market situation is both a rebound and a reversal. “On a longer time scale, some variables that support the reversal are also improving. From an economic cycle perspective, the market is currently at the bottom of a cycle, the so-called inventory investment cycle. A similar reference can be made to 2015, After the market reached the bottom, there was a reversal in 2016 and 2017, and the big blue chips led a wave of rising market prices. Looking forward to the next two years, if there is no disturbance from the epidemic, I think the market will usher in the above-mentioned A strong recovery.”
Specific to the industry, he said that any industry has very good investment opportunities at this stage. For example, if you seek opportunities at the industry level, it is recommended to temporarily ignore the disturbance of the epidemic and focus on industries that can provide deterministic growth in a longer-term time dimension.