News from the Financial Associated Press on January 25 (Editor Zhao Hao)Shortly after the U.S. stock market opened on Tuesday (January 24), the latest data report released by S&P Global, a financial analysis company, showed that the U.S. manufacturing and service industry purchasing managers’ indexes (PMI) rebounded slightly in January, but both indicators were still below Prosperity line.
Specific data show that the initial value of the U.S. manufacturing PMI in January rose slightly from 46.2 in the previous month to 46.8, and the initial value of the service business activity index (service PMI) rose slightly from 44.7 in the previous month to 46.6, which were better than the market’s previous expectations. 46 and 45.
This brought the flash composite PMI output index (Composite PMI) to 46.6 in January, up 1.6 points from 45 in December 2022 and also stronger than the expected 46.4.
The PMI is compiled through monthly surveys of purchasing managers, and it is a “barometer” to measure the development of the industry and reflect future economic trends. The index usually takes 50 as the critical point. If it is higher than 50, it means that a certain field is in a state of expansion; if it is lower than 50, it means that a certain field is in a state of shrinking.
While the numbers were stronger than expected, business activity contracted sharply again in January, pointing to how the U.S. economy will start 2023, wrote Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.Still weak and disappointing.
He added that activity in both manufacturing and services was down, albeit slightly better than in December,It was one of the largest declines since the 2008 global financial crisis.
From a horizontal comparison, the composite PMIs of Japan and the euro zone released by S&P Global within a few days have risen above the 50 line of prosperity and decline, which may mean that the U.S. economy is in decline.The pace of recovery has been slower than in both regions.
Williamson also noted that U.S. job growth has also cooled, with job growth in January far weaker than most of last year, reflecting hesitancy among companies to expand capacity amid an uncertain trade environment in the coming months. Despite the upturn in business confidence, by historical standards,Overall levels of confidence remain low.
Williamson also stressed that he also sees input cost inflation picking up in the new year,Part of the reason is due to the pressure of rising wages,This phenomenon is very worrying, “although recession risks are rising, it may encourage the Fed to tighten monetary policy further aggressively.”
The financial blog Zero Hedge commented that it is obvious that this is not the “soft landing” that central bank officials previously claimed, but more like a precursor to “stagflation”. High unemployment and high inflation are likely to coexist in the future. It is hoped that the Fed will “fold its cards” as soon as possible to protect the economy.
After the release of the data, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond, which is related to U.S. economic expectations, once hit a one-week high, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond also rose significantly. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index jumped 30 points to 102.44 at one point, and the dollar jumped 70 points to 131.11 against the yen.