Home » A series of measures to escort economic growth in the second half of the year is expected to rebound – China Daily

A series of measures to escort economic growth in the second half of the year is expected to rebound – China Daily

by admin
A series of measures to escort economic growth in the second half of the year is expected to rebound – China Daily

Recent high-frequency data show that in May, crude steel output and steel tire operating rate narrowed, and coke oven productivity increased; power generation, vehicle logistics index, passenger vehicle sales and other data improved, and the resumption of work and production accelerated.

Many researchers believe that judging from the data performance, the staged bottom of economic operation has basically been confirmed, and June will be an important window period for observing the pace and flexibility of economic recovery. In view of the improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, the recovery of economic momentum and the escort of a package of policy measures, the economic growth rate is expected to rebound in the second half of the year.

Industrial economy bottoms out

Many institutions believe that the bottom of the short-term economic operation is basically clear. “The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rebounded sharply in May. This indicates that the industrial economy has bottomed out and started a repair mode.” A report released by Pacific Securities a few days ago pointed out that the force of fiscal policy and monetary policy is expected to promote the formation of a round The recovery process of economic growth with investment as the main driving force.

According to Fu Yang, a macroeconomic analyst at AVIC Securities, the main economic indicators in May were still at a low level, and June will become an important observation period for the implementation of policies and the momentum of economic recovery. “As the epidemic situation across the country gradually eases, although there is still uncertainty about the extent of the subsequent economic recovery, the staged bottom of the economic operation has basically been proven.” Fu Yang said.

See also  Massimo Giletti, return to Rai? Here is the project. Mara Venier last season

“Under the joint promotion of the resumption of work and production and the policy of stabilizing growth, June will be an important window period to observe the pace and flexibility of economic recovery.” Song Jinchao, a macroeconomic analyst at Western Securities, predicts that the economy is more likely to achieve a “U-shaped” repair this year. .

Liu Yuanchun, president of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, said recently that June is very important for economic work in the second quarter. “From the current point of view, especially from the implementation details of the latest package of measures to stabilize the economy announced by various places, the economic rebound in June is likely to be larger than that in May and June 2020.” Liu Yuanchun said.

Investment recovery will be more obvious in the second half of the year

Industry insiders believe that economic growth is expected to rebound faster in the second half of the year, given the improvement of the epidemic prevention and control situation, the recovery of economic momentum and the escort of a package of policy measures.

The report of West China Securities believes that the full force of the stabilizing growth policy will fill the gap in economic growth from March to mid-May, and it is expected that the economic growth rate will return to more than 5% in the second half of the year. The aforementioned Pacific Securities report believes that the economy was greatly affected by the epidemic in the second quarter, and it will be difficult to achieve the annual economic growth target.

See also  First batch of individual pension funds unveiled

From the perspective of the “troika”, investment recovery will be more obvious in the second half of the year. Ye Fan, chief macro analyst at Southwest Securities, predicts that under the promotion of policies, manufacturing investment will further accelerate in the second half of the year, and infrastructure investment will rise steadily with the help of special bonds and infrastructure REITs. The annual growth rate of fixed asset investment is expected to reach about 8.5%. The consumption stimulus policy has a certain role in promoting the release of consumption willingness. It is expected that the annual consumption growth rate will recover to about 4%. In the second half of the year, the growth rate of imports and exports is expected to be stable with some decline, and the year-on-year growth rates of exports and imports are expected to drop to 7.5% and 6.0% respectively.

Zhang Xiaojiao, senior macro analyst at Bank of China International Securities, believes that driven by infrastructure investment, economic growth will recover significantly in the third quarter and will pick up in the second half of the year.

Achieving the optimal effect of policy coordination

To promote the sustained recovery of the economy, it is necessary to accelerate the effectiveness of policies and continue to strengthen them. In order to stabilize the macroeconomic market as soon as possible, the State Council recently issued the “Package of Policies and Measures for Solidly Stabilizing the Economy”, and focused on introducing policies and measures for local economic development in many places.

See also  Lexus, world premiere of the LF-Z Electrified

Policy coordination is crucial. Zhou Maohua, a macro researcher at the Financial Market Department of China Everbright Bank, believes that in the current complex and severe internal and external environment, fiscal and monetary policies still need to strengthen coordination and cooperation, and promptly implement the policies that have been issued to ensure stable supply and stable prices, help enterprises in bailouts, and try their best to play the role of ensuring protection as soon as possible. The role of market players, stabilizing employment, and promoting stable economic growth.

“The next step is to continue to give full play to the synergies of fiscal, monetary, industrial and other policies to achieve the goal of efficiently coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development.” said Li Xuhong, director of the Institute of Fiscal and Taxation Policy and Application, Beijing National Accounting Institute. Promote the free flow of factors, optimize the effect of the policy on resumption of work and production, give play to the decisive role of the market in resource allocation, and achieve the optimal effect of policy coordination.

You may also like

Leave a Comment

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Privacy & Cookies Policy