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A-share semiconductors broke out for a month: the industry entered the traditional peak season, 13 stocks struggling at the bottom
Lin Jian Chen Feng
At present, the global trend of “grabbing cores” and soaring chips is intensifying, and the crisis of imbalance between supply and demand is already visible to the naked eye. The latest report released by Goldman Sachs shows that as many as 169 industries around the world have been affected to some extent by the shortage of chips.
The overall prosperity of the semiconductor industry (integrated circuits, semiconductors, and chips are simply regarded as the same concept below, and the three are actually a parent-child relationship). The overall prosperity of the semiconductor industry is continuing to rise, which makes A-share semiconductor investment believers suffer.ToStraight FlushAs an example, since May 11, under the turmoil of the market, the semiconductor and component sectors have finally changed their posture of endless decline and out of a wave of rising prices. Concepts such as semiconductor equipment, photoresist, third-generation semiconductors, etc. The stocks generally rose, dominating the screen gainers many times.
According to the data from Flush iFinD, in the semiconductor and component sector, from the start of the market on May 11 to June 11, among 115 semiconductor stocks, 102 stocks rose. Among them,Fuman Electronics（300671.SZ）、National technology（300077.SZ）、Liyang Chip(688135.SH) andBeijing Junzheng(300223.SZ) The cumulative rise and fall have exceeded 50%.
And only 13 stocks have accumulated negative gains and losses, which are*ST Danbang（002618.SZ）、National Science Micro（300672.SZ）、Swift Xing（688655.SH）、Huazheng New Materials（603186.SH）、Shenghong Technology（300476.SZ）、Jin An Guoji（002636.SZ）、Shengyi Technology（600183.SH）、Tongfeng Electronics（600237.SH）、Taiwan-based shares（300046.SZ）、Sanhuan Group（300408.SZ）、Fenghua Hi-Tech(Rights protection) (000636.SZ),Fortune Technology(002222.SZ) andAshi Chuang（300706.SZ）。
Thirteen companies leave the team
Among the few stocks that did not rise, *ST Danbang, which fell into an existential crisis or faced the risk of delisting, led the decline with -25.66%. Since its listing, the company’s stock price trend has shown an “inverted V” shape.
It is reported that *ST Danbang was established in 2001. The company mainly deals in two major products in the electronic component industry: flexible circuit boards (FPC) and polyimide film (PI film), among which PI film is the upstream material of FPC. FPC is different from hard circuit boards. It can be bent freely and is widely used in mobile communications, laptop computers, computer peripherals and other fields; PI film is mainly used in microelectronics as a dielectric layer for interlayer insulation, and is used in the semiconductor industry. The material is used as an adhesive, etc.
In the past, executives reported the company’s fraudulent accounts, and then the annual performance exploded, and then the supplier sued for arrears. *ST Danbang staged a magical plot in the past two years. Even if the Shenzhen Stock Exchange threw 19 questions to *ST Danbang regarding its audit report opinions, profitability and sustainability, assets and liabilities, and other matters for the 2020 annual report, *ST Danbang failed to answer one. So yes.
Guoke Micro, which ranked second with a decline of -17.87%, also failed to answer the question in the secondary market. Previously, due to the “scandal” of cooperation with Huawei and HiSilicon, the share price of Guokewei soared by 144% in one month. Although Guokewei later disclosed a clarification announcement that the rumors mentioned that the company has a chip cooperation with Huawei HiSilicon. False information, the company has no cooperation or business dealings with Huawei and HiSilicon. But the clarification has not been recognized by some investors.
In terms of performance, according to a previous report by a reporter from China Times, in the first quarter of this year, Guokewei still suffered a loss after deducting non-net profits when its revenue increased by more than 7 times, and the company was in a situation of increasing revenue but not profit.
In the process of the decline in the share price of Guokewei, Guokewei also ushered in the reduction of shareholders’ holdings. On the evening of June 10, Guokewei issued an announcement stating that the shareholder, the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Co., Ltd., plans to reduce its holdings by approximately 3.61 million shares. Stimulated by the news of the reduction, in the early trading of June 11, Guokewei fell sharply. It closed at 70.12 yuan per share, a decrease of 9.52%.
The poor performance of individual stocks does not affect the optimism of brokerages on the direction of the entire sector. A number of securities firm research reports pointed out that due to factors such as accelerated domestic substitution and price increases, the overall prosperity of the semiconductor industry continues to rise, and the semiconductor sector’s annual profit is expected to rise.
Shen Wan HongyuanversusTianfeng SecuritiesResearch reports all pointed out that semiconductors entered the traditional peak season in the third quarter, driving the semiconductor boom to continue to rise.
andGuojin SecuritiesIt is believed that according to downstream research and feedback, from the perspective of orders in hand, delivery cycle, and revenue confirmation cycle, the semiconductor industry’s prosperity will continue to increase by 2022. Under high economic conditions, due to factors such as product structure improvement and price increases, the semiconductor sector’s full-year profit forecast is expected to rise.
CITIC SecuritiesSaid that the semiconductor industry has bottomed out in the 2019 cycle, and the recovery of the epidemic in 2020 will be postponed, and a new cycle of high economic recovery will be launched in 2021. Due to the conservative capacity expansion during the previous epidemic, and the current equipment delivery period has been as long as one year , We believe that the shortage of production capacity is expected to run through 2021, and semiconductor manufacturing, packaging and testing, and equipment companies will benefit. On the other hand, under the background of Sino-US hard technology forks and the shortage of chips from major overseas manufacturers, domestic substitution logic is strengthened. In 2021, it is expected to see positive progress in the field of domestic equipment and materials. Domestic chip design companies are expected to seize the opportunity of shortage and quickly Promote domestic substitution.
The overall prosperity of the industry continues to rise
As a global industry, the semiconductor industry is experiencing a global crisis. A few days ago, the Japanese earthquake caused the supply of upstream raw materials for chips to be cut off, and the production capacity of Shin-Etsu Chemical’s KrF photoresist was in a hurry. Recently, in response to the spread of the new crown epidemic, Malaysia, the “semiconductor town”, has also implemented a comprehensive blockade from June 1 to June 14, which has further affected the packaging and testing (collectively referred to as packaging and testing) industry. In Taiwan, the leading semiconductor companies, including TSMC, have also suffered from power shortages, water shortages, and the aggravation of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, resulting in tight foundry production capacity and even downtime.
From the original mismatch of demand and supply, to today’s tight production capacity has worsened again, the shutdown of semiconductor companies in the state of suspension of production has made this chip crisis worse. Our reporter noted that in order to cope with the production capacity tensions in the semiconductor industry, many manufacturers have taken active measures to expand production, but the increase in production capacity cannot be achieved immediately, instead leading to wave after wave of price increases.
Right now, the global semiconductor industry has entered an upward path, and risks and opportunities coexist in my country’s semiconductor industry. Among them, the first to bear the brunt is the packaging and testing links in the industry chain.
CICCIt is said that packaging and testing is an important part of the semiconductor supply side. The recurrence of the epidemic in Taiwan, Malaysia and other regions will further aggravate the tight global chip supply after the recurrence of the global semiconductor packaging and testing capacity has caused a greater impact. Mainland China is one of the regions with better epidemic control in the world, and it also has a large number of high-quality semiconductor packaging and testing manufacturers. The repeated overseas epidemics are expected to accelerate the transfer of packaging and testing orders to mainland China.
According to our reporter, we learned from industry insiders that orders from semiconductor packaging and testing and foundry companies in mainland China are currently full.The Big Three of Packaging and Testing in Mainland ChinaChangdian Technology（600584.SH）、Huatian Technology(002185.SZ) andTongfu Microelectronics(002156.SZ) The results in 2020 are exceptional. The operating income of the three companies was 26.46 billion yuan, 8.38 billion yuan and 10.769 billion yuan respectively. From the perspective of performance growth, Tongfu Microelectronics achieved a year-on-year increase of 1668.04% in net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies, Changjiang Electronics Technology’s 1371.2%, and Huatian Technology’s 144.7%.
From design to manufacturing, to packaging and testing, behind the boom in each link is the accelerated development of my country’s semiconductor industry. According to official data, in 2020, the scale of my country’s integrated circuit industry will reach 884.8 billion yuan, with an average annual growth rate of nearly 20% during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, four times the global growth rate over the same period.
This year is the beginning of the “14th Five-Year Plan”. At the 2021 World Semiconductor Conference held on June 9, Qiao Yueshan, Director of the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, introduced that the global semiconductor industry has entered a major adjustment period, and risks and opportunities in the integrated circuit industry coexist. He pointed out that in the era of economic globalization, openness and accommodation is an unstoppable historical trend. At present, China is the world’s main production base for electronic information manufacturing, and it is also the world’s largest integrated circuit market with the fastest growth rate.
It is not difficult to find that my country’s goal of realizing domestic substitution is being promoted from various levels such as policy, industry, and capital. In August last year, the State Council issued the “Several Policies to Promote the High-Quality Development of the Integrated Circuit Industry and Software Industry in the New Era”, which dealt with issues such as fiscal and taxation, investment and financing, research and development, import and export, talents, intellectual property, market applications, and international cooperation. Support the integrated circuit industry.
The reporter noticed that, in connection with this, the “National Large Fund Phase II” (referring to the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund Phase II Co., Ltd.), which represents the industry’s vane, is constantly making investment adjustments to guide industrial development. Recently, the second phase of the “National Fund” has further increased investment in the semiconductor field, which has aroused widespread concern in the industry.
In the evening of June 7,China Resources Micro(688396.SH) issued an announcement stating that the “National Fund Phase II” and the company jointly invested in the construction of a 12-inch power semiconductor wafer production line project. The project plans to invest 7.55 billion yuan. After completion, it is expected to form a monthly production capacity of 30,000 12-inch mid-to-high-end power semiconductor wafers, and support the construction of 12-inch epitaxial and thin-film processing capabilities.
It is reported that in terms of wafer manufacturing, China Resources Micro is the top three local wafer manufacturing companies in China. At present, the company’s 6-inch wafer manufacturing capacity is approximately 2.48 million pieces/year, and 8-inch wafer manufacturing capacity is approximately 1.44 million pieces/year. In the first quarter of this year, the company’s operating income and net profit were 2.045 billion yuan and 400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 47.92% and 251.85% respectively. China Resources Micro has doubled its net profit for five consecutive quarters.
Affected by the news of the investment in the construction of a wafer production line, China Resources Micro’s stock price rose successively on June 8 and 9, with increases of 2.92% and 5.82% respectively. On June 11, China Resources Micro’s market value exceeded 100 billion yuan and closed at 75.14 yuan per share.
Zhang Xiaorong, Dean of Deepin Technology Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from China Times, “With the worsening of the epidemic situation in Southeast Asian countries and the adjustment of the global industrial chain, the problem of global chip shortage is very likely to intensify. my country urgently needs to seize the historic opportunity to make further progress. Break through the technological blockade and expand chip manufacturing capacity. The semiconductor sector of the A-share market has also recently entered an active cycle. Under the orderly guidance of the National Fund, the prosperity index is expected to continue to rise.”
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