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original title:[收盘评论]CFFEX market on August 19th: A-share index diverges, and transactions in the two cities surpassed one trillion for 22 consecutive days. Source: Wenhua Finance
On Thursday, the large and small stock indexes in the A-share market diverged, and the ChiNext index performed strongly. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.57%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.23%, and the ChiNext Index rose 0.92%. Market sentiment continued to be active, with a total of 1.215 billion yuan in transactions in the two cities, breaking through one trillion for the 22nd consecutive day. In terms of stock index futures, IF2108 fell 0.55%, IH2108 fell 1.41%, and IC2108 rose 0.56%. The minutes of the Fed policy meeting caused investors to worry about the policy tightening ahead of schedule. The US stock market fell sharp overnight, which had a certain impact on the sentiment of the A-share market. Afterwards, concept sectors such as aerospace and salt lake lithium extraction rose, the ChiNext index turned red and strong, while the large financial sector underperformed, and the Shanghai index performed weakly. In addition, the northbound funds sold 10.783 billion yuan in unilateral net today, which also had a certain impact on market sentiment.
On the disk, telecommunications operations, aerospace, culture, education and leisure, and communications sectors led the two cities; insurance, public utilities, banking, and wine industry sectors fell more.
Recently affected by the slowdown in economic recovery momentum and the expected cooling of liquidity easing, the A-share market has performed poorly, but the structural market still exists. Popular sectors are highly sought after by funds, and the turnover has maintained a trillion-level scale for 22 consecutive trading days. According to statistics, in the history of A shares, the daily turnover of the two cities exceeded one trillion yuan for more than 10 consecutive days only 9 times, and this has happened three times this year. The longest time in history occurred in May 2015, when the A-share market was in the hottest period of the bull market. Since May 8, 2005, it lasted for a total of 43 trading days. Market analysis believes that the boom in turnover has a significant boost to the market, but as time goes by, incremental funds cannot be replenished in time, a decline in turnover is bound to occur, and it is inevitable that the continuity of the market will be hindered. Therefore, follow-up also need to pay attention to the market trading situation. Some analysts also believe that trillions of transactions reflect the easing of market funds, but generally speaking, the effect of making money in the near future is general. The operation difficulty of the market this year has increased compared with last year. The hot spots are mainly in new energy, photovoltaics, semiconductors, etc., and the income of investors is also very different.
As the minutes of the Fed’s policy meeting showed that the members of the meeting believed that “this year may reach” the employment threshold for reducing economic support, deepening investors’ concerns about policy tightening ahead of schedule, major US stock indexes closed down, and the S&P 500 index fell for two consecutive days, better than the record. The closing high fell about 1.8%, and for the first time since July 19, there was a one-day drop of more than 1%. The minutes of the Fed’s July 27-28 meeting showed that policymakers were divided on key aspects of the next policy adjustment. Some committee members were worried about inflation and believed that it was necessary to be prepared to deal with inflation. Other committee members said that it will take time for the American people to return to work, and the Fed also needs to be patient.
Regarding the market outlook, Wanhe Securities has analyzed that the recent market has always been troubled by three aspects, one is the driving force of economic growth; the second is liquidity; and the third is policy. Any change at any point may bring emotional volatility to the market. The 730 Politburo will ease the market’s wait-and-see sentiment in the future, but due to the global spread of Delta virus, market uncertainty has risen again. At present, from the perspective of inflation and social financial data, it has brought certain pressure on liquidity. We judge that the disturbing factors are mainly short-term effects. Therefore, in the medium and long term, neither liquidity nor inflation need be overly pessimistic. We believe that the main logic of the current market has not changed, and it is still profit-driven, but the short-term disturbance factor will continue to fluctuate in order to eliminate.
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