Source: Minmetals Futures Author: Minmetals Futures
Research report text
Shanghai AluminumThe main contract closed at 19,340 yuan/ton (as of 3:00 pm yesterday), an increase of 1.68%.
The average price of SMM spot A00 aluminum is 18940 yuan / ton. The average price of A00 aluminum ingots is -310. Aluminum futures warehouse receipts were 33,100 tons, an increase of 576 tons from the previous day. LME aluminum inventory was 489,300 tons, a decrease of 7,125 tons.
On December 12, 2022, SMM counted 500,000 tons of domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory, which was stable compared with last Thursday, 16,000 tons lower than the monthly inventory at the end of November, and 416,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots remains at 500,000 tons, and the inventory has not yet accumulated, but the decline has slowed down.
SMM data shows that in November 2022 (30 days), China’s electrolytic aluminum output will be 3.335 million tons, an increase of 8.7% year-on-year. In November, the cumulative domestic output of electrolytic aluminum reached 36.638 million tons, a cumulative increase of 3.7% year-on-year.
According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November 2022 will be about 455,600 tons, a decrease of 4.94% month-on-month and a decrease of 10.55% year-on-year. From January to November 2022, the export volume of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 6.132 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3% from January to November last year.
The annual rate of CPI in the United States in November was 7.1%, the previous value: 7.7%, and the expected: 7.3%. The data continued to fall and was the smallest increase since December 2021. Affected by weaker US inflation, non-ferrous metals generally strengthened.
Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the main contract reference operating range: 18600-19200.
On Wednesday, LME nickel stocks increased by 456 tons, and the high discount of Cash/3M was maintained. In terms of price, the LME nickel March contract price rose 0.64%,Shanghai NickelThe main contract fell 2%.
In terms of domestic fundamentals, the spot price on Wednesday was 220,100-226,000 yuan/ton, the spot price of Russian nickel was 6,150 yuan/ton to the 01 contract, and the price of Jinchuan nickel was 7,750 yuan/ton.
In terms of import and export, according to the model calculation, the loss of nickel plate imports has narrowed, and the weak demand has kept the trend of domestic oversupply unchanged.
In terms of ferronickel, Indonesia’s ferronickel production continued to grow, and the overall supply maintained a growth trend.
On the whole, the pressure of weakening fundamentals of ferronickel and refined nickel in the off-season continues unabated.
In terms of stainless steel demand, last week Wuxi Foshan social inventory accumulated marginally, the reality of both weakening supply and demand and the game of economic recovery expectations, the main contract prices of spot and futures fluctuated at high levels, and the basis remained premium.
In the short term, pay attention to the impact of favorable overseas and domestic macro policies and the weakening demand of the off-season industrial chain on the price of raw materials.
It is expected that the main contract of Shanghai Nickel will mainly fluctuate, and the operating range will refer to 180000-225000 yuan / ton.
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