MILANO – After the ECB, it’s up to the Federal Reserve. The US Central Bank has already started its cycle of rate hikes and budget easing, while the European counterpart only started last week. A new squeeze is now expected from the western part of the Atlantic.
Fed officials hinted that it gravitated towards another 0.75 percentage point rate hike in the meeting that closes on July 27. But there is no shortage of questions about the possibility of doing something more to bring down inflation, which runs above 9%. But voices have been raised in other parts of those who are concerned about how the US economy might react to such aggression. According to Bloomberg panel economists, President Jerome Powell could slow down after the second hike from 75 basis points: the expectation is that the FOMC will then raise rates by half a point in September, then move to a quarter of a point in September. two remaining meetings of the year. In any case, it would mean reaching the top of the 3.5% target by the end of 2022, or the highest level since the beginning of 2008. The panel goes even further by predicting a last increase from 0.25 at the beginning of 2023, then a pause in the increases to then start cutting the cost of money by the end of 2023.
“The strong labor market and solid consumer spending give the Fed leeway to continue raising rates rapidly,” Oxford Economics chief US economist Kathy Bostjancic told the US agency. There is also great expectation for Powell’s words at the press conference, to also understand the degree of concern about the US economic dynamics.
On the macro front, a long series of important data is expected that will shed light on the state of health of the US and European economies. The numbers on US GDP in the second quarter will be released on Thursday, while on Friday it will be the turn of Italy, France, Germany and the Eurozone. The updated forecast of the International Monetary Fund will be published on Tuesday. Without forgetting the continuation of the political crisis in Italy, with President Draghi summoning the trade unions to carry out the next Aid decree.
Here are the main weekly appointments in the breaking latest news agenda
MONDAY 25 JULY
– Italgas: quarterly conference call.
– Inail: annual report.
– Germany: Ifo index on economic expectations in July.
TUESDAY 26 JULY
– Tourism: signing of the Mintur-Enel-Trenitalia protocol.
– IMF: World economic outlook update.
– USA: May house price index.
– USA: Conference board index on consumer confidence in July.
– USA: new home sales in June.
– Usa: trimestrali Alphabet, Microsoft.
WEDNESDAY 27 JULY
– Istat: consumer and business confidence in July.
– Istat: contractual wages in the second quarter.
– Businesses: V Report on female entrepreneurship. The Minister of Economic Development, Giancarlo Giorgetti, participates.
– Set: Wartsilia table.
– Government Bonds: half-yearly Bot auction.
– That: his quarterly conference call.
– Saipem: quarterly conference call.
– Fincantieri: quarterly conference call.
– Unicredit: conference call on quarterly report.
– Snam: conference call on quarterly report.
– Fed: decision on rates and Jerome Powell press conference.
– Germany: Gfk consumer confidence index in August.
– USA: orders for durable goods in June.
– USA: trade balance in June.
– USA: pending home sales in June.
– USA: weekly oil stocks.
– Usa: trimstrale Meta.
THURSDAY 28 JULY
– Istat: industry turnover in May.
– Istat: non-EU foreign trade in June.
– Stm: conference call su trimestrale.
– Stellantis: conference call on quarterly report.
– Iveco: conference call on quarterly report.
– Prada: conference call on quarterly report.
– Poste: quarterly conference call.
– Terna: quarterly conference call.
– Enel: conference call on quarterly report.
– Leonardo: conference call on quarterly report.
– Government bonds: BTP auction.
– France: producer prices in June.
– Spain: unemployment rate in the second quarter.
– Spain: retail sales in June.
– Germany: inflation in July.
– Usa: second quarter GDP.
– USA: new applications for weekly unemployment benefits.
– Usa: trimestrali Apple, Amazon.
FRIDAY 29 JULY
– Istat: preliminary estimate of the second quarter GDP.
– Istat: inflation in July.
– Istat: producer prices in June.
– Eni: quarterly conference call.
– Intesa Sp: Board of Directors on half-yearly basis.
– Mediobanca: conference call on quarterly report.
– France: Pil II quarter.
– France: inflation in July.
– Spain: second quarter GDP.
– Germany: import prices in June.
– Germany: unemployment rate in July.
– Germany: Pil II quarters.
– Germany: inflation in July.
– Eurozone: inflation in July.
– Eurozone: Pil II quarter.
– USA: PCE index in June.
– USA: Michigan consumer confidence index in July.
– USA: personal expenses and income in June.