This year, for Christmas gifts, 158 euros will be spent per capita compared to 164 euros last year, -8% compared to 2019 and over 36% less than in 2009, overall 6.9 billion compared to 7 , 4 billion last year, with inflation and the rise in bills that risk further reducing the thirteenth share allocated to these expenses. This is what emerges from an analysis by Confcommercio. During the month, the average expenditure per household stood at 1,645 euros, 0.5% more than last year, but still far below 2019 (-7.5%), adds Confcommercio, underlining that the thirteenth overall destined for consumption: 32.6 billion in 2021 against 29.7 billion in 2020.
December is confirmed as the most important month of the year for consumption: this year around 110 billion euros of total expenditure, 10 less than in 2019 but the climate of confidence of declining families, the strong recovery of inflation and the rise in bills. This was underlined by the analysis of the Confcommercio Research Department on thirteenth and December consumption. For marketable expenses only (goods and services) i.e. food, clothing, furniture, white and brown appliances, computers, cell phones and communications, books, recreation, entertainment and culture, toys and self-care, hotels, bars and restaurants, the estimate is 76 billion, Confcommercio calculates. In 2020, this expenditure, strongly correlated with the economic well-being of families, had dropped to around 66 billion euros today. From the trend in marketable consumption in the three-year period, it can be seen that the month of December, also in 2020, a year characterized by a holiday period characterized by many limitations, represented the most important period from the point of view of consumption.
The estimates made for 2021 do not consider sudden deterioration of the pandemic picture. Beyond the health situation, some points of concern emerge from the economic side. In November, the climate of household confidence, while remaining at historically high levels, fell back for the second consecutive month. This situation, if confirmed in the coming months, risks having repercussions in the early part of 2022 as well as compressing, albeit marginally, the expenses for December and for Christmas gifts.
The deterioration is largely correlated to the re-emergence of inflation which, for the unexpected part, i.e. that exceeding 1.5% -2%, could compress the purchasing power of households, reverberating mainly in a contraction in purchases. of marketable goods and services. In fact, the recovery in inflation is affecting mainly and at least for now, those goods and services that families cannot give up, that is, the so-called forced consumption. Over the course of twelve months, there has been a shift from a context of deflation to a change in consumer prices of more than 3% (3.8% in November 2021). The new scenario has not affected the orientations and propensities of families to the point of modifying their behavior, but its continuation cannot fail to affect consumption choices.