Source: Southwest Futures Author: Southwest Futures
The text of the research report
1. Fundamentals:The supply has begun to ease, the scrap copper policy has been liberalized, and the currency has begun to tighten. According to the website of the National Bureau of Statistics, in August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and was at a critical level. Below the point, the level of manufacturing prosperity has declined; bearish.
2. Basis:Spot 63785, basis 595, premium futures; too much.
3. Inventory:On September 13, copper stocks decreased by 1,775 tons to 103,650 tons, and copper stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 1,106 tons to 36,371 tons compared with last week;
4. Disk:The closing price closed at the 20 moving average line, and the 20 moving average line was running upward; it was too much.
5. Main positions:The main net positions are empty, and the air is reduced;
6. Expectation:At present, there is a game between supply and interest rate hikes. The news from Russia and Ukraine continues. The Federal Reserve has accelerated interest rate hikes and entered the September rate hike cycle. Short-term copper prices may be under pressure.Shanghai Copper2210: 63500 empty hold, stop loss 64000, target 62000.
1. The stock exchange’s explicit inventory remains low, and the bonded area inventory is at the same level in the same period. Low inventory leads to high premiums to support copper prices.
2. Geopolitical disturbances in Russia and Ukraine.
1. Processing fees have stabilized, and copper concentrate production has recovered.
2. High inflation may accelerate inflation The Fed releases a plan to shrink its balance sheet.
3. The global economy is not optimistic, and high copper prices will suppress downstream consumption.
logic:rate hike recession.
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