Home » August CPI’s year-on-year increase continues to fall, PPI hits a 13-year high_price

August CPI’s year-on-year increase continues to fall, PPI hits a 13-year high_price

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Original title: August CPI year-on-year growth continued to fall, PPI hit a 13-year high

Affected by factors such as the repeated drag on service consumption by the epidemic and the continuous decline in pork prices, the year-on-year increase in CPI in August fell below 1% again after three months. As the prices of coal, chemicals and steel products continue to rise, the PPI has hit a new high since September 2008.

On the 9th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Ex-factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) data for August 2021.

From a year-on-year perspective, the CPI rose by 0.8%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, food prices fell by 4.1%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. In food, pork prices fell by 44.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.

Among non-food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 2.5%, and the growth rate fell by 0.3%. Among them, the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 22.7% and 25.2%, respectively, both of which fell; the price of services rose by 1.5%, and the growth rate fell by 0.1%. The prices of hotel and hotel accommodation rose by 31.6% and 2.8%, respectively, and the growth rates both fell.

Food prices, especially pork prices, were the main drag on the CPI in August. Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said in an interview with a reporter from China Business News that the average wholesale price of pork declined slightly in August when the supply of live pigs exceeded demand. The pork CPI fell again by 1.40 percentage points year-on-year in the same month.

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Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that on August 31, the average price of pork in the national agricultural product wholesale market was 20.77 yuan/kg, a sharp drop of 57.1% from 48.42 yuan/kg in the same period last year, and a decrease of 8.9% from the beginning of the month.

CICC Macro pointed out that the production capacity of live pigs has achieved the recovery target six months ahead of schedule. Affected by emergencies such as severe weather and the epidemic, live pig production has accelerated, and the epidemic has suppressed the demand for dining out and collective consumption, and the price of live pigs continued to fall in August.

Regarding the next CPI trend, Luo Zhiheng, deputy dean and senior macro analyst of Yuekai Securities Research Institute, analyzed that the CPI may continue to fall year-on-year in the short term. At present, pork production capacity is recovering rapidly. Even with the support of “double festivals” and government purchasing and storage, prices are difficult to improve; terminal consumption and service consumption are still affected by the epidemic and recover slowly, and it is difficult to see a sharp rebound.

In terms of PPI, in August, affected by the increase in the prices of coal, chemicals, and steel products, the price increase of industrial products increased month-on-month and year-on-year.

From a year-on-year perspective, PPI rose by 9.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among the major industries, the price increases of coal mining and washing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industries increased by 11.4, 2.7, and 1.1 percentage points, respectively, which were the main reasons for the year-on-year increase.

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According to a research report issued by Guotai Junan, the PPI in August reached a new high this year. Under the influence of the global economic recovery and the domestic energy consumption “dual control” policy, commodity prices have generally risen, and there has been a trend of spreading from major products such as steel, copper, and oil to other products such as aluminum, lithium, and ferrosilicon. The general upward trend in the prices of commodities such as steel and coal is the biggest driving force.

Wu Chaoming, chief economist of Caixin Securities, said that the limited production of upstream raw materials and the continued recovery of the global economy will also support commodity prices. my country’s industrial chain is relatively long, the downstream product competition is relatively sufficient, and after the epidemic, domestic supply continues to recover faster than demand, the probability of a further sharp increase in domestic industrial product prices in the future is not high. Return to Sohu to see more

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