(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) – After starting in positive territory, the European stock exchanges immediately reversed their course, while oil prices lengthened with Brent in November which exceeded 80 dollars a barrel. Rising government bond yields are hurting tech stocks, along with new signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
Investors are looking at Christine Lagarde’s speech at the opening of the ECB Forum, but the focus is above all on the flare-up in energy prices and the run of the oil barrel which in London marks the highest since October 2018, after Goldman Sachs had estimated prices per barrel of around 90 dollars by the end of the year, and that in the November WTI contract returns to the top of 2021, marked in July, above 76.3 dollars a barrel.
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In the speech published for the hearing of the Banking Commission of the US Senate, the president of the Fed Jerome Powell explained that the supply-side bottlenecks that led to inflationary pressures have lasted beyond forecasts and will continue but there will be an easing and a return of inflation towards the 2% target. euro / dollar fell below the 1.17 (1.1681) threshold already broken down several times in Monday’s session.
Petroliferi in the spotlight on Piazza Affari
In Milan, oil is in the front row on the Ftse Mib: Eni earns 1.8%, Tenaris 1%. Banks also did well (+ 0.8% Unicredit and Intesa). The race of Generali continues, now at the levels of February 2020 on the tug-of-war in the shareholding structure for the new governance: after the nominations committee, the board of directors of Generali approved by majority the start of the process for the board list with Philippe Donnet candidate to be confirmed in the role of CEO. StMicroelectronics down (-1.6%), again sales in the healthcare sector starting with Amplifon and Diasorin. Out of the Ftse Mib + 6.9% for Danieli thanks to the 2021 results above the forecasts
The German elections
Great uncertainty comes from the outcome of the vote in Germany. The end of the Angela Merkel era opens up new scenarios in Europe. Markets reacted well on Monday, mostly because the worst scenario (for them) was averted: the red-green-red coalition. That the potential advent of a government of this type was considered “the main risk” of this electoral round is also confirmed by a Goldman Sachs report on the German real estate market, which reports the fears of the owners “for the potential adverse consequences on regulation” . With the “left” option no longer on the table, the markets seem to have no particular preferences between the two most likely outcomes of the negotiations: the “traffic light” coalition led by the SPD (with Liberals and Greens) and the “Jamaica” one that would send the socialists in the opposition and the CDU-Csu in government. What is certain is that this remains a subject of uncertainty for the future ..