Banco BPM steps forward and clarifies the rumors circulated in recent days, relating to the interest shown by Axa and Crédit Agricole towards its insurance activities.
Il Sole 24 Ore reports the statements made yesterday evening by a spokesperson for the bank led by CEO Giuseppe Castagnain the spotlight especially the other day, when a note from Mediobanca Securities analysts confirmed the institution’s appeal as prey to a possible takeover operation in the banking sector.
The Piazza Meda spokesman explained that, “having received several expressions of interest from leading insurance operators“, Banco Bpm” has decided to launch a structured process that makes it possible to examine and compare the terms of the offers and to evaluate, in the interest of its shareholders, any partnership options provided they are in line with the best market conditions and ensure an important creation of value consistent with the industrial choices defined in the Strategic Plan “.
At the moment, “as anticipated in the Strategic Plan announced last November 5, the main option remains the internalization of the insurance business by the end of 2023 and in this logic, the option to purchase 81% of Bipiemme Vita from partner Covea was exercised ”, continued the spokesperson.
The names of Crédit Agricole, which became the bank’s largest shareholder in early April, and Axa, were not mentioned. But Il Sole 24 Ore, on the basis of sources consulted, instead cited them, placing them side by side with those of other subjects who would covet the Banco’s bancassurance business: they would be Allianz and Generali.
The news is taken from today’s note from Equita SIM:
“Banco BPM confirms a ‘structured process’ for selecting the insurance partner. After rumors relating to an interest from AXA and Credit Agricole, a spokesman for BAMI confirmed that ‘the bank has decided to start a structured process’ to decide on the possible partner of the insurance jvs. According to Il Sole 24 Ore, there are also those interested in participating in a competitive process Allianz and Generali. We recall that in the first six months of 2023 Banco BPM has a call option for the repurchase of 65% of the insurance JV with Cattolica (Vera Vita and Vera Assicurazioni), for which we believe that the interest of Generali (owner of Cattolica) is aimed at evaluating the possibility of maintaining and possibly extending the existing partnership. However, in the business plan presented in November, Banco BPM had already indicated that it wished to exercise the call option available to it. For BAMI, the news is positive as it confirms the interest of numerous players in the bancassurance business. If the rumors about Axa’s € 1.5 billion valuation of BAMI’s insurance business are confirmed, this could represent a starting point on which BAMI management could leverage in negotiations. We preliminarily estimate that the sale of the insurance business at a valuation of € 1.5 billion may imply a positive impact on our valuation equal to c. 10% “
Il Banco BPM title meanwhile confirms the bullish push, destined, according to Mediobanca Securities analysts, to continue.
On 7 April, the Italian banking sector was shaken by the news concerning the acquisition of a 9.18% stake in the bank’s capital. by the French of Crédit Agricole. Stake accumulated as a result of purchases on the market and an operation with a leading international investment bank (according to JP Morgan indiscretions, given that a few days later, from the communications of Consob relating to significant shareholdings, it emerged that on 4 April the American giant had acquired a stake of 6.472% in the capital of the Italian bank, divided as follows: share of 5.266% of JPMorgan Securities PLC, of 0.591% of JPMorgan Securities LLC and of 0.615% of JPMorgan SE.
Two days ago, Banco BPM stock is back on fire after the note from Mediobanca Securities, which, among other things, did not only mention the name of the French: also cited UniCredit by Andrea Orceland cited the rumors circulated before the war between Russia and Ukraine on the potential launch of a takeover by UniCredit.
“In our opinion, Banco BPM could become the target of a takeover operation in the future”, wrote the experts, not forgetting however the uncertainty represented by the possible exercise of the golden power by the Draghi government (a factor that would obviously affect Crédit Agricole), and the timing issue with regard to UniCredit.
Mediobanca Securities analysts they revised the BAMI rating upwards to outperformwith target price TP at € 3.6 ″, adding to believe that there is an 80% probability of a takeover at a P / Te equal to 0.55% and a 20% probability of a standalone bank scenario ”And also underlining that“ the stock trades at a discount compared to the sector average (P / TE 0.37x vs 0.5x), despite the resumption of speculative appeal in recent weeks ”.
And in fact, although Piazza Affari today is dealing with the Jerome Powell effect – the number one of the Federal Reserve has shaken the markets with even more hawkish statements on US rates -, Banco BPM confirms its resilience, highlighting itself as one of the best titles of the Ftse Mib.
In a report dedicated to the other Italian banks Intesa San Paolo and UniCredit, Mediobanca Securities reiterated that it was constructive on the BAMI stock, advising instead caution on the other two.
Great expectations at this point for the moves of potential interested in Banco’s bancassurance business and, also, for the quarterly report at 31 March 2022 in Piazza Meda, which will be communicated to the market on May 5th.