Sitting on the roller coaster for Mps and Unicredit and Piazza Affari after the halt to the negotiations for a merger, with both titles proceeding with suspensions on the market and readmissions on the list.
The missed deal, Mediobanca analysts write in a report, represents “a missed opportunity for Unicredit” despite the fact that the bank led by Andrea Orcel remains, according to Piazzetta Cuccia, undervalued by the markets, also considering its strong capital position. After the failure of the negotiations on Mps for Unicredit, a scenario without extraordinary operations remains, according to the report, “the basic one” with the extension of incentives on DTAs that “could keep the door open to other options”.
In particular, according to Mediobanca, the extension of merger incentives is an important point for a possible marriage between Unicredit and Banco Bpm, but the government “now has less interest” in postponing their expiry.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the failure of the transaction with Unicredit “means that Italy will have to seek an extension” from the EU “for the sale of MPs” and that the Sienese institute “adopts measures to address its problems, namely legal risks, capital and high costs “going forward with the 2-2.5 billion euro capital increase”. Morgan Stanley analysts write it commenting on the end of negotiations between the Mef and the bank led by Andrea Orcel.
The lack of agreement is also judged negative for Unicredit “as the market will have to separate some of the merger synergies already anticipated from the current assessments but at the same time if the transaction does not go ahead with Mps, the prospect of a combination with Banco Bpm re-emerges, offering similar, if not greater benefits ”. Morgan Stanley recalls that Unicredit-Banco could transform 3.9 billion Dta into tax credits, thanks to the extension to June 2022 of the merger incentives. And in fact, Banco Bpm and Bper Banca shares are flying: the two institutions have in fact suddenly returned to the center of all scenarios of consolidation of the banking system, restarting the speculative appeal on the two securities. On the opposite side, however, the Carige title suffers: a solution for the MPS dossier would probably have also paved the way for the search for a partner for the Ligurian institute, which ended up in the orbit of the Interbank Protection Fund.