MILANO – Two things are certainly true: that the government is doing a lot to encourage mergers between banks, primarily MPS that the government itself must sell within 11 months, and that intermediaries are trying to hire those who invest in the next round of the merry-go-round.
For now, the moves of the leading bankers are lacking: nor is the impression that they will arrive soon. After all, the Sostegni bis decree, which extended the maximum benefit threshold by a round 50%, gives time until 30 June 2022 – six months more than expected in November 2020 – to take advantage of tax benefits that in all approach 10 billion. .
The most incentivized combinations are those that involve, as noted in a note from Mediobanca, “institutions with a greater weight of deferred tax assets, for example Unicredit, Mps, Carige”. These are deferred tax assets (“Dta”), which the legislation indicates in the financial statements as tax credits. But for the mergers announced by the beginning of 2022 (it takes months for the assembly clearances and we arrive in June), a mountain Dta of up to 3% of the assets of the prey will be computable as assets.
This is why yesterday morning there was a speculative flare-up on Mps, which closed with a rise of 2.59% and double trades compared to the average for the period. More money was poured into the whole sector, especially Popolare di Sondrio (-0.58% final), which in the afternoon retraced like all quoted values, while closing with drops of about half compared to the Ftse Mib index (- 1.81%). According to estimates by various analysts, the most favored combinations by the “Dta decree” are those between Unicredit and Banco Bpm, with 4.09 billion “dowry” (1.2 billion more than in the old text), closely followed by the marriage of Unicredit with Mps , which would benefit from 3.4 billion in higher tax capital (1.1 billion more than in the previous regulation).
Conversely, a wedding between Banco Bpm and Bper would reap insignificant tax benefits (0.95 billion) and a merger between Unicredit and Bper would have almost 2.1 billion. Behind the scenes, however, provided that the establishment of the new leaders of Unicredit and Bper can start a “study” phase, and that it can be extended until winter at least. With all due respect to the commitments made by the government with the EU to sell the bank of Siena as soon as possible, and no later than next April.
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