(Original title: Before the U.S. stock market: the “super roller coaster” quietly started, the three major futures indexes fluctuated cautiously)
News from the Financial Associated Press on January 23 (edited by Shi Zhengcheng)Just as Asian markets were immersed in the festive atmosphere of the Lunar New Year, U.S. stock futures rose slightly before the market on Monday. In the next two weeks, the market will face repeated shocks from macro policies and corporate financial reports, and it can be said that the giant roller coaster has just started slowly.
While the mood on Monday was a bit more laid-back, the next two weeks were the busiest of the new year:This week, the U.S. (last year) fourth-quarter GDP and December PCE price index will be released, and next week will be the highly anticipated “Super Central Bank Week”. Global monetary policy makers including the Federal Reserve will all appear on the scene.
In his latest article, Nick Timelaus of The New Fed News Agency said,The Fed may cut rate hikes to 25 basis points next week and debate the timing of a pause. However, considering that there is still time before the March and May meetings and there will be more data to refer to, it is unlikely that Powell will give very clear guidance.
Compared with the Fed’s policy response, which mainly depends on Powell’s “speaking skills”, the US stock earnings season is a collision of hard data. Microsoft, Texas Instruments, Intel, Tesla and other giants will disclose their results this week, while the Q4 financial reports of Apple, Amazon and Alphabet will also debut next week. Current market expectations,S&P 500 technology sector Q4 profit to fall 9.2% year-over-year. Considering that the technology sector accounts for more than a quarter of the S&P 500’s market value, these earnings reports can be said to affect the whole body.
Judging from the K-line chart, last week the S&P 500 index failed to challenge the downward trend line after challenging the record high, and then fell sharply, but the resistance level is still hanging in front of us. Michael Wilson, a well-known U.S. stock short and Morgan Stanley analyst, jumped out at the right time and said that the current improvement in sentiment in the U.S. stock market is not consistent with the background of weakening economic data and earnings reports.
(Daily chart of the S&P 500 Index, source: TradingView)
Market Dynamics
As of 21:09 Beijing time, Dow futures (March 23 contract) rose 0.15%, S&P 500 futures rose 0.14%; Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.22%.
Last week, the U.S. stock market reproduced the ups and downs of cloudy weather and uncertainty. The Dow Jones Index fell 2.70% for the week to 33375.49 points; the S&P 500 Index fell 0.66% to 3972.61 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 0.55% to 11140.43 points.
European markets continued to strengthen in the new week, with talk of Europe’s ability to escape a recession in recent days brightening the trading mood.
(European stock market trend on Monday, source: Investing)
company news
[Netease Announcement: Blizzard’s national server will officially stop at 0:00 on January 24]
NetEase released the “NetEase Farewell Letter to Blizzard National Server Players: Thank You for 14 Years” announcement today, officially announcing the suspension of Blizzard games. At 0:00 on January 24, 2023, “World of Warcraft”, “Hearthstone”, “Watching Pioneer”, “Diablo III”, “Warcraft III: Remastered Edition”, “Heroes of the Storm” represented by NetEase “, “StarCraft” series products, all operations in the Chinese mainland market will be officially terminated. Blizzard will close the Battle.net login and all game servers, and close the client download at the same time.
[Overseas technology giants layoffs continue: Spotify officially announced 6% layoffs]
Before the market opened on Monday, audio streaming giant Spotify released an open letter from Daniel Ek, announcing that the company would lay off 6% of its workforce. Daniel said that the company has made considerable efforts to control costs in the past few months, but this is far from enough. Affected by the news, Spotify rose more than 4% premarket.
[The new MacBook Air will be released before the end of the year at the earliest: equipped with a self-developed M3 chip]
According to the latest news from overseas media, Apple is internally developing a new MacBook Air that will be released in the second half of 2023, with 13-inch and 15-inch versions, and will be equipped with Apple’s self-developed M3 chip. According to the news, the Apple M3 chip was first mentioned in June 2022. It will adopt a higher specification 3nm process technology, which will increase the speed by up to 15% and reduce power consumption by 30% compared with 5nm.
[Abbott under criminal investigation over baby formula issue]
The U.S. Justice Department is investigating practices at Abbott Laboratories’ Sturgis, Mich., infant formula plant that shut down production last year and exacerbated shortages of infant formula across the United States, the media reported, citing people familiar with the matter. An Abbott spokesman confirmed that the Justice Department has notified the company of the investigation and is cooperating fully.
Lawyers with the U.S. Justice Department’s consumer protection division are conducting the criminal investigation, the people said. The unit was involved in a settlement last year that allowed Abbott to resume operations at the company’s Sturgis plant after FDA inspectors found a potentially deadly bacterium there.
[Elliott Asset Management is aggressively building a position in Salesforce]
Activist investor Elliott Asset Management, known for seeking board seats and pressuring corporate reforms, has invested “billions of dollars” in business software provider Salesforce, according to local media reports, although it is unclear Whether the fund made a reform appeal to the board. Jesse Cohen, the fund’s head of U.S. operations, responded only that he looked forward to working constructively with the firm to deliver value befitting its status. Affected by the news, the Dow component rose 4.95% pre-market.
[German antitrust agency launches investigation into Paypal]
The German antitrust agency “Federal Cartel Office” announced on Monday that it has launched an antitrust investigation into the US payment giant Paypal. Paypal is the market-leading online payment service in Germany, but also the most expensive, the agency said. The agency will conduct a review of PayPal’s terms of use, looking for items that “hamstring competitors or impede price competition.”
【Nokia and Samsung signed a patent cross-licensing agreement】
Nokia announced on Monday that it has signed a new patent cross-licensing agreement with Samsung Electronics covering the company’s fundamental inventions in 5G and other areas. Samsung will pay Nokia from January 1, 2023, and the previous agreement between the two parties has expired at the end of 2022.
Noteworthy events in the US stock market time period (Beijing time)
January 23rd
23:00 Conference Board Leading Indicators for December
January 24th
01:45 ECB President Christine Lagarde delivers a speech