Review of the New OTC Market in 2021: As of December 31, 2021,
1) Enterprise information: There are 5,749 basic-tier enterprises in the New Third Board, with a total market value of 1,056.6 billion yuan; 1,224 innovation-level enterprises with a total market value of 900.8 billion yuan.
2) Transaction information: There are 409 market-making companies on the New Third Board and 6,523 companies on bidding transactions. The annual growth rates of the three-board component index (899001.CSI) and the three-board market-making (899002.CSI) were 12.6% and 35.6%, respectively, and the average daily turnover was 610 million yuan and 230 million yuan, respectively.
3) Valuation: The average PE ttm of market-making companies is 35 times.
2021 Beijing Stock Exchange Market Review: The Beijing Stock Exchange will officially open on November 5, 2021. By the end of 2021,
1) Enterprise information: BBAC has 82 listed companies with a total market value of 272.2 billion yuan; there are 4.75 million investors.
2) Transaction information: From the opening of the market to the end of the year, the Zhongtai-Beijing Securities Simulated Index fell by 3.53%, and the average daily transaction value of the entire market was 1.9 billion yuan.
3) Valuation: The average PE ttm of the Beijing Stock Exchange is 34 times, and the PS ttm is 7.5 times.
The significance of the NEEQ and Beijing Stock Exchange in the multi-level capital market:
1) Serving SMEs. According to calculations based on the financial report data for 2020, SMEs accounted for 73% of the listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange; SMEs accounted for 72% of the innovative and basic listed companies on the New Third Board.
2) Promote the registration system. The Beijing Stock Exchange inherits the core of the registration system of the New Third Board market, and because of its current scale and development stage, it is expected to become a frontier market segment that promotes a comprehensive registration system.
3) Serving the development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and northern regions. Through its resource allocation capabilities, it will promote the development of capital markets and real economy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and the northern region.
The Beijing Stock Exchange market forecast in 2022:
1) Policy: The gradual advancement of market-oriented policies is conducive to maintaining and activating market vitality.
2) Fundamentals: Companies need time to digest the impact of costs, and profit growth will first decline and then rise.according toZhongtai SecuritiesThe macro group’s view of the Institute: In the first half of next year, corporate profits will still be affected by cost erosion, and further efforts are needed to stabilize growth measures. Looking forward to next year, with policy support, corporate profit growth is expected to improve. We believe that most companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange are still small and will generally achieve relatively high growth in 2021. The high base will take time to digest. We expect the overall profit growth rate of the market will first decline and then rise. Will the downward phase continue until mid-term reporting is required? Further observations will be made based on changes in the macro economy and the epidemic.
3) Investors: professional institutional investors dominate, strategic allotment andMake a newStill an important way of participation. As of December 2021, professional investor transactions on the Sci-tech Innovation Board accounted for nearly 90% and held 64% of the shares. We believe that the Beijing Stock Exchange market will show a similar development trend. In addition, according to the current issuance method, strategic allotment is a better way for investment institutions to achieve a balance between volume and price. Although the market is expected to usher in further improvements in liquidity in 2022 and more diversified issuance methods in practice, it is expected that strategic allotment and new creation will still be important participation methods for funding institutions.
Investment Strategy:
1) The overall market: It is expected that the overall market will decline and then rise in 2022. Taking into account the changing pace of corporate profitability and market sentiment, the market is under pressure in the early stage; however, as follow-up policy advances, more high-quality companies go public, and professional institutions continue to enter the market, the market will turn to an upward trend, and the future can be expected.
2) Main line logic: Pay attention to the logic of individual stocks, industry market effects, and downplay valuation repair. Although the overall valuation of the Beijing Stock Exchange is still discounted compared to the Science and Technology Innovation Board, we observe that since the opening of the Beijing Stock Exchange, the driving logic of the daily active stocks and the Shanghai and Shenzhen A shares has gradually converged. In the future, individual stocks’ own factors will become the main driving factor of stock prices, followed by the overall market stimulus effect of the industry, and the restoration of the overall valuation level is not the main logic of 2022.
3) Focus on R&D and innovative industry leaders: Among R&D and innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, there will be more hidden champions, focusing on companies that have industry-leading competitive advantages and continue to invest in R&D and innovation. Such as Chuangyuan Instruments and so on.
4) Capacity release companies in high-growth industries: Focus on the Internet of Things, new energy,Environmental protection new materialsCompanies that released production capacity this year in high-prosperity fields such as materials, yuan universe and so on.
Risk warning: The relevant policies of the Beijing Stock Exchange are lower than expected; the improvement of corporate profitability is lower than expected; the self-built simulation index or the limitation of the construction method may cause the data to deviate from the actual market conditions. The conclusion is for reference only; The public information used has risks such as lagging or untimely updating.
(Article Source:Zhongtai Securities）
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