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Bills, Arera sees a 20% drop for electricity in the second quarter

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Bills, Arera sees a 20% drop for electricity in the second quarter

After the -19% recorded in December for the first quarter of 2023, the forthcoming trend in electricity bills for the second period of the year could also bring good news to consumers. In the second quarter of this year, the electricity bills could in fact score a drop of “more than 20%”.

Significant drop in electricity prices

The estimate comes directly from president of Arera Stefano Besseghini, on the sidelines of an event on top Italian utilities organized by Althesis. “We had already partially intercepted this decrease in December of -19.4% on electricity and I believe that there will be a decrease also in the next quarter – detailed the president of the Energy Markets Authority – It will be realistically significant, at least corresponding to that of December if not higher”.

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With respect to electricity tariffs, Besseghini argued, “we can see the price trend, there is a very strong objective decrease that began in the last ten days of December, remained intense in January and is now decreasing anyway. We had already partially intercepted this decrease in December”.

The effects on families

The consumer associations immediately updated the cost estimates, with the forecast released by Besseghini. “With a 20% tariff cut, the average bill on the protected market would drop to 1,147 euros per year per family, with less spending at constant prices equal to 287 euros per family“, explains the president of Absolute usersFurio Truzzi. for theNational Consumer Union, who shares the calculation, “in any case, the emergency would be far from over. The price of electricity would in fact be more than double compared to the corresponding period of 2021, when the bill would have been equal to only 541 euros, a good 606 euro less”, points out the head of the energy sector Marco Vignola. Agree the Codacons which in fact underlines that the electricity bills “would result in the second quarter of 2023 104% more expensive than in the same quarter of 2021when the price of electricity on the protected market was 20.83 euro cents per kilowatt hour”.

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Gas “still slightly downhill”

As far as gas tariffs are concerned, Besseghini explained that – since the Authority has made the change to a price fixed on a monthly basis – “it no longer makes sense to ask what the prospect will be. At the beginning of April we will fix March and it will probably still be slightly down”. The gas bill, he explains, “having made a big leap between January and February, it is difficult for him to make another one taking into account that with today’s prices we are around 40 euros per megawatt hour. I am not saying that we are at historical values ​​but we’re much closer than before, so the jumps are also getting smaller.”

Just modulate the aids

The dynamics of the protected energy market are also central to the government’s choices, given that the support to families last renewed with the Budget Law expires at the end of March. From several institutions, from the ECB to the European Commission, has come the indication of cut subsidies, or at least aim them at the weakest groups, to bring public deficits back in line. In light of the decrease in energy prices, “it is right to modulate” government aid for electricity and gas bills, concurred Besseghini. “Now that prices are falling, the effects of these aids should also be modulated with price trends”, says Besseghini, explaining that today “the general economic situation is different from January 2021 when the price escalation began: inflation has bitten much more, the operators themselves have been exposed much more and there are various effects to balance”. “I think trade-off evaluations are being made between the various possible options,” he concluded.

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On this point, however, the same consumer associations are back to strike. For Assoutenti, the lack of aid makes the savings given by the drop in wholesale prices hypothetical. “The zeroing of system charges and the other concessions provided by the Government on bills will expire on 31 March. In the event of failure to extend the measure, the reintroduction of charges and VAT would cost 386.37 euros per year per family, leading to from April the electricity bill to grow, on the basis of current tariffs, by +27% compared to today’s tariffs”.

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