ROME. In the last quarter of the year, therefore starting from October, electricity bills in Italy could rise by 60%. And without government intervention, even 100%. As for gas, the bill for Italians could increase by 70% at the end of October. These are the forecasts made by Nomisma Energia, and the cause of the price increases is always the same: the race in the price of methane.
On the other hand, the positive news arrives that gas storage in Italy has reached 90%, the goal that the government had set for itself. But the risk of rationing is not averted: if the winter is harsh, and if Russia closes the taps, it may become necessary to cut consumption between February and March.
Nomisma estimates that electricity bills could increase by about 60% in the next quarter, with a new high in the price of electricity of 66.6 cents per kWh, 25 cents more than in the previous quarter. Without government intervention, the surge would be as much as 100%.
The public authority that sets the energy tariffs (Arera) will announce the update of the cost of light by the end of September. For that of gas, we will have to wait for the beginning of November. But Nomisma Energia’s preliminary estimate is an increase of 70%.
“After two quarters in which bills have remained steady thanks to strong government interventions, the Arera is forced to revise them upwards since October, at least for electricity – explains the president of Nomisma Energia, Davide Tabarelli -. For that of gas, it is necessary to wait until the end of October, because with the new mechanism approved last summer, the variations will be monthly and will be determined with the actual prices of the month ended ». For Tabarelli, “assuming that gas prices on the PSV Italian wholesale market, much lower than the TTF in Amsterdam, stabilize throughout the month of October, there would be a 70% change in the gas tariff to the protected, to 210 cents per cubic meter “.
On the storage front, the news came that Italy had already filled its gas reserves to 90% at the end of September. The Agsi + database of Gas Infrastructure Europe (Gie), the organization of European gas infrastructure operators (gas pipelines, deposits, regasifiers) indicates that national methane reserves are 173.36 terawatt hours, 89.62% of capacity overall. This is better than the EU average. Here the reserves are 87.73%, 976.95 TWh.
The Minister of Ecological Transition, Roberto Cingolani, has said several times that the government’s goal is to reach 90% of stocks by the autumn. Goal achieved, we can say today. However, the dangers have not disappeared. «That national gas stocks have reached almost 90% is good news – explains Tabarelli -, but it does not allow us to be completely calm for the winter. If there are many cold days and consumption increases, we may be forced to ration gas in late February or early March. This winter we will not yet be able to count on the new regasification plant in Piombino and on the increase in national production. If Russia were to turn off the taps completely, the situation would be even more difficult ».
To avoid reaching rationing, the government in early September launched a gas savings plan for this cold season: minus 1 degree of heating in buildings, 15 fewer days of boilers and 1 hour less per day ( 3.2 billion cubic meters saved); boost to energy production from sources other than methane (2.1 billion); a campaign to promote virtuous behavior on the part of citizens (2.9 billion). In total, this plan would lead a single family to save € 607.58 per year on their bills.