If there was one word to sum up what the market is saying about the latest financial statistics, “beyond expectations” deserves to be on the list.
Although the market had previously expected that the new credit and social financing data in September would continue to pick up, the 2.47 trillion yuan in new RMB loans and the 3.53 trillion in social financing increments still far exceeded the average market estimates. At the same time as the increase in the amount of easy credit, the credit structure reflecting the quality and efficiency of easy credit has also improved. In particular, the loan structure of enterprises has improved significantly. Medium and long-term loans have increased by more than 650 billion year-on-year, while the impulse effect of bills has been further weakened, reflecting that the entity The margin of economic financing needs has improved.
The driving force for the double increase in credit quality and quality in September was mainly due to the successive implementation of the policy of stabilizing growth and increments. The improvement of corporate loans and entrusted loans in the month is inseparable from the increase in support policies in the fields of manufacturing and real estate. For example, the supporting financing formed by the 600 billion development policy financial instruments has been accelerated, and the medium and long-term loans in the manufacturing industry have been accelerated and increased in volume. The special loans for “guaranteing the construction of the building” have been put in place one after another, and these policy support will continue in the fourth quarter, especially the addition of new policies such as the 200 billion equipment renovation loan since October and the increase in the real estate credit investment of large state-owned banks, combined with the National Day holiday. Judging from the situation of banks working overtime to release loans during the period, the seasonal effect of the traditional “9-up and 10-down” credit issuance may not appear this year.
Credit and social financing data is regarded as a leading indicator in macro data, and its continuous repair has laid an important foundation for macroeconomic repair and stabilization. Even if we look closely at the credit and social financing structure in September, there are still deficiencies such as weak household credit and sluggish corporate debt net financing. However, with the continuous support of the policy of stabilizing growth, the endogenous economic vitality represented by consumer demand is expected to gradually recover. it is good.
Entering October, the task of steady economic growth this year will usher in the final quarterly sprint. The economy in the fourth quarter is the heaviest in the whole year. Many policies for stabilizing growth that have been introduced recently will play a greater role in the fourth quarter. All parties should exert greater initiative, seize the time window and node, and continue to consolidate the momentum of economic stabilization and upward movement. Next year, the economy will get off to a good start and lay a solid foundation.
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