Unipol’s move on the Popolare di Sondrio is held today in Piazza Affari. After an initial positive reaction with a jump of more than + 5%, the Popolare Sondrio stock turned red (-1.5%). To trudge the most is Bper with over -5% at 2.01 euros. Unicredit, on the other hand, sells 2.57%. In general, the entire EU banking sector is suffering, among the best in recent weeks in the wake of expectations for a strong recovery in economic activity in the next few quarters and the results beyond expectations from the bank accounts in the 1st quarter.
Returning to Unipol’s move, according to analysts it increases the probability of a deal between Bper and Bp Sondrio. At the same time, the probabilities of a rapprochement between Bper and Banco BPM seem to diminish, a hypothesis that in recent days was back in vogue. Banco Bpm stock is the one that holds better today (-0.14%) with market operators returning to see a scenario as favored by Banco BPM prey to Unicredit.
Intesa Sanpaolo analysts point out that the possibility of an agreement between Banco Bpm and Bper has not completely disappeared.
Yesterday evening UnipolSai launched a reverse ABB (reverse accelerated book-building) on 6.62% of the share capital of Banca Popolare di Sondrio (30 million shares) – of which it is already a shareholder with 2.9% – aimed at achieving a total holding of 9.51%, just below the ECB materiality threshold of 10%. The premium offered for the shares of Pop Sondrio is included in the range 2% -4% compared to yesterday’s closing price of the stock.
La Popolare Sondrio is the bank with the best performance in the last 12 months (+ 211% vs + 61% of the Italian banking sector and + 43% FTSE MIB) “and deals with a 2021-22E P / TE of 0.6 times, at a premium of> 20% compared to the 0.5 times average of the most direct peers (Banco BPM, Bper and Credem) ”, remarks Equita SIM.