Green light of the Council of Ministers to the budget gap and to the Def. The government is asking Parliament to use an extra deficit of 40 billion to finance the next decree which will focus on refreshments and business liquidity.
The Cdm also approved the Economics and Finance Document with the macroeconomic framework and the lines of action for the coming months. The GDP estimate for 2021 stands at 4.5%, a figure that is given by the trend growth acquired at 4.1% (under current legislation) and by the boost of the Recovery plan and the measures that will be implemented.
This further debt of 40 billion, which is added to the 140 billion extra deficit already allocated in a year of pandemic, determines a surge in the deficit which this year is forecast at 11.8%. According to the government’s intention, the investment impulse should bring the deficit / GDP ratio back to below 3% in 2025.
The Def also contains a complementary loan to the Recovery plan, an ad hoc fund that will be fed between now and 2026 to carry out the works excluded from the Pnrr. This line of credit will be around 30 billion over six years.
The other predictions
In 2022 the GDP will grow by 4.8% and then by 2.6% in 2023 and by 1.8% in 2024. These are “rates of increase never experienced in the last decade”, underlines Palazzo Chigi.
The deficit / GDP ratio will drop to 5.9% in 2022, 4.3% in 2023 and 3.4% in 2024.
Debt is estimated at 159.8% in 2021, before decreasing to 156.3% in 2022, 155% in 2023 and 152.7% in 2024.