© Reuters. Can A-share rebound be reversed? What are the main lines of investment?The top ten brokerage strategies are here
Financial Associated Press, June 12 (Editor Yao Hui) The latest strategic views of the top ten securities companies have been released, as follows:
CITIC Securities: The main market for valuation repair is still in the early stages
The rapid recovery of the domestic economy and the significant relief of external pressure have jointly promoted the restoration of investor confidence, active private placements, public fund rebalancing, and continuous inflow of foreign capital to bring incremental capital relay. The four major mainline repairs will be more balanced at the beginning of the reporting season. First of all, investor confidence is recovering rapidly, the progress of economic recovery has exceeded expectations, epidemic prevention and control and economic development have been further coordinated, the global trade environment has improved in stages under the pressure of inflation, and the pressure on manufacturing costs has gradually eased. Secondly, incremental funds began to form a relay effect. Private placements that had fully reduced their positions during the market adjustment in May became the main body of active increase in positions and marginal pricing. Public offerings flowed from stable growth varieties to illiquid growth sectors, resulting in the latter in the short term. The domestic market has risen sharply, and foreign capital has resumed continuous inflow after the local epidemic has eased and the platform-based economic policy has become clearer. Finally, judging from the stage at which this round of mid-term market recovery has lasted for several months, the market has just passed the stage of calming down pessimism. From June to the mid-term report season is the main market stage of valuation recovery. The current main line of resumption of work and production is the first to be repaired. It is expected that the four major mainline repairs will be relatively balanced at the beginning of the mid-year report season.
In terms of configuration, it is recommended to actively add related industries that resume work and production, focusing on smart cars and parts, semiconductors, photovoltaic wind power equipment, etc. Consumption restoration-related areas focus on aviation, hotels, duty-free, food and beverage, department stores and supermarkets. Driven by a package of policies such as the subsidence of the large-scale epidemic, bailouts of market players and consumption stimulation, these industries are also expected to usher in a phased recovery. With the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, it is suggested that the infrastructure sector should focus on low-valued building leaders, power grids, data centers and cloud infrastructure, and the real estate sector should focus on high-quality developers, property management and building materials. We expect that the four main lines with the clearest expectations will show the characteristics of slow growth in rotation, and the market will rise alternately with the mid-term repair.
Huaan Securities: Short-term sentiment continues to rise and is suppressed due to repeated external inflation and domestic epidemic
After the market rebounded quickly and smoothly in the early stage, the volatility has intensified recently, especially the ChiNext Index. With the U.S. CPI rising beyond expectations in May, the Fed’s interest rate meeting on June 16 is approaching, market tightening expectations are intensifying, and domestic epidemics have repeated important marginal changes, market risk appetite may converge in the near future.
Continue to pay attention to the two main lines of short-term marginal improvement of consumption and steady growth: 1) Post-epidemic recovery of consumer demand. In the short-term post-pandemic period, the consumption margin will be more elastically repaired. Automobiles, semiconductors, food and beverages were largely suppressed by the epidemic in Shanghai and Beijing in the early stage. After the resumption of work and production, both automobiles and semiconductors have undergone significant marginal repairs. With the gradual recovery of the service industry, food and beverages will also usher in significant marginal repairs. In addition, we can also pay attention to travel chains such as hotels, restaurants, expressways, airports, scenic spots, etc., where the short-term concentrated release of travel demand after the epidemic and the mid- and long-term performance are expected to usher in inflection points. 2) Under the background of policy catalysis boosting risk appetite and performance support, it is still possible to continue to configure the stable growth chain. It is recommended to pay attention to the short-term existing construction materials (cement, steel, glass, etc.), traditional infrastructure such as water conservancy construction, power grid, and gas pipeline network renovation, as well as new and old infrastructure fields such as UHV and new power grid construction.
Guotai Junan: It is expected that the upward revision will open up the space to call back the growth of the car selection
In the past two weeks, with the unblocking of many places, investors’ expectations for the economy have improved significantly, risk assessments have declined, and risk appetite has rebounded at the bottom. We have revised the Shanghai Composite Index to an upward operating range. The judgment on the A-share market is generally optimistic. Given that this round of market rebound has accumulated a large increase, if there is a correction, it is a good opportunity to invest in A-shares.
Callback on the growth of the car selection, the investment style has changed from emphasizing the certainty of performance to the high-profit growth sector with greater flexibility in demand improvement. The fundamentals of new energy have seen real improvement, and the rise of stock prices against the trend will further drive the spread of the growth market with high profit growth. Recommendations: 1) High-prosperity growth sectors: electric vehicles/photovoltaics/wind power/military industry/computer (Xinchuang); 2) Dilemma reversal: auto parts/liquor/live pigs/hotels. 3) Hong Kong stock technology leader. In addition, the activity of individual stocks has increased, focusing on investment themes: automotive intelligence / charging and replacing batteries / new materials / virtual reality / carbon inflation / reform of state-owned enterprises, etc.
Haitong Securities: Taking history as a mirror, the first wave of restoration at the bottom is in progress
In the past five bear markets, after the bottom of the bear market, the first wave of the recovery market index increased by 17-35%, with an average of 25%, and then pared back about 0.6 of the increase, mainly because the fundamentals were not solid. The market low point in April was a shallow V-shaped reversal bottom. The first wave of repairs is in progress against the benchmark history. The future twists and turns may be due to the recovery of domestic inflation, the downward revision of profit forecasts and external disturbances.
Maintain the judgment in late April, that is, the new infrastructure is better in stages, such as the digital economy and low-carbon economy, and the second half of the third quarter will focus on consumption.
Industrial Securities: Cherish the layout period of the “new half army” under overseas turmoil
Since May, the restoration of the “New Half Army” has been performed as scheduled, leading the market. The recent overseas turmoil + congestion has increased, and the “new semi-military” may enter into shock consolidation. However, the shock period will be a layout period: 1) The impact of overseas on A shares is more of the release of tail risks, and does not constitute a systemic impact. 2) The domestic economy is gradually picking up, and the policy is likely to remain loose.
Structurally, the short-term focus on large consumption (alcohol, duty-free, aviation, scenic spots and hotels) + the direction of continued prosperity in the “new semi-military” (photovoltaic modules/silicon wafers, automobiles, new military materials/structures) parts, wind turbines/upstream materials, semiconductor materials/equipment, 5G fiber optic cables). In the medium and long term, the market style is expected to gradually return to technological growth. It is recommended to focus on the six major directions of “specialized, refined and new”: 1) new energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5G, etc. ), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, robots, advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical equipment and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.), 6) food security (seed industry, biotechnology, fertilizer, etc.).
CICC: Liquidity easing supports sentiment recovery
The domestic price level is relatively moderate, and the main contradiction is still weak demand. At the same time, from the beginning of the year to the end of April, the adjustment of the Chinese market has been relatively large, and the valuation is relatively low. Recently, the domestic epidemic situation has improved significantly, the resumption of work and production has deepened, the market sentiment has gradually improved, and it is more stable than overseas. The short-term A-share market may still be expected to continue to recover amid fluctuations, but in the second half of the year, under the influence of internal and external uncertainties, the market path may not be unilaterally upward, and the room for absolute market returns depends on whether China can achieve basic growth as soon as possible. continued to stabilize and improve.
Structurally, it is recommended to focus on “stable” in the second half of the year. The recent growth style has been widely concerned by the market. We believe that under the background of loose liquidity, some of the growth in the early stage with a large decline, the valuation and earnings are gradually matching, and the prosperity level is maintained at a high level. , and the opportunity to switch from a strategic style to growth requires attention to progress in overseas inflation and steady growth in China.
Currently focusing on three directions: 1) “Stable growth” or areas with policy support: infrastructure (traditional infrastructure and some new infrastructure), building materials, automobiles and housing-related industries have policy expectations or actual policy support; 2) Valuation Areas that are not high and are relatively uncorrelated with macro fluctuations, especially some high-dividend areas: such as infrastructure, power and utilities, hydropower, etc.; 3) Fundamentals have bottomed out, supply is constrained or the degree of prosperity continues to improve Some fields: agriculture, some non-ferrous metals and some chemical sub-sectors, coal, and photovoltaic and military industries.
CITIC Construction Investment: The tone of the volatile market pattern should not be easily followed by high and low levels
In general, from the perspective of the external environment, we believe that the market is about to enter a new turbulent pattern from the “golden pit” repair and uptrend stage we proposed at the bottom of April: the revision of the short-term economic repair progress expectations and the strengthening of US stagflation expectations are all positive for A shares. Further upside to form suppression. Of course, these factors are not completely unexpected new shock factors in the market. At present, the market does not have the conditions to return to the bottom of the “golden pit”.
Therefore, investors can consider based on the tone of the volatile market pattern, not chasing highs easily, and deploying at lows, focusing on growth stocks with certain performance growth and some resources and consumer goods that have the ability to raise prices. Focus on: military industry, photovoltaics, automobiles, lithium, coal, agriculture, food and beverage, securities companies, etc.
Huaxi Securities: Entering the upper stage on the right side of the U-shaped market
The “money-making effect” has lasted for more than a month, and the current A-share market is still in the mood to go long, but while we are optimistic, we should also beware of normal adjustments after the market has risen too fast. First, under the pressure of high inflation, overseas central banks accelerate the disturbance of monetary tightening; second, corporate profits are still the constraints of the current market’s continued upward trend, and the interim reports of many industries will face pressure. We believe that A-shares have entered the upper right-side stage of the U-shaped market. Appropriate rest during a certain window period, and the profit factor will play a periodic role, which may make the market more stable and farther. From a medium and long-term perspective, A-shares are in a solid bottom range, and the trend of the center’s gradual upward movement has not changed.
In terms of industry allocation, focus on three main investment lines: 1) Low valuation and high prosperity sectors: mining, petroleum and petrochemical, electric power, etc.; 2) New energy (vehicles) and upstream and downstream industry chains, new energy high prosperity sectors: new energy vehicles, Batteries, power grids, photovoltaics, etc.; 3) The valuation has returned to a relatively reasonable range and has a moat: first-line liquor.
Open source securities: if adjustment is still a good time for layout
The A-share market may adjust next week, but it will not change the trend of this round of periodic rebounds. If the adjustment is still a good time for layout. As far as the upward trend of A shares is concerned, not only has it not been “broken”, but it has been further strengthened. Mainly based on the following analysis conclusions: First, since March 15, we have continued to emphasize that standing at the starting point of loose liquidity, the remaining expansion of liquidity in the A-share market in the future will be a high probability event. Second, the expansion of manufacturing investment in the second half of the year is expected to reverse the decline of the domestic economy, and the probability of A-share fundamentals reversal is gradually increasing. Third, the impact of U.S. monetary tightening on A-shares may be relatively limited, whether at present or in the medium and long term in the future.
Maintaining the view of growth style or the main line of the market unchanged, it is recommended to increase the allocation of large-cap stocks with a market value of more than 50 billion. The specific industries focus on two major directions: first, new energy, semiconductor and military industries with high liquidity sensitivity and booming economy, especially the industries with “centralized release of supply” after the epidemic, including: new energy vehicles>logistics>semiconductor; A broker whose fundamentals are highly dependent on liquidity. In addition, in order to reduce the combination fluctuation during the adjustment period, it can be adapted to food processing and liquor with a high degree of prosperity.
Western Securities: Short-term turbulent risks are rising, optimizing the structure to win while maintaining stability
The market’s expectations for post-pandemic recovery are close to an equilibrium level. Compared with the historical bear market rebound, the time and space interpretation of this round of rebound has not yet reached the extreme. After the recovery and rebound after the epidemic, the market focus will return to certainty, and the strategic layout opportunities in the consumer sector will be seized in the second half of the year.
The risk of short-term turbulence is rising, and the structure is optimized to achieve stability and win. With the recent repeated overseas inflation, increasing downward pressure on the US economy, rising domestic CPI upside risks, and a flattening of the pace of economic recovery, the certainty of the market grasping style in the second half of the year will be more important than chasing higher expected yields. There are two main lines of focus in the short term. One is the agriculture and energy sectors (oil and gas, coal, energy storage, etc.) that benefit from inflation. With the US CPI data in May hitting a 40-year high and the EU embargoing natural gas, the global inflation level may further increase in the future. The second is to focus on the energy metal sector with high prices in the first half of the year and certainty in the interim report. In the medium term, we will focus on the pan-agricultural sectors (planting and seeding, aquaculture, fertilizers and pesticides, agricultural cold-chain logistics, agricultural mechanization, etc.) that benefit from rising CPI, as well as leading consumer industries such as food and beverages, home appliances, and pharmaceuticals with solid performance.