Home Business Canadian new-crop rapeseed gradually arrives in Hong Kong, and domestic soybean meal spot basis returns |

Canadian new-crop rapeseed gradually arrives in Hong Kong, and domestic soybean meal spot basis returns |

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Canadian new-crop rapeseed gradually arrives in Hong Kong, and domestic soybean meal spot basis returns |

Research report text

Double meal:

【Variety view】

domesticsoybeanandsoybean mealInventory is still at a historically low level, the operating rate of oil plants has rebounded, and the crushing volume has risen to 2 million tons. The domestic soybean meal spot basis has returned. Because the market is still at a discount, the market is resistant to falling. After the futures level, there is room for hedging in the market.

【Operation Suggestions】

The double meal has kept long orders at the low level in recent months and left the market at a profit. Soybean meal 2301 contract pressure level is 4400, support level is 4080; rapeseed meal 2301 contract pressure level is 3200, support level is 2970.

【Stock situation】

As of December 2, the spot price of soybean meal was 4,972 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 77 yuan/ton, and the turnover was 29,800 tons; the basis price was 4,968 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 17 yuan/ton, and the turnover was 20,000 tons. The basis of the main soybean meal contract was 739 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton from the previous month.

【Business factor】

The U.S. Department of Agriculture said that private exporters reported export sales of 136,000 tons of soybeans to China, with deliveries in the 2022/23 marketing year ending on November 25. domestic soybean meal inventory was 182,000 tons, an increase of 33,000 tons from last week’s 149,000 tons; the total domestic imported rapeseed inventory was 336,000 tons, a decrease of 101,000 tons from last week’s 437,000 tons; domestic imports The inventory of pressed rapeseed meal was 9,000 tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from last week’s 0.000 tons.

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【Bad factors】

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) proposed to increase the biofuel blending obligations for the next three years, but its standards fell short of market expectations. The EPA also claimed that the Biden administration has finally approved the use of canola oil for the production of renewable diesel and other biofuels. Canada’s new crop rapeseed has arrived in Hong Kong one after another, with 720,000 to 840,000 tons of shipments from December to December 14, and the direct import of rapeseed is expected to average 130,000 to 160,000 tons per month.

【Risk factors】

International crude oil, US dollar.

grease:

【Variety view】

The OPEC+ meeting maintained the production reduction target in November, and international crude oil futures prices rose again.palmOil export data is good. Palm oil has entered a seasonal production reduction cycle. Domestic rapeseed oil stocks are at historically low levels. The catering consumption data is bleak, and the short-to-medium-term oil differentiation trend is the main trend. After the previous decline, there is currently a rebound demand waiting for the rebound to sell short again, and the long-term bearish thinking remains unchanged.

【Operation Suggestions】

The trend of short-term and medium-term oils and fats is mainly differentiated, and the medium-term oscillation is intensified, and the short-term thinking is maintained in the long-term. Y2301 contract pressure level is 9550, support level is 8970; P2301 contract pressure level is 8750, support level is 7770; OI2301 contract pressure level is 11400, support level is 10900.

【Stock situation】

As of December 2, the average spot price of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 10,030 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the basis was 788 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 14 yuan/ton; Down 190 yuan / ton; basis difference 178 yuan / ton, up 34 yuan / ton from the previous month; Jiangsu rapeseed oil average price 12960 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton from the previous month, basis 1839 yuan / ton, down 11 yuan / ton from the previous month Ton.

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【Business factor】

According to data from the Southern Palm Fruit Manufacturers Association of Malaysia (SPPOMA), Malaysia’s palm oil production fell by 8.43% month-on-month in November, of which the yield per unit area of ​​fresh fruit bunches (FFB) fell by 8.38% month-on-month, and the oil yield rate (OER) fell by 0.01% month-on-month. As of November 25, the domestic soybean oil inventory was 765,000 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons from last week’s 767,000 tons; the domestic imported pressed rapeseed oil inventory was 201,000 tons, an increase of 46,000 tons from last week’s 155,000 tons ; The total domestic palm oil inventory was 843,000 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from 806,000 tons last week.

【Bad factors】

The Ministry of Trade of Malaysia said on Thursday that according to the anti-profiteering and price control order, the country will set the price ceiling of 5 kilograms of bottled cooking oil at 30.9 ringgits starting from December 8, and the price limit will last for one month. This is part of the government’s ongoing efforts to ease price pressures on consumers. During the period, the upper limit of the price of 1 kg bottled edible oil in the country was 6.90 MYR, the upper limit of the price of every two 1 kg bottled edible oil was 13.30 MYR, and the upper limit of the price of every three 1 kg bottled edible oil was 19.60 MYR.

【Risk Factors】

International crude oil, US dollar.

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Sina Statement: This news is reproduced from Sina’s cooperative media. Sina.com publishes this article for the purpose of conveying more information, which does not mean agreeing with its views or confirming its description. Article content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.

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