Industry insiders commented that ChatGPT is to the AI industry, just like the birth of the iPhone 4 is to the mobile Internet. But the speed at which ChatGPT creates bubbles is as fast as its popularity.
On February 6, the luxury e-commerce platform Secoo, which was deeply rumored to be closed down, announced the combination of ChatGPT and luxury business, and the US stock market soared 120% before the market; in the A-share market, Wind data showed that the ChatGPT index rose by 30.18% last week . Hanwang Technology, which has a pre-loss of 140 million in 2022, has ushered in its sixth daily limit after the Spring Festival…
Since the birth of ChatGPT, the number of users has exceeded 100 million in just two months, and it has once again become popular on the entire network. Global technology giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Meta have accelerated their deployment, triggering heated discussions among domestic capital markets and practitioners.
According to “Deep Web”, many AI and NFT related practitioners are planning to start businesses on the AIGC (generated AI) track, and they have already begun to seek funds in the primary market. A number of investment managers in the primary market told “Deep Web” that at present, the institutions are studying ChatGPT internally, and their attention to the AIGC track has increased significantly. A founding partner of a hard technology investment institution told “Deep Web”, “We are already investing in projects on the AIGC track.”
2022 is called the first year of AIGC. With the help of ChatGPT, AIGC is once again under the spotlight of capital. Sequoia Capital predicts that generative AI tools such as ChatGPT will allow machines to start to engage in knowledge and creative work on a large scale, and it is expected to generate trillions of dollars in economic value in the future.
Bill Gates previously commented on ChatGPT, saying that the emergence of this artificial intelligence technology is of great historical significance, no less than the birth of the Internet and personal computers.
“ChatGPT is so popular at the moment, it has been blessed by a group of technology giants, and it seems to have become a belief that cannot be falsified.”An entrepreneur in the field of AI expressed emotion to “Deep Web”.
Programmers use ChatGPT to “kill” programmers——ChatGPT’s impact on IT, education, finance, creation and many other professional fields is currently being widely discussed, but the enthusiasm of the capital market and academia has gradually deviated from rationality.
With the surge in users and the expected charges approaching, it has become increasingly difficult for ordinary users to log in to ChatGPT. In fact, ChatGPT still has a long way to go, whether it is the cost problem and commercialization prospects, the effectiveness and real value of the generated content, or its own learning and growth mechanism.
An AI entrepreneur told “Deep Web” that after so many years of entrepreneurship, he is still very wary of the wind, “ChatGPTIt makes foam as fast as it explodes. “
Lost Microsoft regains glory, Google rushes to fight
On November 30, 2022, OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (Sam Altman) announced the launch of the chat robot model ChatGPT on Twitter. UBS reports that the user growth rate of ChatGPT, the social media application may only be realized in a dream. UBS said it took TikTok nine months to reach 100 million monthly users, while Instagram took two and a half years to reach that figure.
Recently, after Microsoft announced a $10 billion investment in cooperation with OpenAI, the parent company of ChatGPT, Google quickly invested in Anthropic, an OpenAI competitor and artificial intelligence startup. On February 4, Google Cloud, Google’s cloud computing division, announced a new partnership with Anthropic.
According to reports, for this cooperation, Google invested about US$300-400 million in Anthropic and obtained a 10% stake in the company. This financing will increase Anthropic’s post-investment valuation to nearly US$5 billion. Anthropic was required to purchase cloud computing resources from Google.
Anthropic was founded in 2021, and its co-founder Dario Amodei used to be the vice president of research at OpenAI. The company is committed to the research and development of large-scale generative models and general-purpose voice assistants, and has successfully developed an intelligent chat robot called Claude, which is comparable to ChatGPT, but it has not yet been released publicly and is still in the beta stage.
Unlike Microsoft, which integrates OpenAI’s technology into many of its services, Google sees Anthropic only as a technology provider for the AI race, according to people familiar with the matter.
Google CEO Sundar Pichai said in an earnings call on February 2 that Google will soon add advanced artificial intelligence features to its search engine. He said,Large language models will be released in the “coming weeks and months”.
In response to competition from ChatGPT, Google is testing a ChatGPT-like chatbot “Apprentice Bard” (Apprentice Bard), which is based on Google’s dialogue model LaMDA (Language Model for Dialogue Applications), which can ask questions and get similar Detailed answers from ChatGPT.
In fact, since ChatGPT went online, Google has been under pressure. Sundar Pichai has participated in several meetings around Google’s artificial intelligence strategy to discuss how to deal with ChatGPT’s threat to the company’s search engine.
Google’s old rival Microsoft, which has fallen behind in the era of search and mobile Internet, is now hoping to regain its former glory with ChatGPT.
Microsoft invested $1 billion in OpenAI in October 2019, and Microsoft and OpenAI have been deeply bound. ChatGPT, which was added to Microsoft’s Teams product last week, can also help people write emails in Outlook.
During the World Economic Forum in 2023, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (Satya Nadella) said in an interview with the media that the company plans to integrate OpenAI’s artificial intelligence tools, such as ChatGPT, into all of the company’s products, and Provided as a platform for other companies to use.
Satya Nadella said that Microsoft will rapidly advance the commercialization process of OpenAI tools, and that every Microsoft product in the future will include some AI functions. In addition, Microsoft will also integrate it into the Bing search engine system, and integrate ChatGPT into the family bucket of Office office suites, such as Word and PowerPoint.
“The ChatGPT version of the public experience is just a technology preview Demo (demonstration). What is really likely to subvert is that Microsoft integrates it into products such as Office and Bing (Bing).” A senior practitioner in the field of AI told ” Deep Web”.
In the past weekend, Microsoft Bing quietly launched a new version, and the new version of Bing integrated with ChatGPT was briefly launched. Whether Bing can take advantage of ChatGPT to make a comeback in the search field, the industry will wait and see.
As early as three months before ChatGPT was released, Facebook parent company Meta had released its chatbot Blenderbot. But Yann LeCun, Meta’s chief scientist and Turing Award winner, said that unlike ChatGPT, which had more than 1 million users within five days of its launch, Meta’s Blenderbot was boring.
Apple CEO Tim Cook (Tim Cook) also said in the earnings conference call on February 3 that AI is the focus of Apple’s layout.
The popularity of ChatGPT has recently brought domestic Baidu into focus. According to reports, Baidu will launch an artificial intelligence chat robot service similar to ChatGPT in March. The initial version will be embedded in Baidu search service, allowing users to obtain conversational search results .
Baidu confirmed today that the name of the project is Wenxinyiyan, and the English name is ERNIE Bot. It will be open to the public after the internal testing is completed in March. Affected by this news, Baidu’s Hong Kong stock market rose 15% after the market opened.
ChatGPT brought fire to the AIGC track
At the beginning of 2023, the primary market is already slowly heating up. The explosion of ChatGPT not only ignited the AIGC track, but also made the AI track come alive again.
In the past year, the global primary market has experienced a cold winter. There are very few AIGC track financing events in the first half of 2022: In January, Hyperparameter Technology announced the completion of the B-round financing of US$100 million, led by Sequoia China, followed by old shareholders Wuyuan Capital and Gaorong Capital; at the same time, IDEAL IDOL completed the seed round of financing; in February, Lanzhou Technology completed the Pre-A round of financing of nearly 100 million yuan.
In the second half of the year, the domestic AIGC track became more lively. In July, Digital Lichang completed tens of millions of angel rounds of financing; in September, Zhipu AI announced that it had obtained hundreds of millions of yuan in round B financing; in October, Huiye Technology completed tens of millions of yuan Tens of millions of dollars in angel round financing and Biaobei Technology completed tens of millions of B rounds of financing; in November, Xiaoice announced the completion of a new financing of 1 billion yuan, and peer customer data obtained tens of millions of strategic financing; in December, Lingxin Intelligent completed tens of millions of 10,000 yuan angel + round of financing, FancyTech received A round of financing.
Investment institutions such as Sequoia Capital, Hillhouse Capital, Legend Ventures, Shunwei Capital, Qiming Ventures, and Lianxing Capital have all deployed in the AIGC field. It is rare for investment institutions to invest in a track-based layout, and 2022 is also known as the first year of AIGC.
According to data from research firm CB Insights, there will be 110 venture capital deals related to the AIGC concept in 2022, with an investment amount exceeding US$2.6 billion.
In 2022, investment institutions will invest more than $2.654 billion in generative AI
According to CB Insights statistics, there are currently about 250 start-ups in the ChatGPT concept field, 51% of which are in the A round or angel round of financing. In 2022, the ChatGPT and generative AI (AIGC) fields will attract more than 2.6 billion US dollars, and a total of 6 unicorns will be born. The highest valuation is 29 billion US dollars OpenAI.
On October 19 last year, Jasper.ai, an AIGC company that focuses on text generation, announced the completion of a $125 million Series A round of financing, with a valuation of $1.5 billion. On October 18, StabilityAI announced that it had received US$101 million. The company announced that it would continue to develop AI generative models for generating images, language, audio, video, and 3D, with a post-investment valuation of US$1 billion.
Undoubtedly, investment institutions are optimistic about the business prospects of ChatGPT and AIGC track. Sequoia Capital predicts that it is expected to generate trillions of dollars in economic value in the future.
The concept of ChatGPT is not only sought after by investment institutions in the primary market, but also in the global secondary market, AIGC field is also popular.
BuzzFeed (BZFD) announced that it will use OpenAI software to create test questions and personalized content. The company’s stock price has more than doubled in the past week; C3.ai (AI) is an enterprise software company that develops analytics software tools for large enterprises. The company’s share price has risen by about 87% in a month. C3.ai announced plans to launch a new natural language search service for enterprise software applications including ChatGPT.
As of February 3, the wind artificial intelligence index has increased by more than 20% since the end of last year. On February 1, the index’s single-day increase has exceeded 8%. Sun Jiaxu, manager of Cathay Pacific Golden Bull Innovation and Growth Fund, said, “AI may become a new round of technology mainline, and its strategic position is of great significance. Marginal changes will attract the attention of industries and funds. Like the previous investment boom caused by AlphaGo, ChatGPT also satisfies the Some imagination space for everyone in the performance vacuum period.”
Relevant concept stocks such as Saiwei Smart, Haitian Ruisheng, Yuncong Technology, Chuling Information and Hanvon Technology, etc., saw their share prices rise by 60% or 70% last week.
Some major shareholders of enterprises began to reduce their holdings to make profits. According to statistics, five directors, supervisors and senior executives including Zhong Peiya, Du Xuejun, Wu Wei, Sun Mingdong, and Shen Jianfei took turns to reduce their holdings within a week of Intelligent Control, with a total cash amount of nearly 70 million yuan.
Controversy and Bubbles
Industry insiders commented that ChatGPT is to the AI industry, just like the birth of the iPhone 4 is to the mobile Internet. With the advent of the new era, the first to be subverted is Google. But will ChatGPT replace search engines? There is still huge controversy in the industry.
The CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that ChatGPT optimizes the matching accuracy between question and answer generation, and the user experience is much better than traditional search engines, but the series of shortcomings behind it hinder the possible replacement of traditional search engines in the short term.
“First, due to model training methods, it is difficult to update data in real time; second, the cost of a single search is too high, and the cost of generating a piece of information is estimated to be about 1.3 cents, which is 3 to 4 times that of traditional search engines; third, statistics The content generated by the model is mixed, making it difficult for users to distinguish.” CITIC Securities Research Report mentioned.
First of all, the cost of ChatGPT is high. It is reported that API calling is one of OpenAI’s business models. The price of one picture call is 0.016~0.02 US dollars, and the language model call is 0.0004~0.02 US dollars for 1K tokens (about 750 words). These computational costs can skyrocket into the millions of dollars as usage scales.
Some analysts say that OpenAI invests 1 cent for every reply to ChatGPT. In December last year, Sam Altman responded to Musk’s question on cost on Twitter, “ChatGPT spends about a few cents per conversation.” According to the US “Fortune” magazine, in 2022, OpenAI The company’s net loss totaled $545 million.
Li Di, CEO of Xiaoice, told “Deep Web”: “The amount of conversations and interactions currently supported by Xiaoice’s framework can reach the amount of conversations and interactions of 14 human beings in one day. If ChatGPT is used, the daily cost will be as high as 300 million yuan. The annual cost will exceed 100 billion yuan. For productization, even if the cost is reduced by 10 times, this business model cannot be established, because this cost has no advantage compared with human beings.”
On February 5th, Caitongzheng released the article “ChatGPT Test: Improving External Beauty, Enhancing Inner Confidence—Medical Cosmetology Revolution”. US Industry Research Report.
Caitong Securities pointed out that from the results, ChatGPT has a relatively high level in terms of text expression and title writing, but the report formed by this direct generation + translation mode still has the following problems: There are obvious errors in punctuation and terminology ;Secondly, the source and reliability of the quoted data cannot be known; in addition, the meaning of some complex sentences is not clear after translation.
Second, ChatGPT is currently not a channel for knowledge acquisition.
Li Zhifei, founder of Mobvoun, said that ChatGPT still faces problems and challenges in terms of technology and business, ethics and regulations.
Li Zhifei believes, “For example, ChatGPT itself is not based on the real basic database and knowledge structure, cannot be updated in real time, and does not have certain logical reasoning rules, so many questions will be made out of nothing, fabricated or fabricated answers. At the technical level, ChatGPT still has many There is room for improvement and optimization. ChatGPT is still just a ‘toy’ at present, and it is far from becoming a real ‘tool’, and it needs to further explore the commercialization path.”
“After a large number of tests, we found that although the accuracy of ChatGPT’s answering questions has improved, if the questions asked are vague or contain some wrong information, the model may generate complete errors in a ‘serious’ tone or even out of thin air. Fabricated answers. The mix of true and false answers will cause serious trouble for users when they need to seek answers to professional questions, which is also a common problem in large language models at present.” CITIC Securities Research Report mentioned.
In Li Di’s view, “ChatGPT is not seeking to provide accurate knowledge, but more like a certain type of behavior pattern optimization system”, not a serious knowledge system.
Third, ChatGPT has disadvantages such as cheating and cheating.
The British journal Nature has announced that it will no longer support papers that list AI tools as authors. Guo Yingjian, deputy dean of the Capital Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, wrote, “Although people have been talking about the arrival of the AI era a few years ago, when ChatGPT hit us like a tsunami, the academic community basically responded hastily. He pointed out that whether to ban ChatGPT really became a question that people need to face.
In addition, Meta chief scientist and Turing Award winner Yang Likun (Yann LeCun) said that in terms of underlying technology, ChatGPT is not particularly innovative. The reason why it is regarded as a “revolutionary product” by the public, Yann LeCun believes that it is mainly because it is well designed and well combined at the product level. He believes that ChatGPT’s grasp of reality is very superficial.
Recently, Yang Likun said in a small online gathering of media and executives, “Compared with other laboratories, OpenAI has not made any special progress. Transformer is an invention of Google, and the work of this type of language project can be traced back decades. “. The “T” (Transformer) in GPT is built by OpenAI on the basis of Google’s Transformer language model framework.
Even so, many institutions are still optimistic about the future of ChatGPT and its AIGC track.
“Just as mobile devices unleashed new types of applications with new capabilities such as GPS, cameras, and network connectivity, we expect these large models to spark a new wave of AIGC applications. Just as the mobile Internet was opened up by some killer apps a decade ago Just as the market has disappeared, AIGC’s killer app will also appear, and the race has begun.” Songya Huang and Pat Grady, two partners of Sequoia America, predicted this in an article published last year.
An entrepreneur in the AI field said, “There are too many bubbles about ChatGPT now. It is estimated that a bunch of similar products for ChatGPT will spring up in the first half of this year in China. These people may have done AIGC last year, and they may have been in the currency circle a few years ago. of.”
In the past, 5G, autonomous driving, and Metaverse have all been sought after by capital. Today, 5G super applications have not yet been born, autonomous driving is still being explored at the L4 level (highly autonomous driving), and the once dazzling halo of the metaverse has been somewhat dimmed. Bill Gates said, “ChatGPT gave us a glimpse of the future”, but how far is this future?
Author of this article: Ye Zhen, source: Tencent Shenwang, original title: “ChatGPT set off a global capital frenzy: it created as many bubbles as stunning｜Deepnet”
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