China Galaxy maintains the recommendation rating of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry: the sow production capacity continues to be reduced and the layout is at this moment – ​​yqqlm

　　China GalaxyPublished on February 14thResearch reportSaid: Maintain the recommendation rating of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry.

After the festival, the price of pigs continued to drop, and self-breeding and self-raising suffered deep losses: According to news data, the average price of live pigs in 22 provinces and cities in my country on February 11, 2022 was 13.96 yuan/kg, a month-on-week -0.07%; Since the bottom was bottomed in October, it continued to rebound until the end of November, with a rebound rate of 67%. A continuous downward trend started in early December. In terms of profit, the average monthly profit of self-propagation and self-support from November to December in 2021 was positive, and in January of 2022, it turned from positive to negative, and the industry loss in January reached 249 yuan/head. The overall decline continued after the Lunar New Year. On February 11, the profits of my country’s self-propagating and self-raising piglets and outsourcing piglets were -336.70 yuan/head and 2.44 yuan/head, respectively. The former continued to increase losses, while the latter maintained a breakeven. From the perspective of production capacity, Yongyi data statistics believe that the inventory of reproductive sows in January 22 is -1.6% month-on-month, maintaining a downward trend and continuing to reduce production capacity. From the perspective of breeding losses, losses will lead to greater cash flow consumption and a high probability of reducing production capacity. Therefore, the interactive verification of production capacity and profit data is relatively reliable. In terms of production indicators, the number of new breeding sows, the average litter size and the survival rate of piglets in the farrowing room all showed a downward trend in January. Judging from our price tracking indicators, piglet and sow prices continue to drop. According to the news, on February 11, the prices of piglets and binary sows were 27.41 yuan/kg and 32.82 yuan/kg. Combined with the price of live pigs, the three are in the process of falling simultaneously, which is in line with our expectations, and the time for the second bottom is still ahead (we expect it to be in the middle of 22 years). From an investment point of view, before the second dip, we all think it is a high-quality layout opportunity, and we reiterate that the layout is now. Secondly, from the perspective of valuation, the current average market value of individual farming stocks is at a relatively low level in history, so we can seize the opportunity. Finally, look at the investment in the pig breeding sector with cyclical thinking and anticipatory thinking.

The price of yellow-feather chicken is high, and the price of white-feather chicken remains stable: according to the data of Xinmu.com, the price of fast chicken and medium-speed chicken on February 11, 2022 was 7.50 yuan/kg and 7.94 yuan/kg, compared with last week -5.06%, -2.34%. During the Spring Festival, the national average price of yellow chicken exceeded 8 yuan, and the price was strong. Since November 21, the price of yellow feather chicken has fluctuated upwards, and the monthly average price has shown a steady upward trend. The overall price is at a high level. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to relevant stocks. In terms of white feather chicken, on February 11, 2022, the prices of white feather broiler and broiler chick in the main producing area were 7.99 yuan/kg and 1.82 yuan/feather respectively, and the chain ratio remained unchanged.

Agriculture sector outperformsCSI 300Index 4.44pct: This week’s agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector +5.26%, the same periodThe Shanghai Composite Index+3.02%, the CSI 300 rose 0.82%. The three best-performing sectors in agriculture are livestock and poultry farming, planting and animal health care, with +8.23%, +4.29%, and +3.83%, respectively.

Investment suggestion: Continue to emphasize the allocation of the pig breeding sector, and individual stocks are recommended to pay attentionMuyuan shares、Aonong Bio、Tang Ren Shen、Tiankang Biology、Wen’s shares、new HopeWait.

Risk warning: the risk of animal epidemics; the risk that the slaughter of live pigs does not meet expectations, etc.

(Article source: Daily Economic News)

Article source: Daily Economic News

Responsible editor: 92

Original title: China Galaxy maintains the recommendation rating of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry: the production capacity of sows continues to decrease, and the layout is at this moment