Poor price transmission will still have an impact on enterprises.
[EpochTimesSeptember92021](Epoch Times reporter Liu Yi comprehensive report) On September 9, the National Bureau of Statistics of the Communist Party of China released the national CPI (Consumer Price Index) and PPI (Ex-factory Price Index of Industrial Producers) in August. )data. PPI rose by 9.5% year-on-year, and the rate of increase further expanded and hit a 13-year high; from the perspective of CPI, the national consumer price rose by 0.8% year-on-year. The scissors gap between PPI and CPI reached 8.7 percentage points, a new high since the data.
Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that the CPI rose 0.1% month-on-month in August, and the median value of the Reuters survey estimated that it rose 0.5%; the PPI rose 0.7% month-on-month. The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose 1.2% year-on-year, and the increase was 0.1 percentage point lower than the previous month.
According to Dong Lijuan, a senior statistician in the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, from the perspective of the CPI year-on-year, the decline in food prices affected the CPI drop by about 0.77 percentage points, of which the price of pork fell by 44.9%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; among non-food, industrial consumer goods The price increase dropped by 0.3 percentage points, of which the prices of gasoline and diesel rose by 22.7% and 25.2%, respectively, and the growth rates both fell.
Wang Jingwen, a senior researcher at Pangu Think Tank, believes that since August, the impact of the flood has subsided, but the impact of the plague is still there. China’s economic marginal slowdown, but the PPI continues to rise, and the trend of “quasi-stagflation” has intensified.
According to Reuters, pork prices are bottoming out, but with the weakening of the plague interference, analysts believe that it may lead to repairs in service prices, and the rebound in demand will also drive down the drag on pig prices, thereby gradually boosting CPI inflation expectations.
Wang Jun, chief economist of Centaline Bank, said: “On the whole, terminal prices have basically remained stable, and will continue to rise slightly as food prices stabilize and rebound and consumption becomes prosperous.”
Regarding the continued high level of PPI, Wang Jingwen said that although the authorities have introduced a series of measures to ensure supply and price stabilization, as global commodity prices continue to rise, the prices of upstream means of production continue to rise, which in turn promotes a continuous rebound in PPI. Due to the low base in September and October last year, the PPI may rise inertially in the next two months, and it will not peak until the end of the year.
According to Ji Chunhua, senior vice president of the International Research Department of Zhongtai Finance, the structural factors of supply and demand make PPI continue to run at a high level year-on-year, and this situation may continue in the short term.
Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, analyzed that international oil prices and non-ferrous metal prices are unlikely to fall sharply. At the same time, under the background of limited coal production and superimposed winter coal consumption peaks, the prices of coking coal, coke and thermal coal in the short term It is difficult to go down sharply. In addition, although the price of iron ore has fallen, the prices of coking coal and coke are at a high level, and it is expected that the price of rebar is unlikely to fall sharply.
Wang Jun also believes: “The pattern of industrial product inflation is still strengthening rather than easing.” The price of subsequent industrial products will most likely remain high. If China’s economic growth continues to decline significantly in the third and fourth quarters, the atypical “stagflation” pattern in the second half of this year will be reconfirmed, which will bring greater uncertainty to the stability and looseness of subsequent monetary policy.
What makes the economic circle more concerned is that the scissors gap between PPI and CPI in August reached 8.7 percentage points, a new high since the data. The PPI and CPI scissors gap continues to widen, and monetary policy is facing a dilemma.
Wen Bin, the chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said that from the structural analysis, it can be found that the transmission of PPI to CPI is not smooth. In the next stage, rising raw material prices and poor price transmission will still have an impact on enterprises.
Wu Chaoming believes that the possibility of a RRR cut during the year is expected to be high: First, the impact of the plague and floods will increase the downward pressure on the economy. At the same time, the inventory cycle is likely to enter the second half. The cyclical force is in the downward phase. The two superimposed and resonated. , Monetary policy needs to shift from being prudent and neutral to being prudent and loose, and increasing liquidity’s support for the real economy; second, the mid-term loan facility (MLF) maturity scale is relatively large during the year, and hedging measures are needed.
However, the CITIC Securities Research Report believes that in terms of inflation, the overall pressure is not small, the scissors gap is still large, further loosening of monetary policy is constrained, and the probability of interest rate cuts is small.
Editor in charge: Gao Jing
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