On the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, A shares drove higher and lowered. The Shanghai Stock Exchange’s highest was 3614 and the lowest was 3587. It fluctuated and weakened in the afternoon, and finally closed at the second low of 3589, completely erasing the gains on Thursday, and only the GEM on that day. Xiaohong closed up, the two cities’ transaction volume was significantly higher (1121.1 billion, enlarged by 11.9%), showing a trend of heavy volume decline. The Shanghai Stock Exchange has formed a top divergence structure in 60 minutes. The market went out of this state on the last trading day before the Dragon Boat Festival, does it mean The “Dragon Boat Festival” that has often appeared in previous years is coming again? How the market will go after the holiday has become a big suspense again.
This week, the three major A-share indexes showed a decline and rebounded. On Thursday, they went out of high volume and rose. From the time-sharing pattern, there has been a 60-minute 5-wave rise. However, because it has not surpassed the previous high of 3629, it is still unable to It is confirmed that the small five-wave rebound has been established, and today the market has fallen back to yesterday’s position. It has returned to the consolidation platform of more than ten days and continued to maintain its sideways momentum. For the time being, it can still be regarded as a time-sharing four-wave adjustment.
Yesterday’s heavy volume rose, and today the market has fallen again. This should be related to the Dragon Boat Festival holiday. There will be no market conditions before each small holiday, and safe-haven funds will generally take the initiative to lighten their positions due to concerns about sudden uncertainties during the holiday. Today, the outflow of northbound funds accelerated in late trading, and net sales exceeded 3 billion yuan throughout the day.
Although there was a heavy decline in volume today, the trading volume remained at trillions for two consecutive days, indicating that the market is still hot and the market will not end soon. Yesterday, the Shanghai Stock Exchange took the lead in passivation in 60 minutes, and the 90-120 minutes and the daily line have not yet. Today This fall on the Shanghai Composite has formed a top structure within 60 minutes, and the 60-minute period is not too large, and there is limited room for downward adjustment.
In previous years, every Dragon Boat Festival, old stockholders were worried that the market would have a “Dragon Boat Festival”, that is, there would often be a wave of obvious drops around the Dragon Boat Festival. Today’s decline cannot be said to be “Dragon Boat Festival”, but just a pre-holiday hedging. Due to emotions, after the holiday, you may also explore 3580-3550 and then pull up, and then go out of the small 5 wave rise, the real stage high point should be after the 5 wave rise.
Post-holiday operation: the real stage high should be after the 5 wave rise, pay close attention to the high-point sell signal
Take a look at the current trend of the market. After the heavy volume broke through the channel on May 25, it has been doing sideways in the small areas with only a few points. It has been “horizontal” for 13 trading days today. Generally speaking , If it rose before the sideways, there is a high probability that it will continue to rush upward after the sideways, because the sideways belong to the adjustment cycle, and the horizontal but not falling means that this is a strong consolidation.
So you don’t have to worry about a big fall after the adjustment of this small wave. If you want to fall, you have to wait for the small 5 wave to finish, which means that this wave of rising cycle is over. What you really need to be careful about is after the 5 wave rises. 90-120 minutes, and the appearance of a top structure on the daily line, will trigger a large-scale, multi-cycle divergence and co-shock, triggering a significant wave of market adjustment, but the intensity should be less than the wave of decline after the Spring Festival.
Therefore, if the market returns to 3580-3550 and below (3536) after the holiday, you can still continue to buy low in batches, but note that the rhythm of the high and low rotations of individual stocks may change significantly, and the continuous rise before the Dragon Boat Festival Individual stocks may fall and adjust to 0.
In each round of market, low-priced stocks will never be absent! Because there is enough space above to play! In January, Lao Qiu’s layout of China Central Place Logistics increased by 71.96%+, Hanbell Precision Machinery (002158) increased by 62%+, in February, Yuntu Holdings increased by 20%+, and in March, Sinoma International increased by 32%. %+, Baoguang, which was deployed in April, made a 40%+ profit earlier than expected. They all ate a wave of big meat, which is enough to prove Lao Qiu’s strength!
This week, Lao Qiu selected a potential leading stock, as the iron powder compound interest, the iron powder club entrance emblem Xin loses KFC first and then loses (600519). Number nine together, and then said to me: Big dark horse, just fine 1) The leading company has strong attributes and possesses the core technology of the whole industry! Crowned the first prize of scientific and technological progress! 2) Central enterprises are responsible, policy support, asset acquisition, The minimum valuation is more than 30 billion, and it is currently only 7.6 billion! 3) The company has many major profit sources and has achieved absolute competitive advantage and stable cash flow!
4) Bottom stacking + chip height concentration + daily limit replication model, combination of bank and tour, weekly break through the platform, the shape of the dragon head up, and the main high-control board. 5) Oversold rebounded by more than 85%, doubling expectations, but we only do short-to-medium-term.
On the contrary, the pre-holiday mainstream hotspot varieties that have fallen continuously before the holiday may have opportunities to rebound. Therefore, these low-level mainstream hot stocks should be the main targets of chasing down and buying in batches after the holiday. , Investors should begin to prepare to lighten their positions in batches at 3629-3656 and above, especially once the 90-120 minutes or even the top structure of the daily line is a signal of phased highs, they should consider reducing their positions in time and actively shrink the line of defense.
Post-holiday sector outlook:
Steel:
In the second half of this week, it was discovered that there was capital flowing into the steel sector, and steel belongs to the long-term logic. After the previous adjustments, the steel sector is likely to become a trend. The main logic of steel is still supply-side reform in the context of carbon neutrality. The extensive production capacity expansion cycle in the past has ended.
With the recovery of the global economy, demand in the steel industry may quickly recover or even exceed the level before the epidemic, and there may be a gap in supply and demand in the steel industry in 2021. In terms of technical trends, the sector has reached the 20-day moving average. Later, if you can hold the moving average, there is a probability that it will continue to hit new highs.
Medical beauty:
On the news, the National Health Commission will work with multiple departments to carry out special rectification work against illegal medical beauty services. Due to the high gross profit of the medical beauty industry, the industry has developed rapidly. The current industry structure is scattered and chaotic, with few legal institutions. Special rectification of illegal medical beauty institutions can clear up the market structure and help leading companies to get more shares, which is definitely good for the entire industry.
However, the initial capital speculation has accelerated, and the recent large-scale adjustments have occurred in the sector after the acceleration of the group. From a longer-term perspective, there is a high probability that the medical beauty track can get out of the trend. At the moment, the trend of the plate fell after the break, and wait patiently for the fall, at least waiting for signs of divergence from the falling line for 30 minutes.
Photovoltaic:
Funds began to buy photovoltaic panels this Thursday and Friday, and the trend of kanban blocks has reached a new high. In the context of carbon neutrality, photovoltaics, as the most mature new energy path for my country’s technological development, naturally opens a new round of development opportunities. However, the rising prices of upstream raw materials such as silicon materials and wafers in the development of the industry have many negative effects on the downstream. Among them, downstream component companies directly point to the phenomenon of hoarding silicon materials by some upstream companies.
If the short-term signs of man-made shortages can be improved, and downstream operations resume to normal levels, it will once again drive the industry into a healthy development. Among them, the inverter field that benefits from energy storage and the integrated enterprises that benefit from the growth of installed capacity will again become the winners in the future.
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