Looking ahead, we believe that the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. Combined with the recent introduction of local growth stabilization policies, we believe that after some forward-looking economic indicators gradually improve, the market may reverse the downturn and gradually turn positive, focusing onBankCredit, Social financing, Development and Reform Commission project approval, financial support boosting, housing-related policies, etc.
In the medium term, the growth and policy cycles of China and foreign countries are reversed and China is relatively favorable. With support from liquidity and valuation, and structural trends bring investment opportunities, we believe that A-shares will eventually be “surprising but not dangerous.”
In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” will still be the main line of the market in the near future, and the growth style of manufacturing may continue to be suppressed, and we still need to wait for the opportunity.
Industry configurationsuggestion:Continue to “steady growth” as the main line, manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
1) The marginal changes in policies or the areas that are potentially supportive, including infrastructure and real estate stable demand-related industrial chains (construction, building materials, home appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumer support areas,BrokerageWait;
2) Mid-and-downstream consumption that has been adjusted this year, valuation is not high, and mid-to-long-term prospects is still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industrial home furnishings, automobiles and parts, the Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries ,food and drink, Medicine, aviation hotels, etc.;
3) The short-term share prices of the manufacturing growth sectors that rose sharply last year may be depressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardwaresemiconductorWait, the potential turnaround depends on another change in market style, the potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
The aforementioned three directions may overlap slightly. The first direction is more phased and requires more attention to the pace of policy.
Market backGu：The growth style is obviously fluctuating, “steady growth” is the bright spot, and market transactions are enlarged
In the first week of the year, domestic growth expectations have not yet improved, and overseasMidlandThe Chu Minutes implied that the shrinking balance sheet led to increased fluctuations in overseas assets and other factors, and the growth sector led the market to pull back.The Shanghai Composite IndexThe first week of the year fell by 1.7%, and the average daily turnover was significantly larger than before the holiday to over 1.2 trillion yuan. The northbound funding weekNet inflow6.2 billion yuan. In terms of style, the overall growth style represented by the new energy automobile industry chain has fallen sharply this week, and the overall blue-chip market is relatively resilient.CSI 300Weekly decrease of 2.4%,Growth Enterprise Market IndexAnd Kechuang 50 adjusted 6.8% and 6.6% respectively, and small and medium-cap stocks also began to make up for the decline. In terms of industries, industries related to stable growth have performed well, with household appliances, real estate, and construction ranking the top three; growth areas with large previous increases and higher valuations have a larger correction, defense and military industry, power equipment and new energy,Non-ferrous metalsAnd electronics has fallen more than 5% on a weekly basis.
Market outlook:Continue to focus on “steady growth”, manufacturing growth style is temporarily suppressed
In the “Steady Growth” Will Become the New Main Line of the Market” released on December 7th, we pointed out that “”Steady Growth” is expected to become the new main line of trading in the next 3-6 months, and the growth style of A-shares with a large increase in the previous period may be Temporarily depressed”. Last week, we continued to remind our attention to “whether there will be a short-term style change due to institutional swaps at the beginning of the year”. The recent growth sector has noticed a significant correction, and the backward sectors have outperformed in stages last year, and the “steady growth” field has performed well. We believe that the decline in this growth style at the beginning of the year may be due to relatively high valuations, expectations and institutional positions and lack of catalysts in the short term. After the “steady growth” transaction began to heat up, some funds were adjusted in the beginning of the year.Some investors are still worried: 1) The stabilization policy is facing more constraints, the market’s worries are not as strong as expected or the timing is late, the domestic economic growth is still plagued by the epidemic, and the real estate is still facing downward pressure; 2) Some investors are still worried There are regulatory or policy adjustments with insufficient market expectations; 3)MidlandStorecurrencyPolicy tightening and U.S. debtinterest rateWorries about a fast upward move.Looking ahead, we believe that the market does not need to be overly pessimistic. Combined with the recent introduction of local growth stabilization policies, we believe that after some forward-looking economic indicators gradually improve, the market may reverse the downturn and gradually turn positive, focusing onBankCredit, social financing, development and reform commission project approval, financial support and strengthening, housing-related policies, etc. In the medium term, the growth and policy cycles of China and foreign countries are reversed and China is relatively favorable. With support from liquidity and valuation, and structural trends bring investment opportunities, we believe that A-shares will eventually be “surprising but not dangerous.” In terms of style, we believe that “steady growth” will still be the main line of the market in the near future, and the growth style of manufacturing may continue to be suppressed, and we still need to wait for the opportunity.Pay attention to the following developments in the near future:
1) “Steady growth” policy continues to be implemented.Recently, infrastructure projects in various regions have accelerated their efforts. The media reported that major projects in various provinces and cities started from January 4 to 6, and the announced total investment in major projects has exceeded 3 trillion yuan. At the same time, hot cities represented by Beijing and Shanghai have recently been used. Housing mortgages are speeding up significantly, Guangzhou recently lowered housing mortgage loansinterest rateAt 20bp, housing loans in November increased by 8.4% year-on-year. The marginal loose credit environment may help the real estate market to recover.
2) The Securities Regulatory Commission issued a number of rule amendments:The first is that the China Securities Regulatory Commission revised and formulated the rules for the transfer of listed companies on the Beijing Stock Exchange. Companies that have been listed on the Beijing Stock Exchange for one year (the listing time of the selected layer can be combined and included) and meet the requirements for listing in the transfer sector can apply Transfer to the Science and Technology Innovation Board or ChiNext; Secondly, for the spin-off and listing, the “Listed Company Spin-off Rules” further clarify that “if the main business or assets of the subsidiary are the main business or assets of the listed company when it is listed in the initial public offering, Not to split the subsidiary’s listing”. The revision of this rule will help to regulate listed companies’ fundraising and promote their focus on their original main business;Stock repurchaseThe rules are coordinated and matched, and it is clear that “employee stock ownership plans or equity incentives”, “issued by listed companiesConvertible bondConvert to stock” and “maintain company value andshareholderIn the end, the China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to introduce a market maker mechanism on the Sci-tech Innovation Board and set ten securities firm access requirements including net capital and Class A ratings, which will help top securities firms to further enrich their business scope. Recently, the People’s Daily interviewed Yi Huiman, chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, saying that the China Securities Regulatory Commission is stepping up to formulate a market-wide registration reform plan.
3) Epidemic and overseas aspects:The overseas Omicron virus has spread rapidly, and the number of newly diagnosed new crown cases worldwide has risen sharply to more than 2 million. However, the decline in hospitalization rates and the peak and fall of the epidemic in South Africa have made the market relatively active in the epidemic; the local epidemic in China is still sporadic , The epidemic situation in Henan and other regions is worthy of attention;MidlandThe minutes of the December FOMC meeting of the FOMC meeting to discuss the shrinking of the balance sheet triggered investors’ concerns about the tightening of monetary policy.NasdaqThe index fell 4.5% this week, the biggest drop in nearly 10 months.
RowIndustry advice：Continue to “steady growth” as the main line, manufacturing growth is waiting for a turnaround
Specifically, we should focus on three directions at present:
1) The areas where policy marginal changes or efforts are potentially supported, including infrastructure and real estate stable demand-related industrial chains (construction, building materials, home appliances, home furnishings, real estate, etc.), potential consumer support areas, brokerages, etc.;
2) Mid-and-downstream consumption that has been adjusted this year, valuation is not high, and mid-to-long-term prospects is still clear, choose stocks from the bottom up, including home appliances, light industrial home furnishings, automobiles and parts, the Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fisheries ,food and drink, Medicine, aviation hotels, etc.;
3) The short-term share prices of the manufacturing growth sectors that rose sharply last year may be depressed, including new energy vehicles, new energy and technology hardwaresemiconductorWait, the potential turnaround depends on another change in market style, the potential time point may be at the end of the first quarter and the beginning of the second quarter.
The aforementioned three directions may overlap slightly. The first direction is more phased and requires more attention to the pace of policy.
Recent attention:1) December economic and financial data; 2) specific measures for stabilizing growth policies and whether they can meet or exceed expectations; 3) the progress of local domestic epidemics and overseas variant viruses; 4) the pace of US policy withdrawal and inflation data; 5) overseas supervision Wait.
(Source: CICC Strategy)
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