CITIC Construction InvestmentThe strategy issued a statement saying that after maintaining the previous “golden pit”, Xu Xutuzhi’s judgment. On the one hand, we can no longer be pessimistic in terms of strategy, and we must gradually turn to optimism; on the other hand, the process of improving the main contradictions inside and outside the market is likely to have certain repetitions, and it still needs to be patiently grounded.For now: the domestic epidemic has improved, but it is still complicated and severe, and the implementation of stable growth policies and economic recovery still needs to wait; overseas inflationary pressures remain unabated, and U.S. stocks are rocking U.S. bondsinterest rateOn the rise, the devaluation of the RMB brings pressure and challenges. Investors are advised to be patient, and should take it slow and take the low-level layout as the basic principle. Focus on: (post-epidemic recovery) express delivery, food, building materials, hotels, auto zero, (steady growth) infrastructure/real estate, (high prosperity growth) military industry, photovoltaics, etc.
The original text is as follows
CITIC Construction InvestmentStrategy Chen Guo: Be patient and wait for an opportunity
We maintain the previous judgment: after the “golden pit”, Xu Xutuzhi’s judgment.On the one hand, we can no longer be pessimistic in terms of strategy, and we must gradually turn to optimism; on the other hand, the process of improving the main contradictions inside and outside the market is likely to have certain repetitions, and it still needs to be patiently grounded.For now: the domestic epidemic has improved, but it is still complicated and severe, and the implementation of stable growth policies and economic recovery still needs to wait; overseas inflationary pressures remain unabated, and U.S. stocks are rocking U.S. bondsinterest rateOn the rise, the devaluation of the RMB brings pressure and challenges. Investors are advised to be patient, and should take it slow and take the low-level layout as the basic principle. Focus on: (post-epidemic recovery) express delivery, food, building materials, hotels, auto zero, (steady growth) infrastructure/real estate, (high prosperity growth) military industry, photovoltaics, etc.
The domestic epidemic has improved, but it is still complicated and severe
The epidemic prevention policy is clear: adhere to the idea of dynamic clearing and epidemic prevention, and adjust prevention and control measures according to the time and situation.On April 29, the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China analyzed and studied the current economic situation and economic work, and made clear requirements: the epidemic must be prevented, the economy must be stabilized, and development must be safe. Epidemic prevention surpassed economic stabilization and ranked first.The overall epidemic situation across the country shows a continuous downward trend. The epidemic situation in Shanghai has entered a period of narrowing while the epidemic is stable and improving. The number of new cases in Beijing has been in a plateau period for several consecutive days.
U.S. stocks slammed U.S. bond interest rates up, and the RMB exchange rate was under pressure to adjust
This week, the U.S. stock market has experienced “back-to-back” fluctuations, and U.S. bond interest rates have risen rapidly. We believe that the pressure on the economy will gradually appear in the next year after the water is collected. For overseas markets, we continue to maintain that U.S. inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter, which is also the time when the Fed is under the most pressure to raise interest rates. Considering the current strength of the U.S. economy and high inflation, the contractionary pressure may continue until inflation peaks and falls, and U.S. bond interest rates are likely to remain high in the next few months. Historically, the RMB exchange rate has lagged the Sino-US interest rate gap by about 6 months. At present, there is a large deviation. The early appreciation of the RMB mainly relies on strong exports as support.The global recovery economic cycle is dislocated, domestic fundamentals are superimposed on the recent epidemic disturbance, and short-term exports may also weaken. In the case of an inverted Sino-US interest rate differential, the RMB exchange rate is under pressure to adjust, and the “U-shaped bottom” still requires patience.
Low-level layout, epidemic recovery and stable growth
If various industries return to normal operating levels after the recovery of the epidemic, we need to prefer: 1) valuation flexibility; 2) fundamental recovery flexibility; 3) products with certainty of fundamental recovery.
Comprehensive consideration, it is recommended to pay attention to the layout of the epidemic improvement varieties: express delivery, food, building materials, hotels, and auto zero. And the direction of infrastructure/real estate that will grow steadily after the epidemic improves.
risk warning:The economic downturn exceeds expectations, geopolitical risks, and repeated epidemics
(Article Source:securitiesTimes e company)