Home » CITIC Securities: Blue-chip proliferation promotes the “good start” market in the first quarter or the best time to participate in the year_ 东方 Fortune.com

CITIC Securities: Blue-chip proliferation promotes the “good start” market in the first quarter or the best time to participate in the year_ 东方 Fortune.com

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Policy synergy is gradually taking shape. It is expected that both economic stabilization and credit cycle recovery in January will be verified. After the new year, the influx of incremental funds and the active increase of stock funds are expected to open the “good start” market. It is expected after the blue chip market preview in the fourth quarter of last year. Will move towards proliferation, the best time to participate in the first quarter or the whole year. First of all, the policy in the first quarter is expected to move from a relay to a joint force. There are sufficient policy guarantees to stabilize the economy and stabilize the market. It is expected that in January, the bottoming-out trend of the economy in the fourth quarter will be verified. At the same time, the rebound in the credit cycle will also improve the market’s expectations for the future economy.Secondly, it is expectedFund issuanceThe “good start” will drive the influx of incremental funds. After the new year, the game behavior of stock funds decays and actively increases positions. The market begins to form a consensus on the market at the beginning of the year. Finally, under loose policies, moderate macroeconomics and market environment, the best time to participate in the first quarter or the whole year, the incremental capital structure style may be more diversified, and it is expected that the blue chip market will gradually spread in the industry and style dimensions. In terms of configuration, it is recommended to continue to actively participate in the “good start” market around the “three lows”.

  Policy synergy is gradually taking shape and is expected in JanuaryBoth the economic stabilization and the recovery of the credit cycle will be verified

  1) In the first quarter, the policy is expected to shift from relay to joint force, and there are sufficient policy guarantees for stabilizing the economy and stabilizing the market.As various ministries and commissions have successively studied and introduced policies after the Central Economic Work Conference, it is expected that starting from the first quarter of 2022, the policy level will gradually see synergy. From the perspective of stabilizing the economy, new infrastructure, stabilizing real estate, and promoting consumption are the three most important starting points. It is expected that in the new infrastructure sector, accelerating the construction of new power systems, industrial Internet and modern logistics systems around the goal of “dual carbon” will be the focus; the real estate sector “supporting without lifting” is the core policy keynote, and the developer level ensures that reasonable financing needs are met. Resident-level credit is appropriately relaxed to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers; in the consumer sector, we expect to accelerate the implementation of rural residents’ consumption upgrades, promote the replacement of optional durable goods such as household appliances and automobiles in rural areas, and expand the use of provident funds are all possible Policy initiatives. From the perspective of market stabilization, in the context of the promotion of a comprehensive registration system, the policy to prevent large fluctuations in the capital market has a higher priority. “Market stability, policy stability and expected stability” will become the main tone of the new year’s capital market-related policies. .

  2) It is expected that in January, the bottoming out and rebounding trend of the economy in the fourth quarter will be verified.We expect that the economic data for December 2021 and the fourth quarter of 2021 released in January will fully verify the warming trend of the economy in the fourth quarter relative to the third quarter.CITIC SecuritiesThe Macro Group of the Research Department believes that under the influence of “guaranteed supply and stable prices”, the predecessor of manufacturing production and operation, and the effect of rushing to work at the end of the year, DecemberIndustrial added valueThe growth rate is expected to continue to pick up; manufacturing investment remains high and infrastructure investment stabilizes. Domestic manufacturing investment in December is expected to continue the growth trend of more than 7% in a single month. It is expected that the whole yearInvestment in fixed assetsThe growth rate reached 5.1%; the improvement of automobile sales promoted a moderate rebound in overall consumption data. The nominal growth rate of consumption in December is expected to be 4.7%, and the trend of moderate recovery will continue in the future; under the background of strong overseas consumer spending demand and slow recovery of the global supply chain , Exports are still able to maintain strong growth, and it is expected that the monthly export growth rate in December will reach 21% year-on-year, which is basically the same as in November.

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  3) The rebound of the credit cycle improves market expectations for the future economy.CITIC SecuritiesThe Macro Group of the Research Department predicts that the growth rate of social financing will continue to pick up in December, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4% and a M2 growth rate of 8.7%. We expect that multiple factors will continue to accelerate credit expansion in the first quarter of 2022, confirming the bottom inflection point of the credit cycle in the fourth quarter of 2021. Firstly, it is expected that the local government special bonds will be issued in advance in the first quarter, continuing the rapid issuance pace since the third quarter of 2021; secondly, the placement of residential mortgage loans under the constraints of housing loan concentration management will show the seasonal characteristics of “high first and low late”. The first quarter will be the most accommodating period for mortgage loans in the whole year; thirdly, the first quarter is the peak of the maturity of offshore dollar debts of real estate development companies. Under the premise of keeping the bottom line of systemic risks, the probability of financial institutions will increase. Support for developers’ reasonable financing needs; finally, as the measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices take effect, the rapid recovery of demand for raw material replenishment of midstream industrial enterprises and the recovery of production will also drive the growth of new short-term loans for enterprises to rebound sharply.We expect some high frequencyResearchThe data will verify that the credit cycle has entered an expansion range in January, improving market expectations for future economic resilience.

  After the New Year’s Eve, it is expected that the influx of incremental funds will accelerate and the stock funds will actively increase positions to open the “good start” market

  1) ExpectedfundThe issuance of “good start” led to the influx of incremental funds.In December, newly issued public funds continued to pick up, and sales channels showed their strength. In terms of active equity products, as of December 30, active products issued a total of 70.6 billion yuan, a month-on-month +29.6%; passive equity products issued a total of 25.8 billion yuan, a month-on-month +45.5%. The average issuance scale of new products in the past 5 weeks has returned to the level when the subscription enthusiasm was high in the third quarter. The recent issuance scale of 1-year closed FOF products with low willingness to actively purchase in the past can also reach an average of about 1.5 billion yuan per unit. . In addition, public offering products that are being issued and to be released will be intensively established in January and will continue to bring incremental funds to the market. As of December 31, the total number of equity products that are in the issuance stage and that have been approved for issuance have reached 119, exceeding the monthly average of approximately +30% in the fourth quarter of 2021. The products being issued are dominated by managers whose scale is at the top of the industry. Among them, the assets under management of the managers corresponding to active equity products reached an average of 7.5 billion yuan in 3Q21, and there are many star fund managers with a scale of over 10 billion.According to the channel warm-up situation we have researched and understood, it is expected that after the new yearNew fundThe probability of showing a “good start” is very high.

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  2) After the new year, the game behavior of the stock funds decayed and actively increased positions, and the market began to form a consensus on the market at the beginning of the year.The root cause behind the market style disorder in December was the game process of lightening and adjusting the stock of funds. Regarding high-end products, institutional funds dare not continue to increase their positions. On the one hand, they are worried about the 2021 annual report and industry data that are not as expected. On the other hand, they are worried about possible game behavior in the fierce ranking competition at the end of the year. For low-end products, a large number of growth-oriented institutions “disdain” increasing positions, believing that the effect of stabilizing the economy has yet to be verified, and policies are difficult to stimulate on a large scale, and a round of valuation repairs by gaming is of little significance. We estimate that the positions of various active equity products in late December have generally decreased by 3 to 5 percentage points from the end of the third quarter; in addition, according to our channel research, the average position of small and medium-sized private equity products has also decreased by 2 percentage points in the past week. This is a cumulative decrease of 5 percentage points from the level at the end of September.Judging from historical experience, stock funds will usually resume entry in the first quarter of the following year after lightening their positions in the fourth quarter of the previous year.Equity fundsFor example, in the fourth quarter of 2005-2020, the average position was reduced by 3.3%, but the increase in position would resume by 4.6% in the first quarter of the following year.After the New Year’s Eve, under the expectation of a “good start”, the stock funds will most likely be actively deployed around 2022, the game will be reduced, and a consensus on the spring turmoil will gradually form. It is expectedthemeThe hype has cooled down, the blue-chip main line has heated up again, and the market has returned to the institutional market characteristics.

  After the preview of the blue chip market in the fourth quarter of last year, it is expected to beProliferation, the best time to participate in the first quarter or the whole year

  1) The best time to participate in the first quarter or the whole year under loose policies, moderate macroeconomics and market environment.The first quarter is the most accommodating period of the year’s policy environment. Growth stabilization measures have improved the expectations of domestic and overseas investors regarding China’s economic trends, and market stabilization measures have continued to increase investors’ appreciation of the steady rise of the capital market, and structural opportunities have been highlighted. expected. With the formation of policy synergy, the improvement of macro expectations and abundant market liquidity is expected to form a resonance, which is expected to greatly stimulate market risk appetite. At the level of investor behavior, the existing funds may be deployed in advance before the new funds enter the market. Judging from the current channel sales warm-up situation, the “good start” of the new fund has almost become a foregone conclusion. Considering that the concentrated opening period of the new fund in January is in February and March, no matter whether the stock funds planned to increase or new Incremental funds entering the market are the best timing for the layout. Once a consensus is formed, investors are likely to rush to rush the layout of the “good start” market in January.In contrast, in the second half of the year, internal inflation constraints and externalcurrencyUnder constraints, domestic macro policies are expected to gradually return to normal, focusing more on opportunities based on the relative prosperity of the industry. Therefore, overall, it is expected that the best time to participate in the first quarter or the whole year, and January will be the best time to enter the first quarter.

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  2) Incremental capital structure styles are more diversified, and it is expected that the blue chip market will gradually spread in the industry and style dimensions.Compared with the newly issued products in the third quarter of 2021, which mainly come from managers who specialize in the field of new energy, the styles of fund managers planned to be newly issued in January will be more diversified, and the style and characteristics of incremental funds will be richer. Among them, 33 celebrity fund managers will have about 10 of them in the third quarter of 2021. Most of the remaining 23 people have been based on “equilibrium value” in the past. Their heavy holdings in the third quarter are concentrated in pharmaceuticals, traditional midstream cycle manufacturing, and consumption. , Electronics and other sectors. From the perspective of its current publicly planned new product positioning, there are fewer “new energy” related labels, even some fund managers in the new energy sector in the third quarter emphasized the style positioning of new products more mixed configuration. In addition, considering the poor performance of new energy and other high-prosperity sectors in the fourth quarter of 2021, the game significantly intensified at the end of the fourth quarter, which to a certain extent reflects investors’ concerns about the annual report or the industry’s less than expected business climate. With the adjustment of valuation, some leading companies in sub-sectors have gradually entered the allocation range. Overall, we expect that the market in the first quarter will show the gradual spread of blue-chip market.

  3) Continue to actively participate around the “three lows”.From the perspective of industry configuration, we continue to recommend the “three lows”.However, as some industries realized the upside ahead of schedule in the fourth quarter, some industries that were originally high also experienced significant adjustments. We have also made corresponding adjustments to industries that meet the “three lows” standard, focusing on: the fundamental expectations are still low. Variety, focusing on midstream manufacturing that was suppressed by cost issues in the early stage, such asWhole carLithium batteryPhotovoltaic equipmentIn addition, some consumer industries represented by liquor in the fourth quarter have already fulfilled larger valuation repairs. In the first quarter of this year, it is recommended to pay attention to the fact that the fundamentals are still expected to be at a low level.duty freeandEntertainment content consumption; Valuation is still at a relatively low level, pay attention to the high quality of real estate credit risk expectations after mitigationDeveloperBuilding materialsandHomeEnterprises, after experiencing the impact of China’s concept stocksHong Kong Stock ConnectNetDragonhead, As well as those with the ability to develop new businesses such as new materialsFine ChemicalsEnterprises; high-prosperity products whose stock prices are relatively low after adjustment, such as those promoted by localization logicsemiconductorequipmentDedicated chip deviceas well asMilitary industry

  Risk factors

Global epidemics have repeated and vaccination has fallen short of expectations; frictions in the field of Sino-US technology trade have intensified; domestic economic recovery has fallen short of expectations; macro liquidity at home and abroad has tightened beyond expectations.

(Article Source:CITIC SecuritiesResearch)

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