CITIC Securities: It is expected that the trade balance will narrow marginally in the second half of the year, but it is still expected to achieve a high level of growth throughout the year – Teller Report
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CITIC Securities: It is expected that the trade balance will narrow marginally in the second half of the year, but it is still expected to achieve a high growth rate throughout the year
2022-08-07 20:48
Source: Securities Times Network
Author: Wang Huancheng
Securities Times Network
Wang Huancheng
2022-08-07 20:48
Securities Times Network News, CITIC Securities pointed out that the trade surplus in July was 101.27 billion US dollars, a year-on-year growth rate of 81.5%, and the cumulative growth rate from January to July this year was 61.6%. In the context of relatively strong overseas demand but a slowdown in domestic demand growth this year due to the impact of the epidemic, the growth of exports was significantly stronger than that of imports, thus showing a significant year-on-year increase in the trade balance. Referring to the feedback from overseas domestic production boom and export orders of some companies, we believe that exports may show a marginal slowdown from the end of the third quarter. Although domestic demand is expected to improve significantly in the second half of the year, the decline in exports will also lead to some raw materials and semi-finished products. On the whole, it is expected that the trade balance will narrow marginally in the second half of the year, but it is still expected to achieve a relatively high growth rate for the whole year, which is expected to rise further than the growth rate of 29% in 2021, which will have a negative impact on economic growth. positive contribution.
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CITIC Securities: It is expected that the trade balance will narrow marginally in the second half of the year, but it is still expected to achieve a high growth rate throughout the year
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Wang Huancheng
2022-08-07