Huaan Futures
On June 23, domestic commodity futures closed mixed, and the black department rebounded in the afternoon.soybean mealrapeseed meal,Shanghai Nickelfell more than 5%, Dou Er fell more than 4%, soybean oil,palmvegetable oil,cottonethylene glycol fell by more than 3%;cokerose more than 3%,coking coal、iron orerose more than 2%.
【Precious Metals】: Overnight, Shanghai Gold and Comex Gold closed up slightly, while European and American stock indexes and crude oil and other industrial products all closed down, mainly because the market’s worries about recession strengthened again. On the news side, a senior Federal Reserve researcher released a working paper predicting a recession, sparking market concerns. The paper said the U.S. unemployment rate will rise sharply in the next two years. Powell continued to maintain hawkish remarks at the hearing, arguing that the U.S. economy is still strong and can withstand monetary policy tightening, and the current rate hike is appropriate. The Fed’s Harker said that the neutral rate of 2.5% needs to be reached quickly; 75 basis points of interest rate hikes will help to reach the neutral rate, and interest rates should exceed 3% by the end of the year; not ready to decide whether to raise interest rates by 75 in July The basis point is still 50 basis points. Inflation could still be above 5% next year before falling to 2.5% the year after; Evans said a 75bps rate hike in July would be in line with persistent concerns that inflation is not slowing; sees no need for a 100bps hike ; Maybe the data will show that the July meeting can raise interest rates by 50 basis points.We think drivegold priceThe main logic is still a recession in the later period. In the follow-up, it is necessary to continue to track the impetus of the depletion of the United States, and test the logic of buying gold based on the recession.[Investment strategy]: Trending investors try to build more positions on dips in batches; go long on the gold-copper ratio
【black metal】: In the news, the average cost of hot metal without tax for mainstream sample steel mills in Tangshan this week was 3,369 yuan/ton, and the average billet cost including tax was 4,334 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 174 yuan/ton. Compared with the ex-factory price of billet of 3920 yuan / ton, the average gross profit of steel mills is -414 yuan / ton, down by 286 yuan / ton on a week-on-week basis. According to statistics this week, 47 section steel production lines of 35 billet-adjusted section steel enterprises in Tangshan area have actually started 16 lines, and the operating rate is 34.04%, an increase of 10.64% from last week; the capacity utilization rate is 25.81%, a decrease of 2.69% from last week, The inventory of finished products was 757,000 tons, an increase of 9.63% from last week, and the inventory of steel billets in the factory was 252,500 tons, a decrease of 27.13% from last week.【Investment strategy】: Partial short positions can be settled。
【starchcorn】: In terms of external disk, the weather is favorable for the growth of corn, and the US corn is running weakly. Since the 22nd, China Grain Reserves will put corn on a large scale and intensively to suppress the price of corn. However, in the context of the gap between domestic corn production and demand, the downstream demand has gradually recovered, and the market is optimistic about the medium and long-term corn market. Recently, I have paid attention to the impact of domestic dumping and storage policies, changes in downstream demand and international grain trade policies on the corn market. In terms of corn starch: domestic corn starch spot prices have been steady with some declines. At present, corn starch companies have a price attitude, but market consumption is weak. 【Investment Strategy】: The corn C2209 contract pays attention to the opportunity to do more on dips when the price pulls back. Cornstarch: Pay attention to arbitrage opportunities of empty CS2209 and more C2207.
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