EEmmanuel Macron’s controversial statements on European sovereignty are only the latest evidence of an estrangement between Germany and France, which is also caused by growing economic differences. According to figures from Eurostat, in 2022 French economic output was 2,643 billion euros, while Germany was 3,867 billion euros. This considerable difference can be explained not only by the larger population in Germany, but also by a higher German per capita income.
If you are looking for reasons for this development, you will find them not least on the job market for many years. The employment rate is significantly higher in Germany; This applies not least to the generation of baby boomers who are gradually retiring. The pension reform that France’s President has just enforced to his detriment has been needed for many years.
France is home to a considerable number of impressive companies, but this has not prevented a deindustrialization that has only been talked about in Germany so far. Attempts by the state to revitalize industry with money at the same time, to support a green transformation of the economy and to pacify the growing social conflicts have put a heavy strain on state finances. The debt ratio, which is the share of government debt in economic output, is 113 percent in France compared to 69 percent in Germany. Macron’s attempts to set up debt-financed European projects in the name of sovereignty are also intended to finance projects in France that the nation state can no longer handle.
Sober reconciliation of interests
Concern about France’s economic prospects has been audible in Berlin for years. The German interest was usually more in securing the internal market in the interest of domestic companies than in participating in common ambitions. They were accepted when they seemed necessary for political reasons – as long as the liability risks arising from European projects did not endanger the German credit rating. In this respect too, Franco-German relations are characterized more by a sober reconciliation of interests than official communication would suggest.
The balance of joint industrial projects, mostly managed from France, is also sobering as soon as you look beyond Airbus as a manufacturer of civil aircraft. The military transporter finally flies, but the project, which is now about to be canceled, came with a delay and at very high costs – partly because, in the name of European sovereignty, engines were newly developed that could easily have been bought in North America. The launch vehicle manufacturer Arianespace is in a crisis; other envisaged projects – a tank builder, a convergence of naval companies dubbed the “Airbus of the Seas” – never materialized before. Now they want to develop a fighter plane and a tank together, but the intentions have yet to be followed by deeds. Again, Paris needs European cooperation to keep the national industry in the market.
Berlin disinterest
Macron’s offers of closer cooperation in many areas, beginning with his Sorbonne speech, long lingered in Berlin – less out of arrogance than out of disinterest. Germany was self-sufficient for a long time. Since February 24, 2022, the Federal Government has once again focused more strongly on Germany’s transatlantic ties. That is correct in itself, but great chancellors like Konrad Adenauer, Helmut Schmidt and Helmut Kohl knew how to maintain close ties with Washington and Paris at the same time.
Yes, since then Europe has changed along with the world. The country’s relative economic weakness undermines France’s claim to leadership, the sense of exclusive ties between Germany and France may be less evident today, and invocations of European sovereignty and anti-American rhetoric seem out of place at a time when dependence on America’s military might is particularly evident is. Macron certainly doesn’t always give the right answers, but he does ask important questions. Berlin would do well to cultivate relations with Paris more.