event description
The State Post Bureau disclosed the data of express delivery in February: from January to February, the national express delivery business volume reached 15.68 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; express delivery revenue reached 157.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%; from January to February, the unit price of express delivery reached 10.0 yuan per piece , a year-on-year decrease of 4.8%; the express delivery concentration ratio CR8 from January to February was 85.3, an increase of 5.4 compared with the same period last year.
event review
[Demand]The demand is not weak in the off-season, and the growth rate has increased month-on-month. From January to February, the volume of express delivery business increased by 19.6% year-on-year, an increase of 8.9 percentage points from December last year, which was higher than the State Post Bureau’s forecast for a growth rate of around 13% for the whole year. From January to February, the national online retail sales of physical goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, an increase of 11.7 percentage points from December last year. Under the initiative of “Celebrating the New Year in Place” and “Don’t Close During the Spring Festival”, the demand for festive special products and festive delivery is strong, and the demand is not weak in the off-season. Recently, the domestic new crown epidemic has spread and spread, and express delivery operations in some areas have been blocked. The growth rate of business volume in March may be under pressure in stages.
【Price】Price performance is strong, and profit elasticity is released. From January to February, the national express single ticket revenue fell by 4.8% year-on-year and increased by 3.5% month-on-month (up 0.34 yuan/piece). Among them, from January to February, the domestic express single ticket revenue fell by 10.4% year-on-year and increased by 2.0% month-on-month (up 0.11 yuan). / piece), the unit price decline has expanded compared with last year’s peak season. From January to February, the volume of Yunda/Yuantong/Shentong increased by 30.7%/27.8%/39.0% year-on-year. Benefiting from the overflow of the volume caused by the integration of Jitu, the growth rate of the number of leading enterprises continued to be higher than the industry. Excluding the impact of the Cainiao wrapping settlement, the single-ticket revenue of Yunda/Yuantong/Shentong from January to February changed by +0.07/+0.11/-0.01 yuan/piece respectively from December last year, and the unit price performance was strong, and the profit elasticity of leading companies is expected to continue to be released .
The competition in the industry has gradually slowed down. It is expected that the unit price in March will fall more than in previous years, and the unit price center will remain stable.
[SF Express]continued to optimize the structure and improve the quality of revenue. From January to February, the business volume of SF Express increased by 1.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly lower than that of the industry; single-ticket revenue increased by 2.2% year-on-year, and the performance of unit price continued to improve year-on-year. The main reasons are: 1) The company actively optimizes the product structure and reduces the number of low-margin products; 2) Since mid-to-late February, the domestic epidemic has gradually spread, and the demand for social logistics (especially B-side express delivery) has been relatively weak.
[Grain-producing area]Yiwu’s volume rose steadily, while South China’s volume rose and prices fell. Yiwu/Guangzhou/Jieyang’s express delivery volume in January-February changed by +15.0%/+35.4%/+40.1% year-on-year, and single-ticket revenue changed by +9.0%/-19.5%/-21.4% year-on-year, respectively. The realization of the core grain-producing areas in the country is differentiated: under the influence of strong policy supervision, the growth rate of Yiwu’s piece volume is lower than the national average growth rate, but the unit price has continued to recover year-on-month, and competition has returned to benign; Guangzhou and Jieyang’s piece volume growth continues to outperform the country, But the unit price drop is relatively large.
[Investment]Industry competition is slowing down, and profitability is expected to be flexible.recentoil priceThe rapid rise has pushed up transportation costs, and the spread of the epidemic has dragged down the growth of the volume of goods. However, under the supervision of the industry, the competition of e-commerce express delivery has gradually slowed down, the unit price performance has been strong, and the certainty of profit recovery is still high. Continue to recommend valuation repair opportunities under the high profit growth of leading e-commerce express companies. The SF Express Yuhang transit terminal has been temporarily closed due to the epidemic, and the increase in the number of pieces may be disrupted in the short term. However, as the company’s capital expenditure gradually declines, the capacity utilization rate will gradually climb, superimposed on the structural optimization of the income side, and the profit margin recovery trend will not change. At present, the valuation risk of SF Express is gradually released, and it is recommended to actively look for bottom allocation opportunities.
risk warning
1. Industry demand is lower than expected.
2. Relevant policies are uncertain.
3. Oil prices and labor costs have risen sharply.
(Article Source:Changjiang Securities）