On the last working day before the Mid-Autumn Festival, domestic refined oil prices rose slightly. On the first working day after the price adjustment, international oil prices continued to maintain a slight upward trend. The rate of change on the first day has reached 2%. It seems to be gradually emerging from the haze of the new crown pneumonia epidemic. The upward trend is a high probability event. However, considering that the momentum of international crude oil prices has gradually weakened, the trend of domestic refined oil prices in the new round of price adjustment cycles is not clear, but it is difficult for international oil prices to repeat the previous sharp decline in the second half of the year. It has gradually become an industry consensus. The domestic refined oil market The traditional “golden nine silver ten” sales season will usher in.
After experiencing a brief decline in August, international oil prices went out of a turbulent upward trend in September, and domestic refined oil prices ushered in the second increase in September.
In an interview with a reporter from China Economic Times, Li Yan, an analyst at Longzhong Information, pointed out that the international oil price trend in September has emerged from the phased decline in mid-August. The decline in international oil prices in August was mainly due to the spread of the delta mutant strain. However, the international oil price gradually recovered in September. It can be seen that the influence of the delta mutant strain on the international oil price is slowly weakening. The major international institutions are optimistic about the future outlook of crude oil prices. It is generally believed that countries The current measures taken to deal with the epidemic can maintain the sound operation of the world economy and the demand for crude oil.
In early September, the major oil-producing country Saudi Arabia lowered its prices for Asian crude oil in October. The U.S. dollar rebounded sharply over the same period, and China announced that it would organize reserves of crude oil. International crude oil prices once fell. However, in the later period, affected by factors such as the fall of EIA crude oil inventories exceeding expectations, the rise of international crude oil continued to increase, which eventually prompted an increase in domestic refined oil prices in September.
Image source: Xinhua News Agency
Jin Lianchuang crude oil analyst Han Zhengji said in an interview with our reporter that due to the tighter supply of refined oil in the international market, oil prices have fluctuated up recently, and the reduction in U.S. Gulf of Mexico crude oil production caused by hurricanes and tropical storms has not recovered so far. Exacerbated the market’s concerns about the supply of crude oil to this place.
Since 2021, international crude oil prices have shown an upward trend in volatility as a whole, and supply-side benefits have become the main factor supporting the rise in oil prices.
Han Zhengji pointed out that while the scale of OPEC+ production cuts remains basically unchanged, Saudi Arabia has implemented additional production cuts. In addition, the prospects for the recovery of global crude oil demand are good, and the market remains in short supply during the peak demand season. In addition, the United States suffered a cold wave, changes in crude oil inventories, and the trend of the US dollar have also had a certain impact on the international crude oil market.
According to the data provided by Jin Lianchuang to our reporter, as of August 2021, the average price of WTI was $64.23/barrel, an increase of $24.88/barrel or 63.24% from 2020; the average price of Brent was $67.08/barrel. , An increase of USD 23.87/barrel, or 55.23%, compared to 2020.
Li Yan analyzed that from the perspective of supply and demand, it is difficult for international crude oil prices to fall sharply. In the supply chain, OPEC+ has maintained a small growth, and the output of the United States has basically remained stable this year. The Iran issue has reached a deadlock and the potential for increased production cannot be released. In the demand link, the pace of oil price recovery will not slow down. The probability of a black swan event happening again this year is very small, and it is difficult to repeat last year’s plunge.
Stabilization
Affected by the continuous rise in international crude oil prices, the domestic market is currently in the traditional peak consumption season of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, and consumer demand in the domestic refined oil market is being released.
Jinlianchuang analyst Wang Yanting believes that the autumn harvest and planting in the northern region have started in September, and the increase in agricultural oil consumption, as well as the start of large-scale outdoor projects and industrial and mining enterprises, has driven the rigid demand for diesel to improve. The Mid-Autumn Festival and the long holiday of November will also bring a wave of demand to the gasoline market.
Before the Mid-Autumn Festival, domestic refined oil prices have been raised twice in a row. Wang Yanting believes that due to the significant increase in international crude oil prices recently, after entering a new round of pricing cycle, the rate of change still maintains a positive development.
Since the beginning of this year, international oil prices have fluctuated upward, and domestic gasoline and diesel prices have also performed well. Li Yan said frankly that the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” has come, but now it is only a small holiday that can significantly drive gasoline demand, and there is still some pressure on whether the gasoline market can maintain its improvement in the later period. Diesel is currently in the peak demand season, and the market outlook is stronger than gasoline. At the same time, the profit margin of the refinery this year is not only better than that of the same period last year, but also better than that of 2019.
At present, the international crude oil market is generally optimistic about the trend of international oil prices in the second half of the year, and the most optimistic forecast has reached 100 US dollars per barrel. In Li Yan’s view, the highest price of Brent crude oil from January to September this year has reached 77 US dollars per barrel. If it can stand firm at 80 US dollars per barrel in the future, it means that international oil prices will enter the era of high oil prices. But to rise to $100/barrel, unless supported by strong factors, it will be extremely difficult. From the bottom point of view, $60/barrel also has strong support.
Han Zhengji believes that in the second half of the year, the trend of international oil prices is mainly affected by several factors, including the recovery of global crude oil demand and the development trend of the epidemic; OPEC’s follow-up plan to reduce production, OPEC+ internal conflicts; global crude oil inventories; U.S. politics Measures and diplomacy, as well as the geopolitical situation in the Middle East.
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