Worrying flashback for inflation. It is fueled by short-term phenomena generated by the recovery of the world economy, starting with the increase in the price of raw materials, sea freight rates and the energy bill. «Despite some foreseeable temporary buffer measures prepared by the Government, the consumer price index in October could show a variation of well over 3% trend – predicts Mariano Bella, director of the Confcommercio research office -. The 2021 average could thus approach 2%, with a drag on 2022 that would push inflation, without considering particular further shocks, above 3% in a rather stable way. For Italy, therefore, a relevant inflationary scenario would take place for at least 10-12 months. A similar profile would show the inflation measured on the basket of goods with a high frequency of purchase. Non-reassuring phenomena and the persistence of these impulses could change the expectations of operators ».
According to an analysis by the traders’ association, the general consumer price index (Nic) reached 2% in August, a level it hadn’t reached for 8 years. A further acceleration to 2.6% was observed for September. And for the moment, the price increases of recent months have not yet been discharged on finished products.
The crux is what will happen to the prices of the main commodity exchanges. An acceleration of the prices or a shock crisis could fuel inflation which will reach 4% next spring, with accentuations for that measured on the basket of goods with a high frequency of purchase.
In all cases there is a transfer of purchasing power from Italy abroad for raw materials, energy and freight, a worrying phenomenon because it erodes the spending power of families. “It is an unexpected inflation that reduces the purchasing power of families both in terms of income and liquidity, which, according to the Bank of Italy, has grown by 100 billion between the end of 2019 and the first half of 2021” explains Bella who wonders about the possible countermeasures launched by the ECB to reduce liquidity. “There could be restrictions on the purchase of government bonds with a slowdown, then a stop on purchases to end up with the reduction of stocks,” he explains. On the other hand, with transitory and not particularly intense inflation, there would be no need for intervention.
According to the director of the Confcommercio Research Office, the only strategy that can already be pursued today is to strengthen economic growth, so that a large part of the inflationary impulses is absorbed into the change in the aggregate margins of companies. A very important reason to accelerate with the process of reforms and investment, public and private, supported with European and national funds.