The liquidity available to households is growing, but uncertainty is holding back the resumption of consumption, prompting Italians to postpone spending 59 billion euros. This is estimated by Confesercenti, using the ERC econometric model. Between restrictions and precautionary savings, Italians’ liquid deposits increased by 74 billion in 18 months. Liquidity accumulated above all in 2020, the year of the lockdown, which recorded an extraordinary increase in deposits (71 billion, + 6.9%), and then continued in the first six months of 2021 on variations in line with the pre-pandemic figure ( +3 billion and + 0.3% on a monthly average).
The increase in liquidity is attributable to the combination of the collapse in consumption (-112 billion euros in 2020 alone) and the support measures adopted by the Government, which significantly reduced the economic impact of the crisis: Bank of Italy estimates indicate how the subsidies made it possible to limit the decline in household disposable income to 4%, compared to a 10% reduction that would have been observed in the absence of compensatory measures.
The increase in liquidity was not generated by an increase in income, which on the contrary fell in real terms by 2.6% in 2020, with a much more pronounced contraction for self-employed workers (-12.2%).
“Italians find themselves in a paradoxical situation: bank accounts are growing, but families are getting impoverished. And they fear the future: summer has brought a return of confidence, but there are still many unknowns”, comments Patrizia De Luise, President Confesercenti.
“Starting from the personal economic conditions: the reduction in incomes was general, but for self-employed and private employees it was particularly significant. jobs, especially in those sectors where the crisis is never over. Such as, for example, organized tourism: with a season driven almost entirely by domestic travelers, travel agencies and tour operators have remained stationary for the second consecutive summer . If the social safety nets were not renewed, which should be exhausted in November, tens of thousands of people would lose their jobs. It is therefore essential to restart giving more certainty at work. First of all, renewing and extending, where possible, the tools to support work. But there are also facilities for companies that manage to hire. A problem that must be addressed (also) through the taxation: cutting the tax wedge is fine, but we need an intervention aimed at reducing the cost of labor for companies of all sizes, as well as support for micro-enterprises and the self-employed, the most affected by the crisis “.