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Confidence in the economic recovery is not just a post-pandemic rebound

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More strength than fear. Italian entrepreneurship, which with its structural vitality has kept the country of public debt and annuities standing in the last thirty years, has restarted itself in the most profound, immaterial and irreplaceable factor of production: trust. And, this happened despite a double constraint: the problem of raw materials and semi-finished products, which in many production segments are lacking because they are absorbed by Asian manufacturing (the word of fear for the Western economy is now “shortage”) , and community policies inspired by an abstract and electrophilic environmentalism which, bordering on self-harm, are causing an increase in energy costs across all European manufacturing and the deconstruction of a fundamental sector such as the automotive sector.

The Istat report on consumer and business confidence and the analysis of the industrial sectors by Intesa Sanpaolo-Prometeia establish some fixed points, useful for anchoring the discourse on the Italian economy to a rationality plan, a method that – in compression of the souls typical of a unique historical period such as that of the pandemic – it is often clouded by mixing everything into an indistinct whole, attributing the same meaning to civil and environmental dramas such as Ilva stranded in semi-nationalization and to planned and motivated closures in public for years like that of Whirlpool in Naples, up to the sudden liquidation of factories by foreign investment funds which, without any attention to industrial relations and in contempt of any economic and social etiquette, have sent emails and WhatsApps of dismissal to workers one minute after acquiring the legal possibility to do so

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First point: the improvement of confidence is not a phenomenon of optical illusion and it is not a simple rebound following the depression of recent months. Its consistency is evidenced by the peak in March 2005, when Istat began to monitor the emotional-strategic attitude of the industrial system as a whole. The 116.3 points are, at the same time, an arrival point and an important starting point: just think that, in May 2020, the business confidence index had fallen to 53.4 points. So things are changing. It is true that entire sectors – such as construction – are financed by the tax authorities with tax bonuses. But it is equally true that, once again, the sectors most exposed to international competition are doing well.

In particular – and this is the second point that must be absorbed and expressed in any rational discourse on the Italian economy today – the analysis by Intesa Sanpaolo-Prometeia highlights how our industrial fabric expresses a comparative advantage – in several of its performances – compared to to the French and the German. Of course, the problem at the moment is the lack of homogeneity between sectors, with fashion for example in significant difficulty. But, really, the element that must be emphasized is how, in the articulated and complex mechanism of the international economy that can be observed as a sort of techno-manufacturing and financial-innovative mechanism, Italian industry has not been halved, canceled, deleted. And, this, despite the violent reshaping of international balances and the need of the Western and Atlantic world – Europe and the United States – to find new measures and new adjustments, in the face of the greater strength and awareness of the Asian and Pacific world.

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In this sense, the greatest attention should be paid to a table accompanying the Istat survey on business confidence. The degree of use of the plants is now around 77.4 per cent. The reasons given by entrepreneurs as an obstacle to production are interesting: only two out of a hundred indicate financial reasons, which means that the low-cost money guaranteed by the ECB and the public money considered a remedy to the pandemic are having an effect in running factories; on the other hand, among those who note a slowdown in production, 14.5% indicate the inadequacy of systems and especially of materials as an obstacle. In particular, therefore, the circle closes with respect to the issue of procurement in the new geo-politics and in the new geo-economy.

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