Confindustria, GDP 2023 slowing down. It will be better in 2024
According to the forecasts of the Confindustria Study Center, the trend of the Italian GDP in 2023 (+0.4%) is in sharp slowdown compared to the average of 2022. “But it is more favorable than assumed just a few months ago, when a zero annual change was forecast for the Italian economy”, reads the Forecast Report “The Italian economy between rate hikes and high inflation”.
According to the Association of Industrialists, “in 2024, on the other hand, thanks to the return of inflation, the less restrictive monetary policy and the improvement in the international context, there will be a better trend also in Italy (+1.2% per year)”, explains the study center.
There is optimism despite the energy shock
“The upward revision for 2023 compared to the Confindustria scenario last October (by +0.4 points), is entirely explained by the better-than-expected performance in the second half of 2022, despite the energy shock: “this raised the l positive legacy left to the new year’s GDP” reads the Report.
“In particular, in the 4th quarter of 2022 Italy limited the downward adjustment to a minimum. The path of GDP, however, is not straight: it is estimated that the Italian economy has suffered a slight contraction again in the 1st quarter of 2023, mainly due to the delayed effects of inflation on consumption and a pause in investments after the jump at the end of 2022” continues the analysis.
“From the second half of 2023, the easing of inflationary pressures and a reduction in interest rates should favor a positive trend in GDP until the end of 2024 – concludes the Confindustria study center -. A moderate growth profile, but slightly higher than the pre-crisis average thanks to the first positive effects of investments and reforms of the PNRR on the expansion potential of our economy”.
(ITALPRESS).