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Confindustria: “Half of the jobs lost due to the pandemic recovered”

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ROME. The recovery is there, but the end of the Covid crisis is not yet on the horizon. “The number of people employed, after reaching a minimum in the first quarter of 2021 (-811 thousand units compared to the fourth of 2019), recovered almost half of the fall (+ 398 thousand units in the two months July-August on the beginning of 2021, but still -413 thousand compared to the end of 2019) », calculates the Confindustria Study Center.


Levels
In the autumn report on the economic forecasts for the Italian economy we read: “If the growth in activity levels will continue in the last quarter of the year, albeit at a less lively pace”. The economists of via dell’Astronomia add that “the total number of employed people will record a positive variation of + 0.3% on average for the year in 2021”. In terms of “AU”, the statistical data of full-time equivalent work units, “the expected annual change is in line with that of GDP, and equal to + 6.1%”, while a +3.5 is expected % in 2002.
High unemployment until 2022

The Confindustria Study Center sees “high unemployment until 2022”: the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 9.9% in 2021 then to 9.6% in 2022, from 9.2% in 2020 but also to be compared with 10% in 2019. In the scenario of the forecasts for the Italian economy, “despite the positive outlook” there are “some risks that are mainly downward and concern various elements of uncertainty”.
Evolution of the pandemic
The “main risk” is on the Covid front, in the event that the evolution of the pandemic leads “to the adoption of new travel restrictions”. This risk “would have a negative and very rapid impact on the confidence of operators, on consumption and therefore also on investments and employment”. There is also the crux of the “important shortages of raw materials and semi-finished products” that emerged from the second quarter of the year, considered “of a temporary nature”. But the danger is that they are “only partially so and that therefore they become more structural, slowing down economic activity in a more significant and prolonged way”. Then “the dynamics of prices are expected to be contained in Italy, given that recent pressures have been fueled almost exclusively by the rise in commodities, especially energy, which is expected to ease in the course of 2022. If this were not the case and persistent shortages would arise of supply, the inflationary push could take on a more structural character in Europe and Italy, inducing the ECB to anticipate the monetary tightening, which at the moment has not yet been defined. A premature rate hike in the Eurozone would have undesirable effects on the cost of public debt, and therefore very negative impacts, especially for a country like Italy with a high debt ».
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The Confindustria Sudi Center also warns that «the full effectiveness of the NRP is subject to the identification of an efficient allocation of resources, compliance with the schedule and the methods for implementing investments and the numerous planned reforms. The failure, even if only partial, of one of these elements would imply a lower allocation of resources upstream or their dispersion downstream ». Another risk highlighted: “The profound difficulty of various companies operating in the Chinese real estate market, in particular Evergrande, is increasing fears that the sector, which accounts for 14% of GDP, will suffer serious repercussions, with the risk of a crisis at a national level, which could have very negative indirect effects also on China’s trading partners and, more generally, on the world economy ”.

Deficit goals

«The government, in the Update to the Def (Nadef) presented at the end of September, has improved the deficit targets and revised the deficit and debt trend to improve. The programmatic deficit target for 2022 was set at 5.6% of GDP, while the trend at 4.4%, down by one point compared to the estimate presented in the April Def (5.4%). This makes it possible to free up resources and therefore to implement, with the next Budget Law, a net expansive maneuver on 2022 for about 1.2 points of nominal GDP, equal to 22.7 billion euros “, specify the economists of Viale dell ‘ Astronomy.

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