The industrialists see black on the Italian economy due to the consequences of the war in Ukraine. The Confindustria Study Center estimates a decline in Italian industrial production in March (-2.0%), after the statistical rebound in February (+ 4.0%) linked to the fall in December and January. “The prices of commodities, in particular that of natural gas (+ 698% on average in April compared to pre-Covid) and del Brent (+56%), they are still high, slowing down production along all the supply chains. The surveys on entrepreneurial sentiment and the downsized dynamics of orders and business expectations do not suggest significant improvements in the short term “, says the CSC. In addition, April should also have shown a further decline in production (-2.5%) which “brings the change acquired for the 2nd quarter to -2.5%, compromising the dynamics of the Italian GDP in the second quarter, after the decline in the first” in which Italia spa recorded a decrease of 0.2 per cent, less serious than expected.
According to the CSC rapid investigation, “the factors that hindered Italian production activities even before the war continue to affect (price increases of raw materials, scarcity of materials), which in the first quarter proved to be very relevant. The perceived insufficiency of implants and / or materials has significantly worsened. The judgments on the main obstacles to exports are still negative. The percentage of manufacturing companies that reported difficulties in terms of higher costs and prices and longer delivery times remained high, although decreasing compared to the fourth quarter of 2021 “.
These are the elements behind the decline “of the business confidence recorded between March and April (in particular the index for manufacturing ones reached 110.0, the lowest value since May 2021) and the further decline in the manufacturing PMI (up to 54.5 points, the lowest point from January 2021) “.
What worries industrialists, from a perspective point of view, is the “significant decrease in the judgments and expectations on orders (both domestic and foreign, the latter in the area of contraction after five consecutive months of expansion) and in the judgments and expectations on production levels of manufacturing companies, whose value had not touched such low levels since March of last year. The index of expectations on the Italian economy recorded a drop from +0.6 at the beginning of the year to -34.8 in April, a comparable value to that of December 2020 “. At the gates, in short, there are no immediate turns: “The worsening of the uncertainty index of economic policywhich for Italy rose to 139.1 points in March and then settled on a slightly lower value in April (129.2 points, + 28.5% compared to the 4th quarter of 2021), increases the risks of a further weakening “.