MILANO – After the great collapse, the ascent. There Confindustria sees the signs of recovery of the Italian economy overthrown by Covid, which in recent days have also been certified by Istat which first identified the return of the turnover of Italian companies to ante-pandemic levels and then traced a consistent recovery of confidence on the part of businesses and households. “Italy begins the long narrow path of recovery: first positive signs in services, solid industry”: this is how the study center in viale dell’Astronomia entitles the monthly report on the flash economy.
GDP is “on the right track”, inevitably related in this May to the gradual loosening of restrictions and a “significant” pace of vaccinations. For entrepreneurs “this makes it possible in the second quarter (the one that runs from April to June, ed) a first, small, increase in GDP, which will be followed by a strong rebound in the third and fourth of more than + 4%, which will be consolidated thanks to the impact that will come from investments financed by the European “Next generation” plan. simplifications and the approval of the financing framework by all member countries, for Italy there is the concrete prospect of collecting the first 25 billion already in July.
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Despite the stagnation in March, the industry “is ahead” and in the second period of the year the forecast of “a positive change” by the CSC remains: “Production expectations are sharply increasing and stocks are rapidly decumulating; this indicates a demand beyond forecasts and a necessary re-accumulation of stocks , which will support production “. IS “something is moving” even in services, a sector that has suffered most from the containment measures of the virus. “The increase in demand for services, which is expected to accentuate in the summer quarter, is explained by the recovery in travel and consumption outside the home, as well as by the reopening in sectors linked to the tourism and culture chain (museums, art galleries) “.
Waiting for the resumption of layoffs, which according to Bankitalia’s latest estimates carries with it a potential weight of 577,000 contracts to be closed – including the physiological ones prevented by the blockade and those linked to the restructuring of companies affected by the crisis – we see “a slow recovery of the labor market in Italy. Between January and April, about 130 thousand job positions were created, net of terminations, against a very negative figure (-230 thousand) in the same months of 2020 (+ 260 thousand in 2019) “.
Between the good performance of leasing – with cars and capital goods recording the best numbers – and the real estate sector which “has started to grow again”, the CSC also notes “positive data for investments“. On the other hand, the financial context remains favorable, with European rates still low thanks to the presence on the market of the ECB which mitigates the growth effect of the cost of money seen in the US, where, on the other hand, the recovery of inflation and the economy in general are further ahead. For this reason, the CSC invites you to do not fear inflationary spirals also in Italy, where the occupation remains “compressed”, because the comparison with America does not hold up.
The report is littered with other positive spies: in fact, there is talk of a “export in salute”, restarted in March, returning to pre-crisis levels, in the context of “robust world trade”, with the “awakening of services” that is also seen in the rest of Europe and “high confidence in the US”: the States remain the polar star for the global recovery, even more so after the announcement of Biden’s maxi-tax plan for next year.
There is no lack of possible tension elements. In addition to the consumption by Italian families which remain “still far from pre-crisis levels” but are still “close to the turning point” thanks to the reopenings (the CSC estimates that there has been an excess of forced-saving for the lockdowns of 26 billion, ready to turn into consumption), at the macro level they are i price increases of raw materials to represent the dangerous grain of sand in the mechanism of the recovery. “The price of Brent – notes the report – remained at around 68 dollars a barrel in May, at pre-Covid levels, thanks to the rebalancing of the market now reached, with crude oil inventories falling to the values of early 2020. In April, on the other hand, the other commodities showed new strong increases (wheat + 3.2%, copper + 3.7%, iron + 6.9%). For copper, the historic peak of 2011 is just 5.5% ” .
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