Original title: The consumer sector continues to be under pressure, and institutions are optimistic about high-end liquor
On September 27, the focus of the stock market was on the food and beverage sector, with the liquor sector performing the most prominently. In addition, the dairy industry, soft drinks, food processing, pharmaceutical commerce and other race tracks are also popular.
Judging from the after-hours transaction data,Kweichow Moutai、Yili shareswithShanxi FenjiuReceived net purchases of 1.145 billion yuan, 316 million yuan and 248 million yuan in northbound funds respectively,WuliangyeIt ranks first among the ten most traded stocks in Shenzhen Stock Connect.
PenghuaChina Securities Liquor IndexFund manager Yan Dong said that the signs of recovery in the wine sector have already been shown last week, and today’s increase is more than expected, which is more affected by news.
In the morning of September 27th,Luzhou LaojiaoIssue stock incentive plan. Yan Dong believes that stock incentives bind the company’s performance and management income, which is conducive to strengthening employee cohesion and boosting market confidence.
At the extraordinary shareholders meeting held in Moutai last Friday, the new chairman Ding Xiongjun proposed a five-line development path, that is, the “blue line” corresponds to the goal vision and blueprint plan, and strives to build a world-class listed company; the “green line” corresponds to ecological priority and green The development path regards the production area as the company’s core barrier; the “white line” corresponds to the determination of reform and innovation. In addition to management reform and asset management reform, the core is the reform of the marketing system and price system; the “purple line” corresponds to cultural connotations, etc. The construction of soft power consolidates the advantage of the barriers of brand heritage; the “red line” corresponds to the two important bottom lines of safety and environmental protection.
Cinda Securities pointed out in a research report released on September 26, “Moutai’s Extraordinary General Meeting of Shareholders was successfully held. Chairman Ding Xiongjun expressed his determination to reform price and volume issues. The company did not evade the sharp contradictions in the market and showed a positive attitude to resolve. Price issues must be market-oriented and legalized, volume must be maintained in a tightly balanced state, and production expansion must adhere to the ecological red line, releasing a positive signal that Moutai’s operations are expected to improve and stable and high-quality development. If Moutai’s valuation improves, it will benefit the entire food and beverage industry. Valuation of the sector”.
In addition, the rebound in the consumption sector has also been superimposed on the market’s National Day consumption expectations. Yan Dong said that from the seller’s survey, the impact of epidemics and floods on consumption is more obvious, but mid-to-high-end liquor is more resilient, and has confidence in the liquor consumption market during the National Day.
Since the beginning of this year, the consumer sector has corrected sharply, and popular tracks such as food and beverages and medicine have collectively stalled. Many apparent fund managers have bleak performance due to heavy storage of consumer medicines, but it seems that there has been a turnaround recently.
The market swings back and forth in various themes, and the seesaw effect is significant. From technology growth stocks to cyclical stocks, these popular tracks have accumulated too many gains under the pursuit of funds, and the current price/performance ratio is not good. After the previous adjustments in the consumer sector, the valuation has entered a reasonable range. The current dynamic valuation of food and beverages is in the historical 40% quintile. Many funds have deployed the consumption track against the market, and their investment value has been highlighted.
Wind data shows that since the third quarter of this year, a total of 9 consumer-themed funds have been issued (consolidated calculation of A/C shares), including Huabao Food ETF Link, Huatai Zijin CSI Subdivision Food and Beverage, China-Canada Consumer Choice, Yinhua Fujiu Food Beverage Selection, Celestica CSI Food and Beverage ETF, GF Consumption Leading, Soochow Consumption Growth, BOC Xin Consumption Growth and ICBC Food and Beverage Mix.
ICBC Food and Beverage Mix is “by investing in listed companies in the food and beverage industry with strong competitive advantages to grasp investment opportunities in the process of China’s economic growth and consumer consumption upgrades.” ICBC Credit Suisse Consumer Industry Researcher Yuan Chenmin said that the fundamentals of the consumer industry are stable Very high, with rich sub-sectors, including cycle, growth, and value attributes. It has defensive properties in a bear market, and takes into account growth and high flexibility in a bull market. With the economy recovering and the consumption upgrade factors added, food and beverages have growth opportunities.
Star Stone Investment believes that in the medium and long term, the follow-up consumption will also have certain support. On the one hand, the trend of stable consumption restoration this year will not be completely destroyed by the local epidemic. On September 26, the Ministry of Commerce stated that the total retail sales of consumer goods for the whole year is expected to reach 44 trillion yuan, an increase of about 12.5% over 2020 and an increase of about 8% over 2019. The overall momentum of the annual consumption recovery has not changed.
On the other hand, consumption has now become a policy focus. Since September, domestic consumption policies have been continuously introduced, and the Ministry of Commerce has also stated that the next step will be to launch a series of consumption promotion measures from three aspects: stabilizing key consumption of bulk consumption, promoting the development of new types of consumption, and upgrading the consumption platform. With the improvement of the transmission of domestic corporate profits to residents’ income, the gradual implementation of domestic common wealth policies and the gradual implementation of industrial policies focusing on the rigid needs of the people’s livelihood, it is expected that more consumer sub-sectors will see an improvement in prosperity. In addition, historically, there is a higher probability of rising consumer assets in the fourth quarter.
Wu Junfeng, Investment Director of Qinghequan Assets, believes that the inflection point of consumption has not yet arrived. Consumption stabilization and rebound require two conditions. One is the inflection point of per capita disposable income, and no signs of improvement have been observed through leading indicators such as social finance; the second is the inflection point of consumer preferences, and consumption has a great inertia, and it is difficult to quickly emerge an inflection point. , And the recurrence of the epidemic restrained mass consumption. Continued pressure on consumption is a relatively certain trend in the coming months. Of course, high-end consumption has its own logic and resilience, such as high-end liquor, because of its scarcity and consumption upgrade factors, it needs to be treated separately.
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Editor in charge: Chen Jiahui
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