Market review of last week (May 13, 2022 to May 20, 2022, the same below): the convertible bond index rose. The convertible bond index rose. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by 0.99% last week, and the average daily trading volume (including EB) was 163.22 billion yuan, up 1.43% month-on-month.same periodCSI 300 The index rose 2.23%,GEM refers toNumber rose 2.51%,SSE 50 Up 2.17%, the National Securities 2000 rose 2.76%.
From the plate point of view, the plate is mainly up. Machinery Manufacturing (3.11%), Cycle (1.71%), TMT (1.52%), Green Building (1.18%), Electricity Delivery (0.97%), Consumer Staples (0.92%), Consumer Discretionary (0.64%), Finance (0.20%) sector rose; Pharmaceuticals (-0.32%) sector fell.
Valuations have compressed, and the premium rate of pure bonds has risen.After excluding the targets with a price greater than 150 and a premium rate greater than 100%, as of May 20, 95~110 yuan of parity couponsConvert stockThe average premium rate was 45.62%, down 0.57 percentage points from the previous month; the average premium rate of pure bonds was 22.66%, up 1.07 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, the conversion premium rates of convertible bonds with prices below 115 yuan, 115-125 yuan, 125-150 yuan, 150-170 yuan, and 170 yuan or more are 60.58%, 30.15%, 20.97%, 17.48%, and 14.14%, respectively, compared with the previous ones. A week respectively -0.15, -0.95, +3.14, +5.09, +1.82 percentage points.
Some key industry information observation
Steel prices fell last week. Last week, the MySpic composite steel price index fell by 1.50% month-on-month, the national blast furnace operating rate was 45.99%, the same month-on-month, and the Hebei blast furnace operating rate was 34.60%, the same month-on-month.
The settlement price of coking coal and coke futures rose, up 4.35% and 0.89% week-on-week respectively. The cement price index rose slightly, down 0.23% week-on-week. In terms of the average cement price of PO42.5, the Northeast region was flat, the East China region was down 1.13%, the Southwest region was down 0.50%, the North China region was down 0.15%, the Northwest region was down 0.51%, and the Central South region was down 1.04%.
Polyester filament POY spread widened. As of May 20, the POY price of polyester filament in East China was 8,525 yuan/ton, and the price difference was 1,024 yuan/ton.
The PV composite price index rose slightly. As of May 16, the composite price index of the photovoltaic industry rose by 0.43% week-on-week, with modules, silicon wafers, polysilicon,BatteryThe film price index rose by 0.46%, unchanged, up 0.78%, and up 0.41%, respectively.
Pork prices rose slightly. The average wholesale price of pork last week was 20.97 yuan/kg, up 2.54% from the previous week. In addition, the profit of self-bred and self-cultivation pigs and outsourced piglets increased last week.
Equity drives the index to rebound, and the high valuation of convertible bonds remains to be digested
At present, the price of convertible bonds has been adjusted compared with the previous period, but the premium rate is high, and the valuation is still to be digested. From the perspective of premium rate and price level matching, the convertible bond market is currently more similar to March-April 2020, when the epidemic spread, domestic and foreign easing continued, and the valuation of convertible bonds continued to rise, which reflected the sentiment of rising ahead of schedule. , then the bond market turned bullish to bear,currencyThe policy turned neutral, and the valuation was actively compressed. The stock market rose sharply in July 2020, and the valuation of convertible bonds was further digested. At present, the bond market has moved from a bull market to a volatile market, and the liberalization of credit continues to increase. For example, the LPR cut interest rates last Friday, the monetary policy is loose to take into account the internal and external balance, and the equity market is filling the market, which is different from 20 years in terms of economic and policy environment. .
In the future, we will mainly focus on equity market driving, poor positioning of new and old coupons, game opportunities on terms, and beware of valuation compression and weak credit qualification risks. From the perspective of investment clock, stock market valuation, and adjustment time and space, A-shares have a high probability of entering the bottom area of a cycle, and the valuation of convertible bonds is highly restrictive and flexible, but there is still a certain allocation value in the medium term. Periodic emotional lows may lead to a low positioning of high-quality new bonds for listing, and follow-up repairs are worthy of attention.In addition, the number of downgraded convertible bonds has increased this year, but perhaps due to expectations, there are also moreCompany AnnouncementNo repairs. It still takes time to digest the high valuation of convertible bonds, and the risk of weak credit qualifications was also indicated in the weekly report “Convertible bonds with high valuations, pay attention to low-positioning new bonds” on May 15.
It is recommended to pay attention to dips in stability, but flexibility still needs to be considered.The industry focuses on stable growth related + post-epidemic repair logic (new and old infrastructure, finance and real estate related, consumption, etc.), and there are many growth adjustments, you can pay attentionperformanceOpportunities to increase sustainable targets.target attentionbank: Suyin, Nanyin and Chengyin, upstream coal pays attention to Jingyuan, new infrastructure photovoltaic pays attention to 22,digital economyPay attention to Skyworth, etc., pig breeding pays attention to Wen’s, and later cycles such as veterinary drugs.brokerageThe low valuation of the sector can pay attention to opportunities. Consumers pay attention to Qiaqia and so on. The new coupons focus on Seiko, Hangyang, Fulai, etc.
Risk warning: fundamental changes, stock market volatility, accelerated supply, tightening liquidity, credit risk.
(Article Source:Haitong Securities）