Milano – For days the major Italian parties have been arguing about the “gift of treasure a Unicredit» – copyright Matteo Salvini -, as a financial dowry to buy Mps. But the Italian politicians seem to have vague ideas about its amount: which is not secondary, to assess whether it is a “gift” and what it is substantiated.
The final algebra could exceed 6 billion euros: how much will depend on the Treasury’s determination to close the negotiation anyway, on the severity of theEurope (which is responsible for controlling the 5.5 billion in 2017 state aid to Mps), from the reluctance of the buyers, and paradoxically also from the vetoes on the protection of personnel, of the coat of arms (the oldest in the world), of the large Sienese headquarters that the politicians bring to the government. Maybe the same politicians who then shout the “gift of the state” with the other mouth.
Monte dei Paschi, Unicredit breaks the delay: deals with the Treasury but wants a dowry of 6 billion
by Andrea Greco
Perhaps this is why the Treasury and Unicredit have so far been careful not to provide even the hint of a figure, reserving this cinema for the positive outcome of the confrontation that will take place throughout August.
Among professionals and consultants active on the dossier, however, the quantities are more or less known and written: there are at least six addenda, the final sum of which will depend on the negotiation. The first is the “Dta”, the tax assets of MPS that will become tax credits (that is, accounting money): and amount to 2.2 billion euros net if the wedding between the two banks is announced by December.
It is a benefit renewed by the decree Support bis to encourage mergers (especially with the MPS object), but the Treasury believes that the real burden is a fraction of the figure, since it is a mere advance on future taxes that MPS would have compensated when it started to make profits again. The second, and first in terms of amount, is what is needed to align the Sienese assets acquired with the Unicredit equity reserve standards, in order to obtain the buyer’s “equity neutrality”.
Mps-Unicredit, the Treasury goes ahead but sets the stakes: “Protecting the city and work”
by Roberto Petrini
Today Mps has a reserve rate (Cet 1) below 10%, Unicredit is a class leader with 15.5%. If of the 80 billion subject to the Unicredit appraisal, it bought 70, the differential to be covered would be 3.8 billion. In fact, a sum that the market estimates between 3 and 4 billion will be the subject of an upcoming recapitalization by the MPS shareholders (Treasury in the lead, and has 64%).
Then there are the non-performing loans and “some performing loans not considered interesting in terms of yield or level of concentration”, which the head of Unicredit Andrea Orcel made it clear on Friday that he will leave out. There is about 5 billion, which will likely pass to the public operator Amco, to be recapitalized as needed (technical estimate, between 1 and 2 billion).
Then there are the risks of legal disputes for the lawsuits brought by MPS shareholders, who have lost 20 billion in capital in 13 years: 6.2 billion requests remain in the balance sheet, and about one billion could be used by the Treasury to silence the riotous by closing “grave” transactions. A method, says those who work on the lawsuits, to avoid that the lawyers of the former Sienese partners can retaliate against Unicredit. This practice is, moreover, provided for by the civil code, when a “non-proportional spin-off” (this is the working scheme) takes place without a liquidation procedure.
But the government, starting with Mario Draghi, is strongly inclined to avoid liquidations, as they would involve the involvement of MPS shareholders and bondholders in the losses (the infamous bail in). Fifth element, the redundancies: the unions are expecting about 6 thousand, and equipping the voluntary fund will cost up to 1.2 billion. Sixth point, the 1 billion penalty for “change of control” to be paid to Axa, the French policy giant that has sales agreements on the MPS network. Unicredit does not pay it: but it could help mitigate it by offering future collaborations.
It is on these forks that the final nine-zero balance of the final dowry will be formed. And a lot of that money would be useful anyway, if MPS continued on its way alone. The Treasury, at least, could benefit from future write-backs, as it should have a stake of up to 5% in the capital of the Unicredit-Mps pole. Today on the stock exchange the Sienese shares of the Treasury are worth 700 million, a tenth of the money spent over the years.
.