original title:[收盘评论]NYMEX market on November 11: Crude oil futures closed higher, the market looks forward to increasing demand in a few months
Wenhua Finance
On November 10th, international oil prices closed slightly higher on Thursday. The market was entangled in concerns about the strengthening of the U.S. dollar and rising inflation in the United States. Earlier, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) lowered its oil demand forecast for 2021 due to high oil prices.
At 14:30 on November 11, New York time (03:30 on November 12, Beijing time), NYMEX’s most actively traded December crude oil futures contract rose by US$0.25, or 0.31%, to settle at US$81.59 per barrel, from 80.20. The dollar rebounded from its intraday low.
ICE January Brent crude oil futures rose 0.23 US dollars, or 0.28%, and settled at US$82.87 per barrel, after falling to US$81.66 during the session.
The December RBOB gasoline futures contract rose 2.06 cents, or 0.90%, to settle at $2.3178 per gallon.
The December heating oil futures contract fell 0.5 cents, or 0.20%, to settle at $2.4471 per gallon.
The oil market rebounded in late trading as the market believes that demand after the epidemic will further increase in the next few months.
Jim Ritterbusch, president of Ritterbusch and Associates LLC, said, “As global oil demand exceeds new production, the factors required for the oil market to reach the top are still difficult to determine, and oil prices will reach new highs.”
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Thursday lowered its global oil demand forecast for the last quarter of 2021, as high energy prices inhibited the economic recovery from the new crown epidemic, but the organization has maintained a strong growth in 2022 above the pandemic Prediction of the previous level.
OPEC said that the average oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be 99.49 million barrels per day, a decrease of 330,000 barrels per day from the previous month’s forecast. This year’s demand growth forecast is lowered by 160,000 barrels to 5.65 million barrels per day.
OPEC said in the report: “Currently, it is believed that due to rising energy prices, the pace of recovery will slow in the fourth quarter of 2021.” OPEC also lowered the demand in China and India to lower than expected levels.
According to OPEC’s forecast, global oil daily consumption is expected to exceed 100 million barrels in the third quarter of 2022, three months later than last month’s forecast.
On Wednesday, Brent crude oil futures fell 2.5%, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell 3.3%. Earlier reports showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.2% year-on-year in October to the highest level in 30 years, pushing the U.S. dollar higher, and after the U.S. government released some strategic oil reserves, U.S. crude oil inventories rose.
US President Biden said earlier that he has asked the White House National Economic Committee (NEC) to work hard to reduce energy prices and the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) to crack down on market manipulation in the energy industry and to reverse inflation with greater efforts.
The U.S. dollar hit its highest in nearly 16 months against the euro and other currencies on Thursday, after the United States announced its highest inflation reading in 30 years, sparking bets that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy faster than expected.
Supported by demand recovery and OPEC and its allies supply constraints, Brent crude oil prices have risen by more than 60% this year and hit a three-year high of $86.70 on October 25.
But Norbert Rucker, economic director of Julius Baer, said in a report that oil prices appear to be stabilizing below US$85 per barrel.
“We can see early signs of the market’s transition to easing, especially as the supply of shale oil in the United States and oil countries picks up, oil demand should gradually increase.”
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